《The Energy Journal》2024年5月——文献导读

文摘其他 2024-08-21 08:15 中国香港

——目录——

1. 你想交易你的能源吗？一个能源交易平台比较调查实验

Shandelle Steadman, Anna Rita Bennato, Monica Giulietti

2. 去碳化经济中的电力零售价格设计：分时电价和尖峰电价的分析

Tim Schittekatte, Dharik Mallapragada, Paul L. Joskow, Richard Schmalensee

3. 理解COVID-19疫情期间日内油价动态：来自石油和股票投资者情绪的新证据

Mohamed Arbi Madani, Zied Ftiti

4. 基于模拟的日内电力市场预测：价格分布位置、形状和规模的基本驱动因素建模

Simon Hirsch, Florian Ziel

5. 通过运行备用需求曲线实现资源充足：设计选项及其对市场均衡的影响

Georg Thomaßen, Thomas Bruckner

6. 电力短缺与企业预期投资：来自中国制造业中小企业的证据

Dong Cheng, Xunpeng Shi

7. 多目标政策对绿色生产率的影响：来自中国化石燃料发电厂的证据

Yu Zhao, Yunning Ma, Yongrok Choi, Ning Zhang

8. 政府援助家庭能源账单有什么好处？来自乌克兰的证据

Anna Alberini, Nithin Umapathi

9. 通过新费率设计解锁灵活的电动汽车充电

Icaro Silvestre Freitas Gomes, Adam F. Abdin, Jakob Puchinger, Yannick Perez

分割线

➥

1. 你想交易你的能源吗？一个能源交易平台比较调查实验

Shandelle Steadman, Anna Rita Bennato, Monica Giulietti

随着能源市场的日益去中心化，能源交易平台正逐渐成为促进协调能源消费和发电的重要工具，鼓励着居民生产者和消费者更高效地利用可再生能源。我们通过对三个不同欧洲国家的研究，探讨了交易平台上货币型和非货币型激励促进能源交易的有效性。我们使用一个激励调查实验来评估消费者和产销者参与能源交易平台意愿的驱动因素。我们发现，货币型激励并不一定是人们选择交易其所持有能源的主要原因，但在诸如环境关注和从国家电网独立等维度却发挥了重要作用。

As energy markets become more decentralised, energy trading platforms are emerging as useful tools to facilitate the coordination of energy consumption and generation, encouraging a more efficient use of renewable energy by residential producers and consumers. By exploring three different European countries, we study the effectiveness of both monetary and non-monetary incentives in fostering energy trade via trading platforms. We use an incentivized survey experiment to evaluate the drivers of consumers’ and prosumers’ willingness to participate in an energy trading platform. We find that the monetary incentive is not necessarily the main reason why people would choose to trade their energy, but other dimensions, such as environmental concerns and independence from the national grid, play an important role.

原文：Steadman, S., Rita Bennato, A., & Giulietti, M. (2024). Would You Like to Trade Your Energy? A Comparative Survey Experiment on Energy Trading Platforms. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.sste.

➥

2. 去碳化经济中的电力零售价格设计：分时电价和尖峰电价的分析

Tim Schittekatte, Dharik Mallapragada, Paul L. Joskow, Richard Schmalensee

当前，美国大多数消费者的电费账单主要是基于千瓦时消耗量的固定价格。随着间歇性可再生资源和可在几日内转移的灵活负荷（如电车充电）在电力系统中愈加重要，以批发现货价格代替固定价格这一形式实现的效率提高将会进一步增加。然而，这种变革缺乏足够的政治支持。我们聚焦于次优的替代方案：分时电价（TOU）和尖峰电价（CPP）。我们引入了一种专注于日内负荷转移的替代评估标准。借助历史数据，我们发现分时电价（TOU）能够合理复现给定现货价格时日内电力负荷转移激励。因此，分时电价，特别是在罕见的涉及负荷控制的稀缺性价格事件中与尖峰电价（CPP）组合使用时，能够发挥远远高于预期的社会价值。

Currently, the main component of most U.S. consumers’ electricity bills is based on a constant price per kWh consumed. As intermittent renewable resources and flexible loads that can be shifted within days (such as electric vehicle charging) gain prominence in the electricity system, the efficiency gains to be realized from basing bills instead on wholesale spot prices increase. There is little political support for this change, however. We focus on second-best alternatives: time-of-use (TOU) rates and critical peak pricing (CPP). We introduce alternative assessment criteria that focus on intra-day load shifting. Using historical data, we find that TOU rates can reasonably replicate the intra-day load-shifting incentives provided under spot pricing. Thus, TOU rates, especially when complemented with CPP involving load control during infrequent scarcity price events, can be considerably more socially valuable than previously estimated.

