The Economist-20241109期「Britain」Labour's budget: Gilt vigilantes
02 全文梳理
【para1】最新预算案👉英国工党10月30日宣布最新预算案，阐明完全不同于保守党的经济政策
【para2】市场反应👉新预算案提出通过发债等手段大幅提升财政支出，政府债券收益率相应上涨
【para3】市场观点👉市场普遍担心经济过热时进行大幅财政刺激会加剧通胀
【para4】工党自证👉工党认为发债投资会提高市场供给从而降低通胀，但实际上短期内该观点根本站不住脚
【para5】比下有余👉从英镑币值波动来看，目前预算案对经济的影响还算可控，没那么糟糕
【para6】权衡利弊👉此番财政宽松政策中有太多利弊需要权衡：挤出效应、家庭经济压力、公共支出的有效性
03 原文阅读 502words
Labour's budget: Gilt vigilantes
Some market wobbles, but not another “mini-budget”
Labour's budget: Gilt vigilantes
Some market wobbles, but not another “mini-budget”
[5] Still, Ms Reeves is nowhere near Ms Truss territory. One straightforward measure of the pain in 2022 was the value of sterling. All else being equal, higher interest rates should boost a rich-world currency, but sterling crashed after the Truss mini-budget. This time, barring a troubling wobble on October 31st, there have been no such dramatic currency moves to follow Ms Reeves's budget.
[6] Above all, the rise in gilt yields crystallises the fact that Ms Reeves's fiscal loosening entails unavoidable trade-offs. The government talks about “crowding in” private investment through vehicles like its National Wealth Fund, but it will be crowded out by its own borrowing. Households, too, will feel the impact of higher mortgages. Pain elsewhere in the economy could still be a price worth paying for higher public investment in Britain's public services and infrastructure. But the perils are real, too. If that money is not spent well—and governments of all stripes have a sorry record of frittering away public money—the budget's main effect will have been to set the economy back and remind Britain that borrowed money is not free. ■
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