原文信息：
Batteries, fuel cells, or engines? A probabilistic economic and environmental assessment of electricity and electrofuels for heavy goods vehicles
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792422000282
Abstract
Uncertainty surrounding the total cost of ownership, system costs, and life cycle environmental impacts means that stakeholders may lack the required information to evaluate the risks of transitioning to low-carbon fuels and powertrains. This paper assesses the life cycle costs and well-to-wheel environmental impacts of using electricity and electrofuels in Heavy Good Vehicles (HGVs) whilst considering input parameter uncertainty. The complex relationship between electricity cost, electrolyser capacity factor, CO2 capture cost and electricity emissions intensity is assessed within a Monte Carlo based framework to identify scenarios where use of electricity or electrofuels in heavy goods vehicles makes economic and environmental sense. For vehicles with a range of less than 450 km, battery electric vehicles achieve the lowest total cost of ownership for an electricity cost less than 100 €/MWh. For vehicles that require a range of up to 900 km, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles represent the lowest long-term cost of abatement. Power-to-methane and power-to-liquid scenarios become economically competitive when low-cost electricity is available at high-capacity factors and CO2 capture costs for fuel synthesis are below 100 €/t CO2; these fuels may be more applicable to decarbonise shipping and aviation. Battery electric HGVs reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to the diesel baseline with electricity emissions of 350 g CO2 e/kWh. Electricity emissions less than 35 g CO2 e/kWh are required for the power-to-methane and power-to-liquid scenarios to meet EU emissions savings criteria. High vehicle capital costs and a lack of widespread refuelling infrastructure may hinder initial uptake of low-carbon fuels and powertrains for HGVs.
Keywords
Heavy goods vehicles
Electrofuels
Total cost of ownership
GHG emissions
Levelised cost of carbon abatement
Monte Carlo analysis
Graphics
Fig. 1. Pathways for electricity use in heavy goods vehicles.
Fig. 4. Vehicle capital cost calculation concept.
Fig. 13. Relative total system costs of battery electric vehicles (BEV), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEV), internal combustion engine power-to-methane (ICE-PtM), and internal combustion engine power-to-liquid (ICE-PtL) heavy goods vehicles compared to the diesel baseline for (a) 2025, (b) 2030, and (c) 2040.
Fig. 14. Relative well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions of electricity and electrofuels in HGVs as a function of electricity emissions intensity (2025).
Fig. 16. Electricity supply required to power a single BEV, HFCEV, ICE-PtM, or ICE-PtL HGV.
关于Applied Energy
本期小编：于丹； 审核人：阿里亚
《Applied Energy》是世界能源领域著名学术期刊，在全球出版巨头爱思唯尔 (Elsevier) 旗下，1975年创刊，影响因子11.446，CiteScore 20.4，高被引论文ESI全球工程期刊排名第4，谷歌学术全球学术期刊第53，本刊旨在为清洁能源转换技术、能源过程和系统优化、能源效率、智慧能源、环境污染物及温室气体减排、能源与其他学科交叉融合、以及能源可持续发展等领域提供交流分享和合作的平台。开源（Open Access）姊妹新刊《Advances in Applied Energy》现已正式上线。在《Applied Energy》的成功经验基础上，致力于发表应用能源领域顶尖科研成果，并为广大科研人员提供一个快速权威的学术交流和发表平台，欢迎关注！
公众号团队小编招募长期开放，欢迎发送自我简介（含教育背景、研究方向等内容）至wechat@applied-energy.org
点击“阅读原文”
喜欢我们的内容？
点个“赞”或者“再看”支持下吧！