原文：Schittekatte, T., Mallapragada, D., Joskow, P. L., & Schmalensee, R. (2024). Electricity Retail Rate Design in a Decarbonizing Economy: An Analysis of Time-of-use and Critical Peak Pricing. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 25-56. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.tsch

➥

3. 理解COVID-19疫情期间日内油价动态：来自石油和股票投资者情绪的新证据‍

Mohamed Arbi Madani, Zied Ftiti

本研究利用与新闻和社交媒体相关的股票市场和石油投资者情绪数据（即汤森路透市场心理指数——TRMI情绪指数），衡量了投资者在最近的健康危机期间对西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货市场的关注。通过考虑油价动态的复杂性及其与投资者情绪的潜在互动，我们提出了一个新的非线性实证框架。我们的分析揭露了三个重要的发现：第一，我们观察到了WTI原油期货的超额收益和投资者情绪数据之间存在非线性关系的证据；第二，因果方向仅表现为从石油和股票市场投资者情绪指向石油回报率；第三，原油和股票市场情绪数据对原油回报率（即波动性）的影响始终是负面的。此外，相比于新闻相关的情绪数据，与社交媒体相关的情绪数据表现出更显著的交叉相关性。

This study employed intraday stock market and oil investor sentiment data related to news and social media (i.e., the Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices [TRMI] sentiment index) to gauge investors’ interest in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures market during the recent health crisis. We proposed an original nonlinear empirical framework by considering oil price dynamics’ complexity and its potential interaction with investor sentiment. The analysis revealed three noteworthy findings. First, we observed evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship between excess returns on WTI crude oil futures and investor sentiment data. Second, the causality direction moved only from oil and stock market investor sentiment to oil returns. Third, the impacts of oil and stock market sentiment data on crude oil returns (i.e., volatility) were always negative. Furthermore, sentiment data related to social media showed a more pronounced cross-correlation than that of news.

原文：Arbi Madani, M., & Ftiti, Z. (2024). Understanding Intraday Oil Price Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Oil and Stock Investor Sentiments. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 57-86. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.mmad

➥

4. 基于模拟的日内电力市场预测：价格分布位置、形状和规模的基本驱动因素建模

Simon Hirsch, Florian Ziel

近年来，由于间歇性可再生能源发电量的增加，欧洲日内电力市场在平衡预测误差方面变得愈加重要。然而，与日前市场相比，电力的日内定价过程的驱动因素仍然缺乏深入的研究。本文为日内市场中价格收益分布的位置、形状和规模提出了一种基于基本变量的建模策略。我们考虑了风力和太阳能预测值及其日内更新、停机、价格信息，以及从现货拍卖曲线导出的新型优先次序形状度量作为解释变量。通过模拟价格路径并将我们的模型的概率预测性能与先前研究提出的一个德国的基准模型进行比较，我们验证了模型有效性。该方法在预测性能方面取得了显著改进，特别是在分布尾部。同时，我们能够推导出各个驱动变量的贡献程度。我们发现，除了价格变化的第一个滞后期外，我们的基本变量对日内回报期望不具有解释能力。这意味着弱式有效市场假说，因为可再生能源预测变化和停机信息似乎已被市场定价所反映。我们发现，波动性受到优先顺序制度、交货时间和跨境订单簿关闭的影响。分布的尾部主要受到过去价格差异和交易活动的影响。我们的研究方法可以直接应用于欧洲其他连续的日内市场。

