前沿速递|NBER、IMF最新工作论文一览（No.2441）

       为更快更好地向广大学术爱好者及宏观金融领域研究者提供最新研究成果，“大金融思想”推出全新栏目——“NBER、IMF最新工作论文一览”，每周更新一期，汇集NBER、IMF最新发布的宏观金融领域论文，以飨读者。

本期论文搜索范围：2024.10.29-2024.11.04

  Authors 

Xavier Gabaix & Thomas Graeber

  Series   

【 Working Papers No. 33109】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w33109

  Issue Date  

November 2024

   Abstract   

We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task's complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity emerges as the inverse of the total factor productivity of thinking about a task. It increases in the number of importance-weighted components and decreases in the degree to which the effect of one or few components on the optimal action dominates. Higher complexity generates larger decision errors and behavioral attenuation to variation in problem parameters. The model applies both to continuous and discrete choice. We develop a theory-guided experimental methodology for measuring subjective perceptions of complexity that is simple and portable. A series of experiments test and confirm the central predictions of our model for perceptions of complexity, behavioral attenuation, and decision errors. We provide a template for applying the framework to core economic decision domains, and then develop several applications including the complexity of static consumption choice with one or several interacting goods, consumption over time, the tax system, forecasting, and discrete choice between goods.

我们提出了一个经济决策复杂性的理论。利用生产功能的宏观经济框架，我们将思维概念化为认知经济，其中任务的复杂性取决于其认知操作的组成。复杂性作为思考任务的全要素生产率的反义词出现。它增加了重要性加权分量的数量，并减少了一个或几个分量对最优行为的影响的主导程度。复杂性越高，决策误差越大，问题参数变化对行为的影响也越大。该模型适用于连续选择和离散选择。我们开发了一种理论指导的实验方法，用于测量简单且可移植的主观复杂性感知。一系列实验测试并证实了我们的模型对复杂性、行为衰减和决策错误的感知的中心预测。我们提供了一个将框架应用于核心经济决策领域的模板，然后开发了几个应用程序，包括一个或几个相互作用的商品的静态消费选择的复杂性（随着时间的推移的消费，税收制度，预测，以及商品之间的离散选择）。

  Authors  

Yong Suk Lee, Toshiaki Iizuka & Karen Eggleston

  Series   

【 Working Papers No.33116】

  DOI  

   10.3386/w33116

  Issue Date  

November 2024

   Abstract   

How do employment, tasks, and productivity change with robot adoption? Unlike manufacturing, little is known about these issues in the service sector, where robot adoption is expanding. As a first step towards filling this gap, we study Japanese nursing homes using original facility-level panel data that includes the different robots used and the tasks performed. We find that robot adoption is accompanied by an increase in employment and retention and the relationship is strongest for non-regular care workers and monitoring robots. The share of specific tasks performed by robots increases with the adoption of the respective type of robot, leading to reallocation of care worker effort to “human touch” tasks that support quality care. Robots are associated with improved quality (reduction in restraint use and pressure ulcers) and productivity.随着机器人的采用，就业、任务和生产力会发生怎样的变化？与制造业不同，在机器人应用不断扩大的服务业，人们对这些问题知之甚少。作为填补这一空白的第一步，我们使用原始设施级别的面板数据研究了日本养老院，其中包括使用的不同机器人和执行的任务。我们发现，机器人的采用伴随着就业和滞留的增加，这种关系对于非正规护理人员和监控机器人来说是最强的。机器人执行的特定任务的份额随着各自类型机器人的采用而增加，导致护理人员的工作重新分配到支持高质量护理的“人性化”任务上。机器人与提高质量和生产力有关。

  Authors  

George A. Alessandria, Yan Bai & Soo Kyung Woo

  Series   

【 Working Papers No.33101】

  DOI  

   10.3386/w33101

  Issue Date  

November 2024

   Abstract   

We study the reasons for the large, coincident increases in unbalanced international trade and overall trade from 1970 to 2019. We show that these two salient features—a rise in net and gross international trade—are largely a consequence of a reduction in intratemporal trade barriers rather than a substantial reduction in the frictions on intertemporal trade or greater asymmetries in business cycles. Beyond explaining changes in the distribution of gross and net trade, the decline in intratemporal trade frictions is consistent with a fall in the dispersion across countries in other key macro time series, including the real exchange rate, terms of trade, export-import ratio, relative spending, and relative GDP.

我们研究了1970年至2019年不平衡国际贸易和总体贸易同步大幅增长的原因。我们的研究表明，这两个显著特征——国际贸易净额和贸易总额的增长——在很大程度上是跨期贸易壁垒减少的结果，而不是跨期贸易摩擦大幅减少或商业周期不对称加剧的结果。除了解释总贸易和净贸易分布的变化之外，跨境贸易摩擦的下降与其他关键宏观时间序列（包括实际汇率、贸易条件、进出口比、相对支出和相对GDP）中各国间差异的下降是一致的。

  Authors  

Nicholas Bloom, Kyle Handley, André Kurmann & Philip A. Luck

  Series  

【 Working Papers No.33098】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w33098

  Issue Date  

 November 2024

   Abstract   

Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.

