【致思篇】2024诺奖得主的能源经济学研究汇编

文摘   其他   2024-10-21 08:15   中国香港  

致思

子曰:“於斯致思,无所不至。”《笔墨之林·致思篇》作为本公众号推出的新栏目,将进一步聚焦能源与可持续发展领域,每期围绕一个研究主题,撷取近期发表在UTD24与FT50期刊的相关研究,追踪学术热点,把握研究动态。

期主题:定向创新与能源转型

2024年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者是达龙·阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)、西蒙·约翰逊(Simon Johnson)和詹姆斯·A·罗宾逊(James A. Robinson)。他们因在研究制度如何形成以及这些制度如何影响国家繁荣方面的突出贡献而获奖。阿西莫格鲁和约翰逊均为麻省理工学院教授,罗宾逊则是芝加哥大学教授。他们的研究揭示了包容性制度(如民主和法治)会促进经济增长,而掠夺性制度则会导致经济停滞和贫困。他们的工作为理解全球地区间经济增长差异和收入不平等的根源提供了重要的理论支持。


阿西莫格鲁涉猎广泛,研究领域涵括经济增长、技术演化、收入分配、社会网络、契约理论、劳动经济学、制度经济学等多个方面。在能源与环境领域,阿西莫格鲁的研究涉及定向技术创新(directed innovation)及其演化、清洁能源使用与经济增长路径选择等重要话题。定向技术创新是能源需求和价格波动引致的创新变化。由于相对价格变化,研发重点和资金在清洁技术与非清洁技术之间重新分配,从而最终影响技术创新的方向。研究内生增长模型中的定向创新及其演化有助于区分化石能源价格波动的短期效应和长期效应,为平衡增长路径选择提供依据。在不同的市场环境下(如资源约束、技术与污染的外部性、市场势力等),定向创新可能会扭曲市场均衡,导致社会福利损失。政府的干预,如征收碳税或研发补贴,通常有助于清洁技术创新。但是这种向清洁生产的转型通常面临高昂的福利成本,且过程缓慢。内生定向创新的增长模型为政府制定最优碳税和补贴政策提供了理论依据和经验指导。


本期推荐的七篇文章以阿西莫格鲁及其合作者发展的基于定向创新的内生增长分析框架为基础,探讨了气候变化、能源转型,以及清洁技术发展等能源经济学问题。这些研究丰富了技术进步与能源环境经济学的相关文献,为理解人类社会适应和缓解气候变化的能源转型政策和清洁生产行为提供了重要的理论依据。


本期目录
  1. 可再生能源电力市场中的竞争 (The Energy Journal)

  2. 向清洁技术转型 (JPE)

  3. 环境与定向技术变革 (AER)

  4. 南北模型中的环境与定向技术变革 (Oxford Rev. Econ. Pol.)

  5. 扭曲的创新: 市场是否正确把握了技术发展的方向?(AEAPP)

  6. 气候变化、定向创新和能源转型:页岩气革命的长期影响 (NBER)

  7. 绿色创新与向清洁经济的转型 (NBER)

01
题目Competition in electricity markets with renewable energy sources (可再生能源电力市场中的竞争)
作者Daron Acemoglu, Ali Kakhbod, Asuman Ozdaglar

摘要:This paper studies the effects of the diversification of energy portfolios on the merit order effect in an oligopolistic energy market. The merit order effect describes the negative impact of renewable energy, typically supplied at the low marginal cost, to the electricity market. We show when thermal generators have a diverse energy portfolio, meaning that they also control some or all of the renewable supplies, they offset the price declines due to the merit order effect because they strategically reduce their conventional energy supplies when renewable supply is high. In particular, when all renewable supply generates profits for only thermal power generators this offset is complete — meaning that the merit order effect is totally neutralized. As a consequence, diversified energy portfolios may be welfare reducing. These results are robust to the presence of forward contracts and incomplete information (with or without correlated types). We further use our full model with incomplete information to study the volatility of energy prices in the presence of intermittent and uncertain renewable supplies.

本文研究了能源投资组合多样化对寡头能源市场中优序效应的影响。优序效应描述了可再生能源对电力市场的负面影响,尤其是可再生能源的边际成本较低时。我们发现,当热能发电商拥有多样化的能源组合,即他们控制一些或全部的可再生能源时,他们能够抵消由于优序效应导致的价格下降。这是因为在可再生能源供给充足时,他们会策略性地减少常规能源的供应。尤其是,当所有可再生能源的收益全部由热能发电商获得时,这种抵消是完全的——即优序效应被完全中和。因此,多样化的能源投资组合可能会降低福利。这些结果在存在远期合同和不完全信息(相关或不相关)的情况下依然稳健。我们进一步利用包含不完全信息的完整模型研究了在间歇性和不确定性可再生能源供应下的能源价格波动问题。

原文:Acemoglu, D., Kakhbod, A., & Ozdaglar, A. (2017). Competition in electricity markets with renewable energy sources. The Energy Journal, 38, 137-156.

https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.38.SI1.dace


02
题目Transition to Clean Technology (向清洁技术转型)
作者Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Douglas Hanley, William Kerr

摘要:We develop an endogenous growth model in which clean and dirty technologies compete in production. Research can be directed to either technology. If dirty technologies are more advanced, the transition to clean technology can be difficult. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may encourage production and innovation in clean technologies, though the transition will typically be slow. We estimate the model using microdata from the US energy sector. We then characterize the optimal policy path that heavily relies on both subsidies and taxes. Finally, we evaluate various alternative policies. Relying only on carbon taxes or delaying intervention has significant welfare costs.

