前沿速递|NBER、IMF最新工作论文一览（No.2439）

为更快更好地向广大学术爱好者及宏观金融领域研究者提供最新研究成果，“大金融思想”推出全新栏目——“NBER、IMF最新工作论文一览”，每周更新一期，汇集NBER、IMF最新发布的宏观金融领域论文，以飨读者。

本期论文搜索范围：2024.10.15-2024.10.21

  Authors  

Robert J. Gordon

  Series   

【 Working Papers No.33068】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w33068

  Issue Date  

October 2024

   Abstract   

This paper studies the effect of economic indicators on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Presidential approval ratings, and Presidential election outcomes since 1956. How closely do the indicators predict sentiment, how well does sentiment predict approval, and what role does approval have in explaining election outcomes measured by electoral votes? How much of the variance of approval ratings depends on non-economic factors like the “honeymoon effect”? Is there a role for economic indicators in explaining election outcomes once the contribution of approval ratings is taken into account? Regression equations provide answers to these questions and allow new interpretations of political history. Equation residuals and the contributions of specific variables are graphically displayed, providing insights into time intervals when sentiment was above or below the prediction of economic indicators, when approval differed from its usual relation with sentiment and the indicators, and when and why the electoral vote totals in each election since 1956 exceeded or fell short of the predictions of the econometric equations.

本文研究了自 1956 年以来经济指标对密歇根消费者情绪指数、总统支持率和总统选举结果的影响。这些指标对情绪的预测有多密切，情绪对支持率的预测有多好，以及支持率在解释以选举人票衡量的选举结果方面有什么作用？支持率的差异在多大程度上取决于 “蜜月效应”等非经济因素？一旦考虑到支持率的作用，经济指标在解释选举结果方面是否发挥作用？回归方程为这些问题提供了答案，并能对政治历史做出新的解释。方程残差和特定变量的贡献以图表的形式显示出来，让人们深入了解情绪高于或低于经济指标预测值的时间段，支持率与情绪和指标的通常关系不同的时间段，以及自 1956 年以来每次选举的选举票总数超过或低于计量经济学方程预测值的时间和原因。

  Authors  

Charles Hodgson

  Series  

【 Working Papers No. 33067】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w 33067

  Issue Date  

October 2024

   Abstract   

The arrival of creative machines—software capable of producing human-like creative content—has triggered a series of legal challenges about intellectual property. The outcome of these legal challenges will shape the future of the creative industry in ways that could enhance or jeopardize welfare. Policymakers are already tasked with creating regulations for a post-generative AI creative industry. Economics may offer valuable insights, and this paper is our attempt to contribute to the discussion. We identify the main economic issues and propose a framework and some tools for thinking about them.

如果竞争对手可以搭乘创新的顺风车，企业间的信息溢出效应就会降低研发动力。然而，强大的产权可能会阻碍累积研究，导致低效重复。这些影响在自然资源勘探中尤为重要，因为勘探发现在空间上是相关的。利用英国近海石油勘探数据，我估算了一个动态模型，该模型捕捉了现在钻探与等待向竞争对手学习之间的权衡。消除搭便车的诱因会使行业盈余增加 52%，而完美的信息流则会使盈余增加 24%。反事实政策模拟突出了产权设计中的权衡：对勘探井数据的较强产权会提高勘探率，而较弱的产权会提高学习效率和速度，但会降低勘探率。对每家公司的钻井许可证进行空间分组，既能减少搭便车的动机，又能提高学习速度。

  Authors  

Kevin S. Milligan

  Series  

【 Working Papers No. 33066】

  DOI  

  10.3386/w 33066

  Issue Date  

October 2024

   Abstract   

I develop and implement a methodology for cohort life expectancy using a panel of administrative tax data on a large sample born between 1930 and 1964. Over these 35 years, cohort life expectancy after age 54 grew by 5 years for women and 7 years for men. The income-longevity gradient for the top vs. bottom five percent of incomes is 9 years of post-54 life for men and 7 years for women. The life expectancy improvements arise across the income distribution in Canada, unlike the United States. Large differences across neighbourhoods emerge which cannot be explained by income differences alone.

