顶刊速递 | JPE：政治经济学杂志 2024 Vol 132, No 11 目录 及 内容提要

内容提要

01. Growth Off the Rails: Aggregate Productivity Growth in Distorted Economies ( 偏离轨道的增长：扭曲经济中的总生产率增长 )

作者：Richard Hornbeck 等

摘要：We examine aggregate economic gains in the United States as the railroad network expanded in the nineteenth century. Using data from the Census of Manufactures, we estimate relative increases in county aggregate productivity from relative increases in county market access. In general equilibrium, we find that the railroads substantially increased national aggregate productivity. By accounting for input distortions, we estimate much larger aggregate economic gains from the railroads than previous estimates. Our estimates highlight how broadly-used infrastructure or technologies can have much larger economic impacts when there are inefficiencies in the economy.[ 机器译文：我们考察了十九世纪铁路网络扩张时美国的总体经济收益。使用制造业人口普查的数据，我们根据县市场准入的相对增加来估计县总生产力的相对增加。在一般均衡中，我们发现铁路大幅提高了国家总生产率。通过考虑投入扭曲，我们估计铁路带来的总经济收益比之前的估计要大得多。我们的估计凸显了当经济效率低下时，广泛使用的基础设施或技术可以产生更大的经济影响。]

02. Safe Assets ( 安全资产 )

作者：Markus K. Brunnermeier 等

摘要：The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flows, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete markets setting. This lowers the issuers’ interest burden. As idiosyncratic risk rises during recessions, so does the value of the service flows bestowing the safe asset with a negative β. The resulting exorbitant privilege resolves government debt valuation puzzles and allows the government to run a permanent (primary) deficit without ever paying back its debt, but the government faces a debt Laffer curve.[ 机器译文：安全资产的价格不仅反映了预期的贴现未来现金流，还反映了未来的服务流，因为再交易允许在不完整的市场环境中部分保险特有风险。这减轻了发行人的利息负担。随着经济衰退期间特有风险上升，赋予安全资产负β的服务流价值也会上升。由此产生的过高特权解决了政府债务估值难题，并允许政府在不偿还债务的情况下保持永久（基本）赤字，但政府面临债务拉弗曲线。]

03. Private Monopoly and Restricted EntryEvidence from the Notary Profession ( 私人垄断与限制入境——来自公证行业的证据 )

作者：Frank Verboven 等

摘要：We study entry restrictions in a private monopoly: the Latin notary system. Under this widespread system, the state grants notaries exclusive rights to certify important economic transactions, including real estate. To uncover the current policy goals behind the geographic entry restrictions, we develop an empirical entry model that incorporates a spatial demand model and a multioutput production model. We find that the entry restrictions serve primarily producer interests and give only a small weight to consumer surplus. We show how reform would generate considerable welfare improvements and imply a substantial redistribution toward consumers without threatening geographic coverage.[ 机器译文：我们研究私人垄断中的进入限制：拉丁公证制度。在这个广泛的制度下，国家授予公证人认证重要经济交易（包括房地产）的独家权利。为了揭示地理进入限制背后的当前政策目标，我们开发了一个经验进入模型，该模型结合了空间需求模型和多产出生产模型。我们发现，进入限制主要服务于生产者利益，而只给予消费者剩余很小的权重。我们展示了改革将如何带来可观的福利改善，并意味着在不威胁地理覆盖范围的情况下向消费者进行大幅再分配。]

04. Efficient Allocation of Indivisible Goods in Pseudomarkets with Constraints ( 约束下伪市场中不可分割商品的有效分配 )

作者：Faruk Gul 等

摘要：We provide conditions under which a market mechanism can be used to allocate indivisible goods efficiently. We consider an economy with no transfers and show the existence and efficiency of Walrasian equilibria in the corresponding pseudomarket with stochastic consumption. We demonstrate that constraints on minimum and maximum levels of individual consumption and aggregate constraints of the kind that are relevant in combinatorial allocation problems can be accommodated either by incorporating these constraints into individual preferences or by specifying a suitable production technology.[ 机器译文：我们提供了利用市场机制有效配置不可分割商品的条件。我们考虑一个没有转移支付的经济体，并展示了相应具有随机消费的伪市场中瓦尔拉斯均衡的存在性和效率。我们证明，对个人消费最小和最大水平的约束以及与组合分配问题相关的那种总约束可以通过将这些约束纳入个人偏好或通过指定合适的生产技术来适应。]