我们开发了一个允许清洁和污染技术在生产过程中相互竞争的内生增长模型。研发可以被导向至两种技术中的一种。如果污染技术更加先进,那么向清洁技术的转型将非常困难。碳税和研发补贴可能会促进清洁技术的生产和创新,尽管转型通常会比较缓慢。我们使用美国能源部门的微观数据来估计该模型。继而,我们描述了一个高度依赖补贴和税收的最优政策路径。最后,我们评估了各种替代政策。仅依靠碳税或延迟干预将带来显著的福利成本。

原文:Acemoglu, D., Akcigit, U., Hanley, D., & Kerr, W. (2016). Transition to clean technology. Journal of Political Economy, 124(1), 52-104.

https://doi.org/10.1086/684511


03
题目The environment and directed technical change (环境与定向技术变革) 

作者Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, Leonardo Bursztyn, David Hémous

摘要:This paper introduces endogenous and directed technical change in a growth model with environmental constraints. The final good is produced from "dirty" and "clean" inputs. We show that: (i) when inputs are sufficiently substitutable, sustainable growth can be achieved with temporary taxes/subsidies that redirect innovation toward clean inputs; (ii) optimal policy involves both "carbon taxes" and research subsidies, avoiding excessive use of carbon taxes; (iii) delay in intervention is costly, as it later necessitates a longer transition phase with slow growth; and (iv) use of an exhaustible resource in dirty input production helps the switch to clean innovation under laissez-faire.

本文将环境约束下的内生定向技术变革引入增长模型。最终产品的生产基于“脏”和“清洁”两种投入品。我们发现: (1)当投入品间的可替代性足够强时,短期税收或补贴政策可以通过引致与清洁投入品有关的定向创新实现可持续增长; (2)最优的政策组合需要同时使用碳税和研发补贴,而非过度使用碳税政策; (3)由于越晚开始干预转型耗时越久,且转型阶段的经济增长缓慢,因此延迟干预的代价是高昂的; (4)自由放任条件下,在“脏”投入品生产中使用可耗尽资源有助于转向清洁创新。

原文:Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Bursztyn, L., & Hémous, D. (2012). The environment and directed technical change. American Eonomic Review, 102(1), 131-166.

https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.1.131


04
题目The environment and directed technical change in a North–South model (南北模型中的环境与定向技术变革)
作者Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, David Hémous

摘要:A key question in the economics of climate change is the importance of global policy coordination in reducing carbon emissions. In this paper, we study this question using a two-country (North–South) extension of Acemoglu et al. (2012) which introduces directed technical change into a general equilibrium model of climate change. We find that, first, the optimal policy necessarily requires global policy coordination, with the implementation of research subsidies and carbon taxes in both North and South. Second, under certain circumstances, appropriately chosen environmental regulations in the North alone can prevent the worst environmental disasters. In particular, such disasters can be prevented by a combination of carbon taxes and clean research subsidies under the restrictive conditions that (a) the two inputs are substitutable in both countries; (b) there is no international trade between the North and the South; and (c) the South imitates technologies invented in the North. Third, international trade between the North and the South typically makes it more difficult to prevent environmental disasters through unilateral policies in the North, because environmental regulation in the North may induce full specialization by the South in dirty input production, as imitation of clean technologies by the South then ceases to be profitable. Hence, given current circumstances, global policy coordination is highly desirable.

通过全球政策协调以减少碳排放是气候变化经济学中的一个关键问题。Acemoglu et al. (2012)在气候变化的一般均衡模型中引入了定向技术变革。本文中,我们通过引入“南北”两国拓展了该模型。我们发现,第一,最优政策必然需要全球政策协调,要求在北方国家和南方国家同时实施研究补贴和碳税。第二,在某些情况下,单独在北方国家实行适当的环境法规可以防止最严重的环境灾难。具体而言,通过碳税和对清洁研发进行补贴的政策组合可以预防这些灾难,前提是满足以下限制条件: (a)两种投入在两个国家之间是可替代的; (b)北方和南方之间没有国际贸易; (c)南方模仿北方发明的技术。第三,南北之间的国际贸易通常使得北方国家的单边政策更难以防止环境灾难的发生,这是因为北方国家的环境法规可能会导致南方国家完全专注于污染性投入的生产,从而使得南方国家模仿清洁技术不再有利可图。因此,在当前情况下,全球政策协调是非常必要的。

