前沿速递|NBER、IMF最新工作论文一览（No.2442）

       为更快更好地向广大学术爱好者及宏观金融领域研究者提供最新研究成果，“大金融思想”推出全新栏目——“NBER、IMF最新工作论文一览”，每周更新一期，汇集NBER、IMF最新发布的宏观金融领域论文，以飨读者。

本期论文搜索范围：2024.11.5-2024.11.11

  Authors 

Xuning Ding & Zhengyang Jiang

  Series   

【 Working Papers No. 33123】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w33123

  Issue Date  

November 2024

   Abstract   

Monetary and fiscal policies require coordination to achieve desired macroeconomic outcomes. The literature since Leeper (1991) has focused on two regimes: monetary dominance and fiscal dominance. In both cases, one policy is active while the other is passive and accommodates the former. We study this coordination problem in an international economy, and find a third regime—hegemon dominance. In this case, one country (the hegemon)'s monetary and fiscal authorities can pursue separate policy goals, while the other country's monetary and fiscal policies are both accommodative. For example, the hegemon can pursue a monetary policy unbacked by its fiscal policy. When this happens, the foreign monetary authority has to take the same stance as the hegemon, the foreign fiscal authority has to provide fiscal backing for the monetary stance undertaken by both countries, and the exchange rate adjusts to equilibrate the economy. Our result suggests that the U.S. fiscal policy's independence from its own monetary policy can be made possible by accommodative foreign policies, and that the Fed's effort to fight inflation can succeed despite the high level of public debt which would have required enormous fiscal backing in a closed economy.

货币和财政政策需要协调，以实现预期的宏观经济结果。Leeper（1991）以来的文献主要关注两种制度：货币主导和财政主导。在这两种情况下，一种政策是主动的，而另一种政策是被动的，并适应前者。我们在国际经济中研究这种协调问题，并发现了第三种制度——霸权统治。在这种情况下，一个国家（霸权国）的货币和财政当局可以追求各自的政策目标，而另一个国家的货币和财政政策都是宽松的。例如，霸权国家可以采取不以财政政策为后盾的货币政策。当这种情况发生时，外国货币当局必须采取与霸主相同的立场，外国财政当局必须为两国采取的货币立场提供财政支持，汇率调整以平衡经济。我们的研究结果表明，宽松的外交政策可以使美国的财政政策独立于其自身的货币政策，并且即便是在一个封闭的经济体中需要大量财政支持的高公共债务水平下，美联储对抗通货膨胀的努力也可以成功。

  Authors  

Matthew E. Kahn, Wen-Chi Liao & Siqi Zheng

  Series   

【 Working Papers No.33126】

  DOI  

   10.3386/w33126

  Issue Date  

November 2024

   Abstract   

The Trump Administration's tariffs created a wedge between mutually beneficial trades between China's producers and U.S. consumers. Moving production to nearby Vietnam allows firms to jump the tariff wall. Within Vietnam, cities closer to China with respect to distance and industrial mix grow faster and attract more FDI. They are increasingly consuming renewable power to fuel their local economy. We study the local air quality gains and the carbon dioxide emissions reductions associated with the growth in regional trade. China’s regional trade increases have important implications for the rise of the system of cities across Asia.

特朗普政府的关税在中国生产商和美国消费者之间的互利贸易之间制造了一个楔子。将生产转移到邻近的越南可以让企业避开关税壁垒。在越南，距离和产业结构更接近中国的城市增长更快，且能吸引更多的外国直接投资。他们越来越多地使用可再生能源来推动当地经济。我们研究了与区域贸易增长相关的当地空气质量收益和二氧化碳排放量减少。中国的区域贸易增长对亚洲城市体系的崛起产生了重要影响。

  Authors  

Andrew Greenland & John Lopresti

  Series   

【 Working Papers No.33127】

  DOI  

   10.3386/w33127

  Issue Date  

 November 2024

   Abstract   

Using a newly digitized database encompassing the universe of tariff lines across five US trade policy regimes between 1900 and 1940, we show that price dynamics combine with industry reliance on specific tariffs to generate large swings in average tariff levels. Intra-policy variation in tariffs is strongly predictive of import growth throughout our sample. Using linked Census data, we quantify the effects of imports on structural change in this era. We find that import growth decreases labor force participation and inhibits the transition into the expanding manufacturing and service sectors, especially among the young.

利用一个包含1900年至1940年间美国五种贸易政策制度关税细目的新数字化数据库，我们发现价格动态与行业对特定关税的依赖相结合，导致了平均关税水平的大幅波动。在我们的样本中，关税的政策内变化对进口增长具有很强的预测作用。使用相关的人口普查数据，我们量化了这个时代进口对结构变化的影响。我们发现，进口增长降低了劳动力参与率，并抑制了向不断扩大的制造业和服务业的过渡，这种影响尤其是在年轻人中更加突出。

  Authors  

Jongrim Ha, Dohan Kim, M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad

  Series  

【 Working Papers No.33133】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w33133

  Issue Date  

 November 2024

   Abstract   

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the currency (the FX puzzle). We show that incorporating forward-looking expectations into standard open economy structural VAR models resolves these puzzles. Specifically, we augment the models with novel survey-based measures of expectations based on consumer, business, and professional forecasts. We find that the rise in prices following monetary tightening is related to currency depreciation, so eliminating the FX puzzle helps solve the price puzzle.