我们利用美国人口普查局（U.S. Census Bureau）的机密行政数据，重新审视了中国进口渗透率的上升如何重塑了美国当地的劳动力市场。受中国冲击影响更大的当地劳动力市场经历了更大规模的从制造业到服务业的再分配。这种再分配大多发生在那些同时收缩制造业业务、同时扩大服务业就业的公司内部。值得注意的是，约40%的制造业工作岗位流失效应是由于企业继续将其主要活动从制造业转向与贸易相关的服务，如研究、管理和批发。中国进口渗透的影响因当地劳动力市场的特点而异。在人力资本高的地区，包括西海岸和大城市的大部分地区，工作岗位从制造业重新分配到服务业的情况非常明显。在低人力资本和高初始制造业份额的地区，包括中西部和南部的大部分地区，我们发现工作再分配有限。我们估计，这些地区对中国冲击的不同反应占1997-2007年就业增长差距的一半。

  Authors  

  Series  

【 Working Papers No.33114】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w33114

  Issue Date  

 November 2024

   Abstract   

How does economic modernization affect group identity? Modernization theory emphasizes how labor migration led to the adoption of common identities. Yet economic development may reduce incentives to emigrate, preserving local cultures. We study England and Wales during the Second Industrial Revolution, a period characterized by the development of new industries and declines in transportation and communication costs. Using microdata on individuals’ names and migration decisions, we quantify identity change and its variation across space. We develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model in which migration and cultural identities are inter-dependent. Different components of economic modernization had different effects on identity change. Falling migration costs homogenized peripheral regions. In contrast, industrial development led to heterogeneity, increasing the overall prevalence of the culture of London, while also creating local identity holdouts by reducing out-migration from industrializing peripheries. Modernization promotes both national identities and persistent local identities in peripheral regions that industrialize.

经济现代化如何影响群体认同？现代化理论强调劳动力迁移如何导致共同身份的采用。然而，经济发展可能会减少移民的动机，从而保护当地文化。我们研究了第二次工业革命时期的英格兰和威尔士，这一时期的特点是新工业的发展和运输和通信成本的下降。利用个人姓名和迁移决策的微数据，我们量化了身份变化及其在空间上的变化。我们开发并估计了一个定量的空间模型，其中移民和文化身份是相互依赖的。经济现代化的不同组成部分对身份变迁的影响不同。移民成本的下降使周边地区同质化。相比之下，工业发展导致了异质性，增加了伦敦文化的总体流行度，同时也通过减少工业化边缘地区的外迁而创造了地方身份的顽固分子。现代化促进了工业化外围地区的民族认同和持久的地方认同。

  Authors  

Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Achim Hagen, Franziska Holz

  Series  

【Working Paper No.2024/230】

  Issue Date  

November 1, 2024

   Abstract   

We study the impact of fossil fuel subsidy removal on presidential popularity using difference-in-difference approaches and a stylized theoretical model. Analyzing macro level data for two subsidy removal events in Mexico and Bolivia in the early 2010s, we find evidence of a negative impact on presidential approval. Our theoretical probabilistic voting model predicts that the decline in popularity is driven by high income groups if subsidies are regressive, and that lack of trust in the government lowers popularity of the removal in all income groups. We confirm these predictions using micro level data for the Mexican subsidy removal event.

我们研究化石燃料补贴取消对总统支持率的影响.使用DID方法和程式化的理论模型。通过分析2010年代初墨西哥和玻利维亚两起补贴取消事件的宏观数据，我们发现了补贴取消对总统支持率产生负面影响的证据。我们的理论概率投票模型预测，如果补贴是递减的，那么受欢迎程度的下降是由高收入群体驱动的，而对政府缺乏信任降低了所有收入群体对取消补贴的欢迎程度。我们使用墨西哥补贴取消事件的微观数据来证实这些预测。

  Authors  

Patrick A. Imam, Jonathan R. W. Temple

  Series  

【Working Paper No.2024/229】

  Issue Date  

November 1, 2024

   Abstract   

Previous research suggests that economy-wide poverty traps are rarely observed in the data. In this paper, we explore a related hypothesis: low-income countries rarely improve their position relative to the US. Using finite state Markov chains, we show that upwards mobility is indeed limited. Since capital-output ratios are similar across countries, and human capital is also converging, the persistence of low relative income seems to originate in the persistence of low relative TFP. We study the dynamics of relative TFP and how they interact with absolute levels of human capital, casting new light on the future of convergence.

先前的研究表明，在数据中很少观察到经济范围内的贫困陷阱。在本文中，我们探讨了一个相关的假设：低收入国家相对于美国的地位很少得到改善。利用有限状态马尔可夫链，我们证明了向上迁移确实是有限的。由于各国的资本产出比率相似，人力资本也在趋同，低相对收入的持续存在似乎源于低相对TFP的持续存在。我们研究了相对全要素生产率的动态，以及它们如何与人力资本的绝对水平相互作用，从而为趋同的未来提供了新的视角。

（选文、整理：强皓凡）