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“ OpenAI CEO Sam Altman今日凌晨在自己的博客上发文《The Intelligence Age》。文末附赠网友梗图。”
🔗 原文链接：https://ia.samaltman.com September 23, 2024
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@ Henrikbirkeland from x.com
In the next couple of decades, we will be able to do things that would have seemed like magic to our grandparents. 在未来的几十年里，我们将能够做一些在我们祖父母眼中近乎魔法的事情。
This phenomenon is not new, but it will be newly accelerated. People have become dramatically more capable over time; we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed to be impossible. 这种现象虽然不新，但会迎来新的加速。随着时间的推移，人类的能力显著增强；我们现在已经能够完成一些我们前辈认为不可能的事情。
We are more capable not because of genetic change, but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and more capable than any one of us; in an important sense, society itself is a form of advanced intelligence. Our grandparents – and the generations that came before them – built and achieved great things. They contributed to the scaffolding of human progress that we all benefit from. AI will give people tools to solve hard problems and help us add new struts to that scaffolding that we couldn’t have figured out on our own. The story of progress will continue, and our children will be able to do things we can’t. 我们的能力提升并非由于基因变化，而是因为我们受益于社会基础设施远比任何个人都聪明和有能力；在某种重要意义上，社会本身就是一种高级智能。我们的祖父母——以及之前的几代人——创造并实现了伟大的成就。他们为人类进步的体系做出了贡献，而我们都从中受益。AI 将为人类提供解决难题的工具，并帮助我们为这个体系添加新的支撑结构，而这些是我们自己无法完成的。进步的故事将继续，我们的孩子们将能够做到我们无法做到的事情。
It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI; eventually we can each have a personal AI team, full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better healthcare, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more. 这一切不会一下子发生，但很快我们就能与 AI 合作，帮助我们完成远超我们单独能力的任务；最终，我们每个人都将拥有一支个人 AI 团队，团队中的虚拟专家涵盖各个领域，共同合作创造几乎我们能想象的任何事物。我们的孩子将拥有虚拟导师，能够以任何语言、在任何需要的节奏下，提供个性化的任何学科的教学。我们还可以设想更好的医疗保健、实现任何人所能想象的软件开发等类似的想法。
With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity to a degree that seems unimaginable today; in the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now. Prosperity alone doesn’t necessarily make people happy – there are plenty of miserable rich people – but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world. 拥有这些新能力，我们将迎来一个今天难以想象的共同繁荣；在未来，每个人的生活都可能比今天的任何人都要好。富足本身并不一定让人快乐——有很多富有却痛苦的人——但它确实会实质性地改善世界各地人们的生活。
Here is one narrow way to look at human history: after thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress, we have figured out how to melt sand, add some impurities, arrange it with astonishing precision at extraordinarily tiny scale into computer chips, run energy through it, and end up with systems capable of creating increasingly capable artificial intelligence. 从一个狭隘的角度来看人类历史：在数千年的科学发现和技术进步的积累之后，我们已经弄清楚如何熔化沙子、添加一些杂质、以惊人的精度在极其微小的尺度上排列成电脑芯片，运行电能，最终得到能够创建越来越强大人工智能的系统。This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there. 这可能会成为迄今为止整个历史中最为重要的事实。我们可能在几千天内（！）拥有超级智能；也许会花更长时间，但我确信我们会到达那一步。
How did we get to the doorstep of the next leap in prosperity? 我们如何迈入下一个繁荣的大门？
In three words: deep learning worked. 简而言之：深度学习有效。
In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it. 用 15 个词来说：深度学习有效，并且可以预见的是，随着规模的扩大，深度学习会变得更好，而且我们为其投入了越来越多的资源。
That’s really it; humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really, the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data). To a shocking degree of precision, the more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems. I find that no matter how much time I spend thinking about this, I can never really internalize how consequential it is. 确实如此；人类发现了一种真正可以学习任何数据分布的算法（或者更准确地说，生成任何数据分布背后的底层“规则”）。到令人震惊的精确程度，随着计算能力和数据的增加，它在帮助人们解决难题方面变得越来越出色。我发现无论我花多少时间思考这个问题，我始终无法真正领会它的重要性。