新兴市场经济体货币政策传导的传统实证模型得出了令人困惑的结果：货币紧缩往往导致价格上涨（价格之谜）和货币贬值（外汇之谜）。我们表明，将前瞻性预期纳入标准开放经济结构VAR模型能够解决这些难题。具体地说，我们用基于消费者、企业和专业预测的基于调查的期望度量来增强模型。我们发现货币紧缩后的物价上涨与货币贬值有关，因此消除外汇之谜有助于解决价格之谜。

  Authors  

Telma Yamou, Alun H. Thomas, Kaihao Cai

  Series  

【Working Paper No.2024/234】

  Issue Date  

November 8, 2024

   Abstract   

This paper examines the relationship between citizens’ perceptions of tax authorities and the governments’ efficiency in collecting VAT and CIT revenues in Africa. Drawing on data from 32 countries over 2014-2019, we find a negative and significant association between negative perceptions of trust in authorities (the tax department) from the Afrobarometer survey and tax efficiency for these revenue categories. A 1 percent increase in the share of citizens’ perception of little or no trust in the tax department leads to a 0.22 percent decrease in VAT tax efficiency, controlling for macroeconomic indicators. The magnitude of the effect is significantly greater in fragile compared to non-fragile states. For corporate income tax productivity focusing on tax payments of corporates we find a significant effect only in fragile states. Perceptions about corruption in tax authorities have a similar effect on VAT and CIT tax efficiency since perceptions about trust and corruption capture the tendency to misappropriate revenues but we are unable to distinguish the two effects except for fragile states. Our findings suggest that in the face of fragility, policies aimed at improving fiscal capacity should place a high importance on ensuring that citizens believe resources will be used properly, an aspect of tax policy not typically prioritized.

本文考察了非洲公民对税务机关的看法与政府征收增值税和增值税收入效率之间的关系。根据2014-2019年来自32个国家的数据，我们发现非洲晴雨表调查中对当局（税务部门）信任的负面看法与这些收入类别的税收效率之间存在显著的负相关关系。在控制宏观经济指标的情况下，公民对税务部门缺乏信任或不信任的比例每增加1%，就会导致增值税税收效率下降0.22%。与非脆弱状态相比，脆弱状态的影响程度明显更大。对于关注企业纳税的企业所得税生产率，我们发现只有在脆弱国家才有显著影响。税务机关对腐败的看法对增值税和增值税的税收效率也有类似的影响，因为对信任和腐败的看法捕捉到了挪用收入的倾向，但我们无法区分这两种影响，除了脆弱国家。我们的研究结果表明，面对脆弱性，旨在提高财政能力的政策应高度重视确保公民相信资源将得到合理利用，这是税收政策通常不优先考虑的方面。

  Authors  

Samuel Mann, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

  Series  

【Working Paper No.2024/233】

  Issue Date  

November 8, 2024

   Abstract   

In early 2021, as monetary policy tightening reversed a multi-year trend of Metical depreciation, the exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar de facto stabilized. This report discusses elements of the market structure and other drivers of Metical stability since mid-2021. The particularities of Mozambique, a small open economy with an export sector that has a strong foreign currency cost structure, provide important insights into that discussion, as does the structure and development of the Foreign Exchange (FX) market.

2021年初，随着货币政策收紧扭转了梅蒂卡尔多年贬值的趋势，梅蒂卡尔兑美元汇率事实上企稳。本报告讨论了自2021年中期以来市场结构的要素和梅蒂卡尔稳定性的其他驱动因素。莫桑比克是一个小型开放经济体，其出口部门具有强大的外汇成本结构，其特点为这一讨论提供了重要的见解，外汇市场的结构和发展也是如此。

  Authors  

Khaled Eltokhy, Nicoletta Feruglio, Kezhou Miao, Arturo Navarro, Eivind Tandberg

  Series  

【Working Paper No.2024/232】

  Issue Date  

November 1, 2024

   Abstract   

This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to identify bottlenecks to effective public investment management in LIDCs. The paper describes the current state of affairs regarding public investment and public investment management in LIDCs, drawing on the results of IMF Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs). PCA is used to analyze which public investment institutions are likely to be most important for investment efficiency estimates across the countries covered by PIMAs so far. Drawing on alternative input data, we identify five PIMA institutions that are systematically highly correlated to estimates of public investment efficiency in LIDCs and are likely to be high priorities in many PIM reform processes: Project management, Project appraisal, Procurement, Availability of funding, and Project selection. This does not mean that these five are the only important institutions – this will depend on country circumstances. The practical steps to strengthen PIM in LIDCs are elaborated in a separate How-to-Note.

本文利用主成分分析（PCA）来识别制约低发展中国家有效公共投资管理的瓶颈。本文根据国际货币基金组织公共投资管理评估（PIMAs）的结果，描述了最不发达国家公共投资和公共投资管理的现状。PCA用于分析哪些公共投资机构可能对PIMAs迄今所涵盖的国家的投资效率估计最为重要。根据其他输入数据，我们确定了五个与低收入发展中国家公共投资效率估计系统高度相关的PIMA机构，并且可能在许多PIM改革过程中成为高度优先事项：项目管理、项目评估、采购、资金可用性和项目选择。这并不意味着这五个机构是唯一重要的机构——这将取决于各国的情况。在单独的注意事项中详细阐述了在低收入国家加强PIM的实际步骤。