我利用 1930 年至 1964 年间出生的大量样本的税收管理数据面板，开发并实施了一种队列预期寿命方法。在这 35 年中，女性 54 岁以后的组群预期寿命增长了 5 岁，男性增长了 7 岁。在收入最高与收入最低的 5%人群中，男性 54 岁后的寿命梯度为 9 年，女性为 7 年。与美国不同的是，加拿大的预期寿命提高体现在整个收入分配中。不同社区之间出现的巨大差异无法仅用收入差异来解释。

  Authors  

Silvia Albrizio,Hippolyte W. Balima,Bertrand Gruss,Eric Huang,Colombe Ladreit

  Series  

【Working Paper No. 2024/216】

  Publication Date  

October 16, 2024

   Abstract  

This paper investigates public attitudes toward product market regulation (PMR) reforms aimed at fostering private participation and competition in two network sectors—electricity and telecommunications. Despite the benefits of such reforms, including enhanced productivity and lower prices, they often face significant public resistance. We conduct large-scale surveys of 6,300 individuals in three emerging market and developing economies (Mexico, Morocco, and South Africa) to analyze the role of socioeconomic characteristics, beliefs, and perceptions in shaping support for PMR reforms. Our findings reveal that individual beliefs and perceptions, particularly those related to how policies work and market economy views, are major predictors of reform support. Randomized information treatments show that raising awareness about the costs of the status quo and the benefits of PMR reforms significantly increases public support. Among initially skeptical individuals, societal concerns play a larger role in respondents’ reasons for nonsupport, consistent with models of social preferences. However, offering tailored complementary and compensatory measures can further enhance support among those skeptical individuals.

本文调查了公众对产品市场监管（PMR）改革的态度，这些改革旨在促进两个网络部门--电力和电信--的私人参与和竞争。尽管此类改革具有提高生产率和降低价格等益处，但往往面临公众的强烈抵制。我们在三个新兴市场和发展中经济体（墨西哥、摩洛哥和南非）对 6,300 名个人进行了大规模调查，以分析社会经济特征、信念和观念在形成对 PMR 改革的支持方面所起的作用。我们的研究结果表明，个人信念和观念，尤其是与政策如何发挥作用和市场经济观点相关的信念和观念，是预测改革支持度的主要因素。随机信息处理表明，提高人们对现状的成本和PMR改革的益处的认识，会大大提高公众的支持率。在最初持怀疑态度的人中，社会问题在受访者不支持的原因中起着更大的作用，这与社会偏好模型是一致的。然而，提供量身定制的补充和补偿措施可以进一步提高这些持怀疑态度的人的支持率。

  Authors  

Silvia Albrizio,Hippolyte W. Balima,Bertrand Gruss,Eric Huang,Colombe Ladreit

  Series  

【Working Paper No. 2024/217】

  Publication Date  

October 16, 2024

   Abstract   

This paper investigates public perceptions and support for policies aimed at integrating immigrant workers into domestic labor markets. Through large-scale surveys involving 6,300 respondents from Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom, we provide new insights into attitudes toward migrant integration policies and the impact of different information provisions on belief updating. We identify three key factors that shape policy support: pre-existing stereotypes about immigrants, awareness of labor market integration policies for migrants, and, most critically, the perceived economic and social impact of these policies. Our findings reveal that providing information about the economic effects of integrating immigrants in the labor market significantly alters perceptions and increases support for these policies. Notably, explanations of the economic mechanisms underlying these policies are more effective than simply presenting policy effects or real-life stories of integration challenges. The survey also identifies the primary barriers to policy support, with fairness considerations toward unemployed native workers emerging as the top concern. It reveals that addressing individuals’ specific concerns through tailored mitigation measures can enhance support for policies aimed at better integration migrants. Nevertheless, a significant challenge remains in overcoming mistrust in the government’s commitment and ability to effectively implement these policies and accompanying measures.