05. Inferring Trade-Offs in University Admissions: Evidence from Cambridge ( 大学录取中的权衡推断：来自剑桥的证据 )

作者：Debopam Bhattacharya 等

摘要：How do elite universities balance diversity and academics during admissions? We develop a theory-based empirical framework to identify and quantify this potential trade-off, using postentry outcomes. We apply this to matched admission and exam-performance data from Cambridge. Comparing first- versus second-round admits from different demographic groups yields bounds on the trade-off magnitude, which (a) hold irrespective of whether we observe all applicant characteristics and (b) require no information on rejected applicants. We find robust evidence of trade-off between gender balance and future performance in math-intensive subjects but not for state/private school students or for gender in competitive nonmathematical disciplines.[ 机器译文：精英大学在招生过程中如何平衡多样性和学术性？我们开发了一个基于理论的经验框架，利用事后结果来识别和量化这种潜在的权衡。我们将其应用于剑桥匹配的录取和考试成绩数据。比较来自不同人口群体的第一轮与第二轮录取会产生权衡幅度的界限，（a）无论我们是否观察到所有申请人特征，该界限都成立;（b）不需要有关被拒绝申请人的信息。我们发现了强有力的证据表明，数学密集型科目中的性别平衡和未来表现之间存在权衡，但公立/私立学校学生或竞争性非数学学科中的性别却没有。]

06. Cadasters and Economic Growth: A Long-Run Cross-Country Panel ( 地籍与经济增长：一个长期的跨国小组 )

作者：Michelle D’Arcy 等

摘要：Cadasters are public records of land ownership that facilitate clear assignment of property rights and land demarcation, thereby reducing transaction costs for economic agents and strengthening the state’s capacity to tax. Macro-level research on the evolution of formal land registration has largely been lacking. Using a novel dataset on the emergence and development of state-administered cadasters in 159 countries over the past millennium, we analyze empirically the association between the development of cadastral institutions and long-run economic growth. Our findings suggest a substantive positive effect of the introduction of cadasters on modern per capita income levels.[ 机器译文：土地所有权的公共记录，有助于明确产权分配和土地划分，从而降低经济主体的交易成本并加强国家的征税能力。对正式土地登记演变的宏观层面研究基本上缺乏。我们使用一个关于过去一千年159个国家国家管理的土地管理机构出现和发展的新颖数据集，实证分析了土地管理机构的发展与长期经济增长之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，引入土地对现代人均收入水平产生了实质性的积极影响。]

07. Regulation of Organ Transplantation and Procurement: A Market-Design Lab Experiment ( 器官移植与采购监管：市场设计实验室实验 )

作者：Alex Chan 等

摘要：We conduct a lab experiment that shows that current rules regulating transplant centers (TCs) and organ-procurement organizations (OPOs) create perverse incentives that inefficiently reduce both organ recovery and beneficial transplantations. We model the decision environment with a two-player multiround game between an OPO and a TC. In the condition that simulates current rules, OPOs recover only the highest-quality kidneys and forgo valuable recovery opportunities, and TCs decline some beneficial transplants. Alternative regulations that reward TCs and OPOs together for health outcomes in their entire patient pool lead to behaviors that increase organ recovery and appropriate transplants.[ 机器译文：我们进行了一项实验室实验，表明当前规范移植中心（TC）和器官采购组织（OPO）的规则创造了反常的激励措施，无效地减少了器官恢复和有益移植。我们通过OPO和TC之间的两人多轮博弈来对决策环境进行建模。在模拟当前规则的情况下，OPO仅回收最高质量的肾脏并放弃宝贵的恢复机会，而TC则拒绝一些有益的移植。因整个患者群的健康结果共同奖励TC和OPO的替代法规会导致促进器官恢复和适当移植的行为。]

08. The Network Origins of Entry ( 入口的网络起源 )

作者：Arthur Campbell 等

摘要：We develop a model of market entry under social learning through word of mouth (WOM). The success of an entrant depends on consumer awareness generated via WOM, modeled as a percolation process on a random graph. The likelihood of an entrant gaining significant awareness depends on network structure, characterized by the first three factorial moments of the degree distribution. We identify three pricing equilibria: blockaded, deterred, and accommodated entry. The model demonstrates that increased network density can shift equilibria from blockaded to deterred and eventually to accommodated entry. Numerical simulations suggest that consumer surplus may be nonmonotonic with respect to network density. Additionally, if incumbents can charge personalized prices based on consumers' connectivity, they may optimally set lower prices for highly connected consumers.[ 机器译文：我们开发了口碑（WOM）社会学习下的市场进入模型。进入者的成功取决于通过WOM产生的消费者意识，该意识被建模为随机图上的渗透过程。参赛者获得显着意识的可能性取决于网络结构，其特征是学位分布的前三个因子矩。我们确定了三种定价均衡：封锁、阻止和适应进入。该模型表明，网络密度的增加可以将平衡从封锁转变为阻碍，并最终转变为适应进入。数值模拟表明，消费者剩余相对于网络密度可能是非单调的。此外，如果现有企业可以根据消费者的连接性收取个性化价格，那么他们可能会为高度连接的消费者设定更低的价格。]