导读
自1833年以来，美国总统选举年与股市调整之间有着密切联系，总统选举年通常是股市表现的亮点。统计数据显示，标普500指数在总统选举年的平均涨幅为10.03%，而选举后的第一和第二年平均涨幅分别为6.15%和6.94%。然而，这一趋势也有例外，如2008年的金融危机使得标普500指数暴跌近37%。尽管如此，总统选举年的“获胜率”（正回报率）仍高达76.6%。
历史经验显示，市场在选举前后波动较大。自罗斯福总统1944年连任以来，仅有2000年（互联网泡沫破裂）和2008年（金融危机）两个总统选举年出现股市下跌。然而，2024年的市场表现是否符合这一趋势，还需取决于经济基本面和政策变化。尽管选举年通常表现强劲，短期波动仍然存在：市场倾向于9月和10月进行调整，而在11月，即总统选举月，整体趋势向好。
短期内，选举带来的政策变化影响有限，市场更青睐稳定性。尽管政策的长期影响不可忽视，但短期内对市场的作用较小。对于市场而言，最大的不确定性来源于政策变化可能导致的税收增加、贸易限制或支出削减，这些因素可能对金融市场短期不利。两党政策大多偏向增加债务以满足选民需求，而华尔街更倾向于“政治僵局”带来的稳定。数据显示，国会分裂，即国会两院由不同的政党分别控制的情况下，市场表现更佳，标普500的平均涨幅达到17.2%。
文章预测，2024至2025年股票市场表现依赖于多重因素的良性发展。要使市场在2025年前表现良好，需要避免经济衰退、维持消费支出增加、改善企业盈利能力以及保持投资者乐观情绪等多个因素协同发展。然而，这些条件的实现依赖于经济发展稳定、财政政策和货币政策支持以及企业积极配合，而每个条件本身都存在风险。
基于上述原因，面对选举年的市场波动，投资者需要通过风险管理来保护资本。减少高风险资产的配置，优化投资组合并增加对冲手段是有效的策略。此外，在市场趋势明朗后，重新调整策略抓住机遇将有助于实现长期收益目标。
总体而言，总统选举年通常表现积极，但伴随着短期波动性。投资者通过制定合理的风险管理计划，可以在市场调整中保护资本，并在不确定性中找到机会。
英文原文（节选）：
Published on ZeroHedge
Lance Roberts
Chief Investment Strategist, RIA Advisors
08 March 2024
While you may feel strongly about one party or the other regarding politics, it doesn’t matter much regarding your money.
This is particularly true today. As we approach November, for the third election in a row, voters will cast ballots for the candidate they dislike less, rather than the one whose policies they support. More importantly, most voters are heading to the polls influenced by large amounts of misinformation, often propagated by social media commentators pushing political agendas.
Notably, the market already understands that with political parties more deeply dividedthan ever before, the likelihood of significant policies being passed is slim. (The latest data from a 2019 report, referencing 2017, shows that the gap has grown significantly. Social media continues to amplify this divide.)
The one thing markets do seem to prefer is “political gridlock”:
“A split Congress historically has been better for stocks, which tend to like that one party doesn’t have too much sway. Stocks gained close to 30% in 1985, 2013, and 2019, all under a split Congress, according to LPL Financial. The average S&P 500 gain with a divided Congress was 17.2%, while GDP growth averaged 2.8%.” – USA Today
What we can derive from the data is the odds suggest the market will end this year on a positive note. However, such says little about next year. If you go back to our data table above, the 1st year of a new Presidential cycle is roughly a 50/50 outcome. It is also the lowest average return year, going back to 1833.
Furthermore, from the election to 2025, outcomes have been overly dependent on many things continuing to go “right.”
1.Avoidance of a “double-dip” recession. (Without more Fiscal stimulus, this is a plausible risk.)
2.The Fed drastically expands monetary policy. (Such won’t come without a recession.)
3.The consumer will need to expand their current debt-driven consumption. (This is a risk without more fiscal stimulus or sustainable economic growth.)
4.There is a marked improvement in both corporate earnings and profitability. (This will likely be the case as mass layoffs benefit bottom-line profitability. However, top-line sales remain at risk due to items #1 and #3.)
5.Multiple expansions continue. (The problem is that a lack of earnings growth in the bottom 490 stocks eventually disappoints.)
These risks are all undoubtedly possible.
However, when combined with the longest-running bull market in history, high valuations, and excessive speculation, the risks of something going wrong have risen.
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来源
作者信息：
Lance Roberts (RIA Advisors 首席投资策略师，Real Investment Report 主编)
来源：
ZeroHedge
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