原文信息：
Quantifying the economy-wide employment effects of coal-fired power plants: Two different cases China and the United States
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924019445
Highlights
• 比较中国和美国燃煤电厂对整体经济就业的影响。
• 燃煤电厂的部署促进了中国整体经济的就业增长。
• 燃煤电厂关闭对美国整体经济的就业影响不显著。
• 煤炭淘汰需要政策支持，以确保公正的转型。
Abstract
Ensuring a swift transition from coal to clean energy is essential for capping global temperature increases at 1.5 °C, but it poses significant economic and social challenges in coal-dependent regions. This paper examines the economy-wide employment impacts resulting from the activities of coal-fired power plants in China and the United States, the world's largest coal consumers. By analyzing observational data on the different stages of coal power, including both expansion and reduction in the two countries, we aim to derive insights that can inform a more effective and just transition during the phase-out of coal power. We leveraged unique periods post-2010 when China was predominantly opening coal plants while the US was closing them, identifying the economy-wide employment impacts at the county level. By using both two-way fixed effects and spatial econometric models for over 10 years of panel data, covering 2875 in China and 3233 counties in the US, we addressed spillover effects and ensured robust and comprehensive results. Our findings revealed that in China, coal plant deployment increased employment both locally and in the neighboring counties. In the U.S., our findings indicate that before 2015, closing coal plants generally had a negative impact on jobs. However, after 2015, when the U.S. introduced new federal and state-level transition policies, the impact on employment became positive. While it is hard to prove these policies directly facilitate the just transition, our findings demonstrate that they do not hinder the employment aspect of a just transition focused on coal power generation at a regional scale.
Keywords
Employment
Coal phase-out
Just transition
Policy
Graphics
Fig. 1. Historical trends of coal-fired power plants in the United States and China. a. New built and retired coal plants in the United States between 2010 and 2024. b. New built and retired coal plants in China between 2010 and 2024. c. New capacity added and retired by year in the United States between 1940 and 2024. d. New capacity added and retired by year in China between 1960 and 2024.
Fig. 2. Timeline of policy to ensure just transition in the United States. a. Federal level policies. b. State level policies.
团队介绍
本研究由美国马里兰大学公共政策学院全球可持续发展中心、上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院的研究人员共同完成。
第一作者简介：Jiehong Lou是马里兰大学公共政策学院全球可持续发展中心的助理研究教授和助理研究主任。她的专业领域包括：气候金融和碳金融、能源经济学、环境政策、能源政策、可持续发展、公平性和交通公正。楼的研究主要集中在动员私人融资以支持气候行动、企业在碳项目投资中的动机、评估气候金融项目的共同效益、测量气候金融和投资需求中的不同风险类型、能源消费行为改变干预，以及交通可达性对不同经济和少数群体的影响。她曾在马里兰大学工程学院的交通研究所担任博士后研究员。她获得了马里兰大学的政策科学博士学位，专注于环境和能源政策；马里兰大学的公共政策硕士学位和应用经济学硕士学位；以及中国同济大学的公共政策学士学位。
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