本文研究了公众对旨在将移民工人融入国内劳动力市场的政策的看法和支持。通过对加拿大、意大利和英国的 6300 名受访者进行大规模调查，我们对移民融入政策的态度以及不同信息规定对信念更新的影响有了新的认识。我们发现了影响政策支持的三个关键因素：先前存在的对移民的成见、对移民劳动力市场一体化政策的认识，以及最关键的，这些政策对经济和社会的影响。我们的研究结果表明，提供有关移民融入劳动力市场的经济影响的信息会大大改变人们对这些政策的看法，并增加对这些政策的支持。值得注意的是，解释这些政策背后的经济机制比简单介绍政策效果或融合挑战的真实故事更有效。调查还确定了政策支持的主要障碍，其中对失业本地工人的公平考虑成为首要关注点。调查显示，通过有针对性的缓解措施来解决个人的具体顾虑，可以增强对旨在更好地实现移民融入的政策的支持。然而，在克服对政府有效实施这些政策和配套措施的承诺和能力的不信任方面，仍然存在重大挑战。

  Authors  

PhilippeWingender,JiaxiongYao,RobertZymek,Benjamin Carton,Diego A. Cerdeiro,Anke Weber

  Series  

【Working Paper No. 2024/218】

  Publication Date  

October 11, 2024

   Abstract   

European countries have set ambitious goals to reduce their carbon emissions. These goals include a transition to electric vehicles (EVs)—a sector that China increasingly dominates globally—which could reduce the demand for Europe’s large and interconnected auto sector. This paper aims to size up the tradeoffs between Europe’s shift towards EVs and key macroeconomic outcomes, and analyze which policies may sharpen or ease them. Using state-of-the-art macroeconomic and trade models we analyze a scenario in which the share of Chinese cars in EU purchases rises by 15 percent over 5 years as a result of both a positive productivity shock for car production in China and a demand shock that shifts consumer preferences towards Chinese cars (given China’s dominance in the EV sector). We find that for the EU as a whole, the GDP cost of this shift is small in the short term, in the range of 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP, and close to zero over the long term. Adverse short-run effects are more significant for smaller economies heavily reliant on the car sector, mainly in Central Europe. Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs, would raise the GDP cost of the EV transition. A further increase in Chinese FDI inflows that results in a significant share of Chinese EVs being produced in Central European economies, on the other hand, would offset losses in these economies by supporting their shift from supplying the internal combustion engine (ICE) production chain to that of EVs.欧洲国家制定了雄心勃勃的碳减排目标。这些目标包括向电动汽车（EV）转型--中国在这一领域日益占据全球主导地位--这可能会减少对欧洲庞大且相互关联的汽车行业的需求。本文旨在衡量欧洲向电动汽车转型与主要宏观经济结果之间的权衡，并分析哪些政策可能会加剧或缓解这种权衡。通过使用最先进的宏观经济和贸易模型，我们分析了这样一种情景：由于中国汽车生产的正向生产力冲击和消费者偏好转向中国汽车的需求冲击（考虑到中国在电动汽车领域的主导地位），中国汽车在欧盟购买中的份额在 5 年内上升了 15%。我们发现，就欧盟整体而言，这种转变的 GDP 成本在短期内很小，占 GDP 的 0.2%-0.3%，长期来看则接近于零。对于严重依赖汽车行业的较小经济体（主要是中欧国家）而言，短期不利影响更为显著。保护主义政策，如对中国电动汽车征收关税，将提高电动汽车转型的国内生产总值成本。另一方面，如果中国的外国直接投资流入进一步增加，导致中国电动汽车在中欧经济体中的生产比例大幅提高，将支持这些经济体从供应内燃机（ICE）生产链转向电动汽车生产链，从而抵消这些经济体的损失。

（选文、整理：武彦青）