There are a lot of details we still have to figure out, but it’s a mistake to get distracted by any particular challenge. Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale, and that will lead to meaningful improvements to the lives of people around the world. 我们仍然有许多细节需要弄清楚，但过分纠结于任何特定挑战都是错误的。深度学习有效，我们将解决剩下的问题。我们可以对接下来会发生什么说很多事情，但主要的一点是，AI 将随着规模的扩大而变得更好，这将为世界各地的人们的生活带来实质性改善。
AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. At some point further down the road, AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems and make scientific progress across the board. AI 模型很快将作为自主的个人助手，代表我们执行特定任务，例如协调医疗护理。在未来的某个时刻，AI 系统将变得如此强大，以至于它们能够帮助我们开发更好的下一代系统，并推动科学全面进步。
Technology brought us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age and then to the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the Intelligence Age is paved with compute, energy, and human will. 技术带领我们从石器时代进入农业时代，再到工业时代。从现在开始，通往智能时代的道路由计算能力、能源和人类意志铺就。
If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people. 如果我们希望将 AI 普及到尽可能多的人手中，我们需要降低计算的成本并使其充足（这需要大量的能源和芯片）。如果我们不建设足够的基础设施，AI 将成为一种非常有限的资源，可能引发战争，并主要成为富人的工具。
We need to act wisely but with conviction. The dawn of the Intelligence Age is a momentous development with very complex and extremely high-stakes challenges. It will not be an entirely positive story, but the upside is so tremendous that we owe it to ourselves, and the future, to figure out how to navigate the risks in front of us. 我们需要明智但坚定地采取行动。智能时代的黎明是一个具有复杂性且影响极高的时刻。这不会是一个完全积极的故事，但其巨大的潜力让我们有责任为自己和未来找到应对风险的办法。
I believe the future is going to be so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now; a defining characteristic of the Intelligence Age will be massive prosperity. 我相信，未来将会如此光明，以至于没有人能够通过现在的文字去真正表达它；智能时代的一个定义性特征将是巨大的繁荣。
Although it will happen incrementally, astounding triumphs – fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics – will eventually become commonplace. With nearly-limitless intelligence and abundant energy – the ability to generate great ideas, and the ability to make them happen – we can do quite a lot. 尽管这一切将是渐进发生的，但令人惊叹的胜利——如解决气候问题、建立太空殖民地以及发现所有物理学奥秘——最终将变得司空见惯。凭借几乎无限的智能和充足的能源——生成伟大想法的能力以及让它们成真的能力——我们将能够做很多事情。
As we have seen with other technologies, there will also be downsides, and we need to start working now to maximize AI’s benefits while minimizing its harms. As one example, we expect that this technology can cause a significant change in labor markets (good and bad) in the coming years, but most jobs will change more slowly than most people think, and I have no fear that we’ll run out of things to do (even if they don’t look like “real jobs” to us today). People have an innate desire to create and to be useful to each other, and AI will allow us to amplify our own abilities like never before. As a society, we will be back in an expanding world, and we can again focus on playing positive-sum games.正如我们在其他技术上看到的那样，这也会带来负面影响，因此我们现在就需要开始努力，最大化 AI 的好处，同时最小化其危害。例如，我们预计未来几年这项技术会对劳动力市场产生显著影响（有好有坏），但大多数工作会比人们想象的变化得更慢，而且我并不担心我们会没事可做（即便这些工作看起来不像我们今天所理解的“真正的工作”）。人们天生就有创造和为他人做贡献的欲望，AI 将使我们比以往任何时候都更能放大自己的能力。作为一个社会，我们将重新回到一个扩展的世界，并再次专注于正和博弈(创造共同的价值)。
Many of the jobs we do today would have looked like trifling wastes of time to people a few hundred years ago, but nobody is looking back at the past, wishing they were a lamplighter. If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable. And if we could fast-forward a hundred years from today, the prosperity all around us would feel just as unimaginable.今天我们所做的许多工作，在几百年前的人看来可能显得毫无意义，但没有人会希望回到过去，成为一名点灯人。如果一名点灯人看到今天的世界，他会觉得周围的繁荣是难以想象的。如果我们能够快进到一百年后，周围的繁荣也会让我们感到同样难以想象。
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OpenAI其他动作
此外，OpenAI 正在推出 OpenAI 学院，该学院将投资于利用人工智能帮助解决难题并促进社区经济增长的开发人员和组织。该学院将确保从低收入和中等收入国家开始，人工智能的变革潜力可以为世界各地的不同社区所利用并从中受益。
OpenAI学院项目将提供：
培训和技术指导：为开发者和以使命为导向的组织提供OpenAI专家的支持，以利用AI技术。
API额度：初步分发价值100万美元的API额度，以扩大对OpenAI模型的访问，使参与者能够构建和部署创新应用。
社区建设：培养全球开发者网络，以促进合作、知识共享和推动集体创新。
竞赛和孵化器：与慈善家合作，投资于解决社区一线挑战的组织。
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