原文:Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., & Hémous, D. (2014). The environment and directed technical change in a North–South model. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 30(3), 513-530. 

https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/gru031


05
题目Distorted innovation: Does the market get the direction of technology right? (扭曲的创新: 市场是否正确把握了技术发展的方向?)
作者Daron Acemoglu

摘要:In the presence of markup differences, externalities, and other social effects, the direction of innovation can be systematically distorted. I build a simple model of endogenous technology to study distortions in the direction of innovation. Empirical findings across a number of different areas are consistent with this framework's predictions. I use data from several studies to estimate the framework's key parameters and combine them with rough estimates of differential externalities and markups to provide suggestive evidence that innovation distortions can be substantial in the context of industrial automation, health care, and energy, and that correcting them could have sizable welfare benefits.

在存在加价差异、外部性和其他社会效应的情况下,创新的方向可能会被系统性地扭曲。我建立了一个简单的内生技术模型来研究创新方向的扭曲。多个不同领域的实证研究结果与该框架的预测一致。我使用来自几项研究的数据来估计该框架的关键参数,并将其与不同外部性和加价的粗略估计相结合。研究结果表明,在工业自动化、医疗保障和能源领域,创新扭曲可能相当显著,纠正这些扭曲可能带来可观的福利收益。

原文:Acemoglu, D. (2023). Distorted innovation: does the market get the direction of technology right? AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113, 1-28.

https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20231000


06

题目Climate change, directed innovation, and energy transition: The long-run consequences of the shale gas revolution (气候变化、定向创新和能源转型: 页岩气革命的长期影响)

作者Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, Lint Barrage, David Hémous

摘要:We investigate the short- and long-term effects of a natural gas boom in an economy where energy can be produced with coal, natural gas, or clean sources and the direction of technology is endogenous. In the short run, a natural gas boom reduces carbon emissions by inducing substitution away from coal. Yet, the natural gas boom discourages innovation directed at clean energy, which delays and can even permanently prevent the energy transition to zero carbon. We formalize and quantitatively evaluate these forces using a benchmark model of directed technical change for the energy sector. Quantitatively, the technology response to the shale gas boom results in a significant increase in emissions as the US economy is pushed into a “fossil-fuel trap” where long-run innovations shift away from renewables. Overall, the shale gas boom reduces our measure of social welfare under laissez-faire, whereas, combined with carbon taxes and more generous green subsidies, it could have increased welfare substantially.

我们研究了页岩气革命对一个可以使用煤炭、天然气或清洁能源的经济体的短期和长期影响。并且,这个经济体科技的发展方向是内生的。在短期内,丰富的天然气可以替代煤炭的使用,从而减少碳排放。然而,丰富的天然气供给抑制了针对清洁能源的创新,这延迟甚至可能永久阻碍了向碳中和的转型。我们使用能源部门的定向技术变革基准模型来形式化和定量评估这些力量。定量分析结果表明,页岩气革命导致的技术变化显著增加了碳排放,将美国经济推入了一个“化石燃料陷阱”,导致长期创新偏离可再生能源。总体而言,在没有外部干预的情况下,页岩气革命降低了社会福利,而结合碳税和更积极的绿色补贴政策,可能会显著提高福利。

原文:Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Barrage, L., & Hémous, D. (2023). Climate change, directed innovation, and energy transition: The long-run consequences of the shale gas revolution. NBER Working Paper, No. w31657

https://ssrn.com/abstract=4567661


07

题目Green innovation and the transition toward a clean economy (绿色创新与向清洁经济的转型)

作者Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, Lint Barrage, David Hémous

摘要:To combat climate change without sacrificing long-term economic growth, innovation must be redirected toward green technologies. The authors review recent literature that has developed a directed technical change framework where innovation can be endogenously targeted either toward fossil-fuel enhancing technologies or clean energy sources (such as renewables). They provide empirical evidence of path dependence in firms’ choice between green and dirty innovation. They then draw implications of this path dependence for the design of environmental policy and for economic growth. In particular, they show that their framework has distinctive implications regarding unilateral environmental policies, international cooperation, the use of intermediate energy sources such as natural gas, and the role of civil society.

为了应对气候变化而不牺牲长期经济增长,创新必须被导向绿色技术。作者回顾了近期文献中发展的定向技术变革分析框架。在该框架中,创新可以内生性地针对化石燃料增强技术或清洁能源(如可再生能源)。他们提供了企业在绿色和污染性创新之间选择的路径依赖的实证证据。接着,他们阐述了这种路径依赖对环境政策设计和经济增长的影响。特别是,他们显示了该框架对单边环境政策、国际合作、使用天然气等中间能源以及公民社会角色的重要启示意义。

原文:Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Barrage, L., & Hémous, D. (2023). Green innovation and the transition toward a clean economy. NBER Working Paper, No. 23-14

http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4816734


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