原文信息：
Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792423000136
Highlights
• 欧洲未利用的地理潜力仍然很大。
• 在巴黎协定的约束下，气候对欧洲可再生能源供应的影响有限。
•跨区域水平存在强烈的季节性风-光互补性。
• 评估了国家之间同时可再生能源匮乏的风险。
• 中西欧国家和波兰是欧洲范围内同时可再生能源匮乏的热点地区。
Abstract
To meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under a Paris-proof climate scenario and a comprehensive energy conversion model, this study assesses the projected changes of European VRE supply from the perspective of average production, production variability, spatiotemporal complementarity, and risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts.
For the period 2045–2055, we find a minor reduction in average wind and solar production for most of Europe compared to the period 1990–2010. At the country level, the impact of climate change on average VRE production is rather limited in magnitude (within ±3% for wind and ±2% for solar). The projected mid-term changes in other aspects of VRE supply are also relatively small. This suggests climate-related impacts on European VRE supply are less of a concern if the Paris-proof emission reduction pathway is strictly followed.
Based on spectral analysis, we identify strong seasonal wind-solar complementarities (with an anticorrelation between -0.6 and -0.9) at the cross-regional level. This reduces the demand for seasonal storage but requires coordinated cross-border efforts to develop a pan-European transmission infrastructure.
The risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts between a country and the rest of Europe remains non-negligible, even under the copperplate assumption. Central Western European countries and Poland are most vulnerable to such risk, suggesting the need for the planning of adequate flexibility resources.
Keywords
Energy
Renewable energy
Climate change
Paris Agreement
Wind
Solar
Energy droughts
Dunkelflaute
Wind-solar complementarity
Cross-border
Energy system
Climate impact
Capacity factor
VRE
Energy conversion
Copula
Tail dependence
Futute climate
Europe
Spectral analysis
Power system
Fig. 1. An overview of the research method.
Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of geographic potentials of VRE assets across Europe.
Fig. 10. Historic, future and relative climate signal of CF for VRE assets across Europe.
Fig. 11. Historic, future and climate signal of raw standard deviation for VRE assets across Europe.
Fig. 13. Climate signal of normalized standard deviation for wind across Europe at multiple timescales.
Fig. 14. Historic, future and climate signal of normalized standard deviation for solar across Europe at multiple timescales.
Fig. 15. Historic, future and climate signal of country-wide wind-solar correlation.
Fig. 16. Historic, future and climate signal of cross-regional wind-solar correlation (cycle components).
Fig. 18. Historic, future and climate signal of conditional probability for cross-border energy drought events.
Fig. 19. Historic, future and climate signal of conditional probability for EU-wide renewable energy drought events.
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