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday price process are still sparsely researched. In this paper, we propose a modelling strategy for the location, shape and scale parameters of the return distribution in intraday markets, based on fundamental variables. We consider wind and solar forecasts and their intraday updates, outages, price information and a novel measure for the shape of the merit-order, derived from spot auction curves as explanatory variables. We validate our modelling by simulating price paths and compare the probabilistic forecasting performance of our model to benchmark models in a forecasting study for the German market. The approach yields significant improvements in the forecasting performance, especially in the tails of the distribution. At the same time, we are able to derive the contribution of the driving variables. We find that, apart from the first lag of the price changes, none of our fundamental variables have explanatory power for the expected value of the intraday returns. This implies weak-form market efficiency as renewable forecast changes and outage information seems to be priced in by the market. We find that the volatility is driven by the merit-order regime, the time to delivery and the closure of cross-border order books. The tail of the distribution is mainly influenced by past price differences and trading activity. Our approach is directly transferable to other continuous intraday markets in Europe.

原文：Hirsch, S., & Ziel, F. (2024). Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 87-124. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.shir

➥

5. 通过运行备用需求曲线实现资源充足：设计选项及其对市场均衡的影响

Georg Thomaßen, Thomas Bruckner

在诸多电力系统中，运行备用需求曲线（ORDC）已成为电力市场设计的一部分。在实际短缺发生之前，当系统运行备用不足时，它们通过提高峰值价格来提高供应的安全性。然而，以往的研究表明ORDC对资源充足性的影响可能会受到优先次序效应的阻碍。

因此，我们提出了一种方法，以对具有ORDC 的市场投资进行建模。该方法特别捕捉了其与可再生能源部署的相互作用。我们采用了一个典型的电力系统设置来确定不同去碳化阶段的市场均衡，同时与传统的纯能源市场进行比较。传统的ORDC方法通过吸引额外的投资来不断提高可靠性。这种效应可以通过“转移”ORDC 来放大，从而提高平衡备用的支付意愿。我们的研究结果表明，只需适度增加成本，就能实现完美的可靠性。

Operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) have become part of the electricity market design in several power systems. They improve the security of supply through enhanced peak prices that occur already when the system is running low on operating reserves, before an actual shortfall occurs. Previous research, however, suggests that the ORDC’s impact on resource adequacy would be thwarted by the merit order effect.

Hence, we propose a methodology to model the investment in markets with ORDC, which specifically captures the interaction with renewable deployment. A stylized power system setting is used to determine the market equilibrium at different stages of decarbonization, and compared to a conventional energy-only market. Classical ORDCs consistently increase reliability by attracting additional investments. This effect can be amplified by “shifting” the ORDC, increasing the willingness to pay for balancing reserves. Our results suggest that perfect reliability can be achieved with only moderate cost increases.

原文：Thomaßen, G., & Bruckner, T. (2024). Resource Adequacy through Operating Reserve Demand Curves: Design Options and their Impact on the Market Equilibrium. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 125-152. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.gtho

➥

6. 电力短缺与企业预期投资：来自中国制造业中小企业的证据

Dong Cheng, Xunpeng Shi

本文通过分析中国制造业的调查数据，深入探讨了企业对未来短期内预期投资与其对当前电力短缺感知之间的关联。研究结果揭示了两者之间存在显著的负相关性，意味着电力短缺对企业的投资决策产生了持续数月的负面影响。在行业层面，这种影响表现出显著差异，尤其是对那些对电力依赖较重的行业，其受到的冲击更为严重。尽管如此，本研究并未发现充分证据以支持电力依赖性与产能利用率之间存在显著的统计差异。此外，研究还发现，相较于大型企业，规模较小的公司在预期投资方面遭受了更大的损害，这进一步凸显了中小企业在电力短缺问题上需要得到更多关注的重要性。

Using manufacturing survey data from China, we study the relationship between firms’ anticipatory investment (or in other words, willingness to invest) in the short-run future and their perception of the current power crunch for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Our findings reveal a robust and significant negative association, suggesting a sizable persistent negative impact of the power crunch on firms’ investment lingering over at least a couple of months. The dynamic impacts are very different at the industry level, with electricity-dependent industries appearing to take more hits. However, we find no statistically significant evidence to support the channel of electricity dependence in comparison with the channel of capacity utilization. Moreover, we show that firms of smaller size suffer disproportionately larger damage in future investment, which highlights the importance of caring about SMEs, relative to big firms.

