《JAERE》2024年11月刊导读

1. 间歇性或不确定性？可再生能源对电力市场的影响

2. 市场失灵是否会在循环经济中造成“耐久性差距”?

3. 备用电源：私人替代品对电网可靠性的公共影响（JAERE主编推荐文章）

4. 太阳能地球工程、学习和实验

5. 禁止低能效产品：市场反应与调整成本

6. 中国废物进口禁令与美国固体废物管理：废物“避风港”消失的影响

7. 网约车服务加剧了交通拥堵和空气污染？Uber进入加州的证据

8. 爆“火”：亚马逊地区的大众关注度和环境保护行动

题目：Do Market Failures Create a “Durability Gap” in the Circular Economy?（市场失灵是否会在循环经济中造成“耐久性差距”?）

作者：Don Fullerton, Shan He

摘要：The interdisciplinary circular economy literature recommends longer-lasting products, to reduce pollution from repeated production and disposal. For any type of appliance, we assume that consumers choose among variants with different durability. Firms are competitive. Standard Pigouvian analysis shows that optimal taxes depend on pollution and not on product life. Here, we find conditions where consumers choose lives that are too short—a “durability gap.” First, we show that suboptimal existing output taxes imply suboptimal durability. An increase in uniform tax on all variants encourages purchase of a more durable variant and raises welfare. Second, welfare also is raised by a subsidy for choosing a more durable variant or by a marginally binding durability mandate. Third, we find that a social discount rate less than the private rate is the strongest case for policy to favor durability. Fourth, the consumer misperceptions we study have ambiguous implications for durability policy.

跨学科的循环经济文献建议生产更耐用的产品，以减少因重复生产和处置而产生的污染。对于任何类型的电器，我们假设消费者在不同耐用性的型号之间进行选择，且企业处于竞争性的市场。标准的庇古税分析表明，最优税收应基于污染程度而非产品寿命。然而，我们发现消费者选择的产品寿命往往过短，形成了“耐用性差距”。首先，现有的次优产出税导致了次优的耐用性。增加对所有型号的统一税收可以鼓励购买更耐用的型号，从而提升整体福利水平。其次，通过对选择更耐用型号实施补贴或设定边际约束的强制购买耐用性型号电器要求，也能提高整体福利。第三，我们发现社会折现率低于私人折现率是政策支持耐用性的最有力理由。最后，消费者认知偏差对耐用性政策的影响尚不明确。

原文：Fullerton, D., & He, S. (2024). Do Market Failures Create a “Durability Gap” in the Circular Economy? Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 11(6), 1387-1417. https://doi.org/10.1086/729541

题目：Backup Power: Public Implications of Private Substitutes for Electric Grid Reliability（备用电源：私人替代品对电网可靠性的公共影响）

作者：Paul A. Brehm, Sarah Johnston, Ross Milton

摘要：Private substitutes for electric grid reliability are common. We study their adoption and distributional implications. We first show that US households buy substitutes in response to a perceived decrease in grid reliability and that higher-income households are more likely to adopt them. We then develop a theoretical model of public provision of grid reliability in the presence of private substitutes that is consistent with these facts. The existence of substitutes increases aggregate welfare and reduces the efficient level of reliability spending. Using a calibrated version of the model, we find that, even though only a few households adopt batteries, most nonadopting households benefit from their availability. Battery adoption reduces utilities’ reliability spending, resulting in lower electricity bills for all customers. Most nonadopting households value these bill savings more than the reduced grid reliability.

通过安装私人备用电源以提升电网可靠性的做法十分常见。我们研究了这些私人替代方案的使用情况及对不同人群的影响。首先，我们发现感知到公共电网可靠性下降的家庭和高收入的家庭更可能使用私人电源。我们基于上述事实构建了一个理论模型，以模拟在考虑存在私人备用电源的情况下公共电网的可靠性供应情况。结果发现，替代方案的存在不仅提高了社会整体福利，还降低了实现电网可靠性的有效支出水平。通过对模型进行校准，我们进一步发，即便只有少数家庭安装私人备用电源，大多数未安装的家庭也会从中受益。私人备用电源的使用减少了公共电网在可靠性方面的支出，从而降低了所有居民的电费。相较于电网可靠性的降低，大多数未安装私人替代电网的家庭更看重节省电费带来的收益。

原文：Brehm, P. A., Johnston, S., & Milton, R. (2024). Backup Power: Public Implications of Private Substitutes for Electric Grid Reliability. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 11(6), 1419-1445. https://doi.org/10.1086/730158

题目：Solar Geoengineering, Learning, and Experimentation（太阳能地球工程、学习和实验）

作者：David L. Kelly, Garth Heutel, Juan B. Moreno-Cruz, Soheil Shayegh

摘要：Solar geoengineering (SGE) can offset climate change by directly reducing temperatures. Both SGE and climate change itself are surrounded by great uncertainties. Implementing SGE affects learning about these uncertainties. We model endogenous learning over two uncertainties: the sensitivity of temperatures to carbon concentrations (the climate sensitivity) and the effectiveness of SGE in lowering temperatures. We present both theoretical and simulation results from an integrated assessment model, focusing on the informational value of SGE experimentation. Surprisingly, under current calibrated conditions, SGE deployment slows learning, causing a less informed decision. For any reasonably sized experimental SGE deployment, the temperature change becomes closer to zero and thus more obscured by noisy weather shocks. Still, some SGE use is optimal despite, not because of, its informational value. The optimal amount of SGE is very sensitive to beliefs about both uncertainties.

太阳能地球工程 (SGE) 可以通过直接降低温度来缓解气候变化。然而，SGE和气候变化本身都充满巨大的不确定性。实施SGE会影响对这些不确定性的学习。我们构建了一个内生学习模型，考虑了主要的两种不确定性：（1）温度对碳浓度的敏感性（气候敏感性）的不确定性；（2）SGE降低温度效果的不确定性。通过综合评估模型的理论和模拟结果，我们重点关注SGE实验的信息价值。令人意外的是，在当前校准条件下，SGE的实施会减缓对不确定性的学习速度，进而导致不明智的决策。这是因为任何合理规模的实验性SGE的实施都会使得温度变化接近于零，且更容易受到天气冲击噪音的干扰。然而，尽管SGE的价值有限，一些 SGE实验项目仍然是最佳方案。SGE的最佳部署规模对这两种不确定性的信念非常敏感。