原文信息：
Why we must move beyond LCOE for renewable energy design
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792422000300
Highlights
（1）Wind and solar generation devaluation occurs for grids with high renewable shares.
（2）This effect, due to intermittency, dramatically reduces the value of generated energy.
（3）Cost of Valued Energy can be used to account for this intermittency penalty.
（4）Minimizing COVE can improve VRE system design to better meet demand.
Abstract
The inherent intermittency of wind and solar energy challenges the relevance of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for their future design since LCOE neglects the time-varying price of electricity. The Cost of Valued Energy (COVE) is an improved valuation metric that takes into account time-dependent electricity prices. In particular, it integrates short-term (e.g., hourly) wind and solar energy “generation devaluation”, whereby high wind and/or solar energy generation can lead to low, and even negative, energy prices for grids with high renewable penetration. These aspects are demonstrated and quantified with examples of two large grids with high renewable shares using three approaches to model hourly price: (1) residual demand, (2) wind and solar generation, and (3) statistical price-generation correlation. All three approaches indicate significant generation devaluation. The residual demand approach provides the most accurate price information while statistical correlations show that generation devaluation is most pronounced for the Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) that dominates market share (e.g., solar for California and wind for Germany). In some cases, the cost of valued energy relative to levelized cost can be 43% higher for solar (CAISO) and 129% higher for wind (ERCOT). This indicates that COVE is a much more relevant metric than LCOE in such markets. This is because COVE is based on the annualized system costs relative to the annualized spot market revenue, and thus considers economic effects of costs vs. revenue as well as those of supply vs. demand. As such, COVE (instead of LCOE) is recommended to design and value next-generation renewable energy systems, including storage integration tradeoffs. However, more work is needed to develop generation devaluation models for projected grids and markets and to better classify grid characteristics as we head to a carbon-neutral energy future.
Keywords
LCOE; COVE; Cost of energy; Wind; Solar; Renewable energy; Devaluation; Demand
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1. Energy generation for CAISO for an example 24-h day in 2021 CAISO data showing large variations in renewable penetration.
Fig. 2. Normalized hourly electricity prices as a function of residual demand (carbon-based demand) showing that the mean trends are represented by a linear price model shown by blue lines (and equations) of average price for a given residual value for: (a) Germany data (green symbols) for 2019, and (b) CAISO data (red symbols) for 2021. For Germany and CAISO, respectively, the linear models have an R2=0.667 and R2=0.234 when based on all data, and an R2=0.998 and R2=0.981 when based only on the mean price for a given normalized residual.
Fig 3. Normalized electricity hourly spot price as a function of percentage of wind and solar (combined) relative to all generation showing that a quadratic price model represents the average price trends for: (a) Germany (green symbols) with R2 of 0.508 for all data and (b) CAISO (red symbols) with R2 of 0.159 for all data.
Fig 4. Normalized electricity hourly spot price as a function of percentage of wind (top row) or solar (bottom row) generation relative to all generation along with quadratic model curves: (a) Germany (green symbols) for all data and (b) CAISO (red symbols) for all data.
Fig 5. Influence of operating capacity factor ranges for various energy generation sources, showing that COVE>LCOE for intermittent sources but COVE<LCOE for dispatchable sources
关于Applied Energy
本期小编：王昊博；审核人：张俊涛
《Applied Energy》是世界能源领域著名学术期刊，在全球出版巨头爱思唯尔 (Elsevier) 旗下，1975年创刊，影响因子11.446，CiteScore 20.4，高被引论文ESI全球工程期刊排名第4，谷歌学术全球学术期刊第50，本刊旨在为清洁能源转换技术、能源过程和系统优化、能源效率、智慧能源、环境污染物及温室气体减排、能源与其他学科交叉融合、以及能源可持续发展等领域提供交流分享和合作的平台。开源（Open Access）姊妹新刊《Advances in Applied Energy》现已正式上线。在《Applied Energy》的成功经验基础上，致力于发表应用能源领域顶尖科研成果，并为广大科研人员提供一个快速权威的学术交流和发表平台，欢迎关注！
公众号团队小编招募长期开放，欢迎发送自我简介（含教育背景、研究方向等内容）至wechat@applied-energy.org
点击“阅读原文”
提交文章吧
喜欢我们的内容？
点个“赞”或者“再看”支持下吧！