原文：Cheng, D., & Shi, X. (2024). The Power Crunch and Firms’ Anticipatory Investment: Evidence from Manufacturing SMEs in China. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 153-176. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.dche

➥

7. 多目标政策对绿色生产率的影响：来自中国化石燃料发电厂的证据

Yu Zhao, Yunning Ma, Yongrok Choi, Ning Zhang

本文构造了非径向的元前沿全球Luenberger生产率指数，该指数解决了技术异质性、松弛变量和线性规划不可行的问题，并从技术视角和因素视角进行了分解。研究使用了2005年至2015年中国发电厂的数据集，识别了"十二五"规划中多目标（包括节能目标和二氧化硫减排目标）对绿色生产率的影响，涵盖了所有影响渠道。具体来说，平均节能目标的1%增长会使绿色生产率累计增加0.50%，而平均二氧化硫减排目标的1%增长会使绿色生产率累计下降0.03%。在所有影响渠道中，技术领先效应和发电效率显示出敏感性。多目标对国有与非国有电厂的不同影响表明，在观察到的生产技术方面存在显著差异。

We propose the non-radial meta-frontier global Luenberger productivity index, which addresses the issues of technology heterogeneity, slack variable, and linear programming infeasibility, and decompose it based on the technology perspective and factor perspective. With the dataset of China’s power plants from 2005 to 2015, we identify the effects of the multi-targets, including energy-saving targets and SO2 reduction targets, in the 12th Five-Year Plan on green productivity encompassing all channels of effects. A 1% increase in the average energy-saving target cumulatively increases green productivity by 0.50%, while a 1% increase in the average SO2 reduction target cumulatively decreases that by 0.03%. In all channels, the technology leadership effect and generation efficiency exhibit sensitivity. Differential effects of the multi-targets on state-owned versus non-stateowned plants imply significant differences in observed production technology.

原文：Zhao, Y., Ma, Y., Choi, Y., & Zhang, N. (2024). The Effects of The Multi-Target Policy on Green Productivity: Evidence from China’s Fossil Fuel Power Plants. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 177-202. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.yzha

➥

8. 政府援助家庭能源账单有什么好处？来自乌克兰的证据

Anna Alberini, Nithin Umapathi

2022年2月24日，俄罗斯联邦军队入侵了乌克兰。乌克兰此前在2014年与俄罗斯发生过战争。2015年4月，乌克兰政府突然提高了对居民用户的天然气关税，并扩大了其能源援助计划（HUS）。本文研究了HUS对福利的影响。利用乌克兰的家庭预算调查数据，研究发现，在关税提高之后，没有获得HUS补贴的普通家庭平均要将其收入的11%用于电力、天然气和燃料，符合“能源贫困”的定义。而那些获得补贴的家庭，这一比例在6%到8%之间。HUS将能源贫困率减少了一半，并且带来了相当大的消费剩余收益（占收入的6%），其代价是GDP的1-2.5%。如果HUS减半，即使在适度的消费剩余损失下，也能实现有意义的节省。用社会关税或一次性能源效率补贴替代HUS将是可持续的，并且会带来适度或无福利损失。

On February 24, 2022, Russian Federation troops invaded Ukraine. Ukraine was previously at war with Russia in 2014, and in April 2015, the government abruptly raised the natural gas tariffs to residential customers. It also scaled up its energy assistance program, the HUS. We examine the welfare effects of the HUS. Using Ukraine’s Household Budget Survey, we find that after the tariff hike, the average household that did not receive the HUS spends 11% of its income on electricity, gas, and fuels, meeting the definition of "fuel poor." The average share among households that do receive the subsidy is 6-8%. The HUS cuts the rate of fuel poverty in half and brings considerable consumer surplus gains (6% of income), at a price tag of 1-2.5% of GDP. Meaningful savings would be achieved with only a moderate loss of consumer surplus if the HUS was cut in half. Social tariffs or replacing the HUS with a one-time energy efficiency subsidy would be sustainable and entail modest or no welfare losses.

原文：Alberini, A., & Umapathi, N. (2024). What Are the Benefits of Government Assistance with Household Energy Bills? Evidence from Ukraine. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 203-230. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.aalb

➥

9. 通过新费率设计解锁灵活的电动汽车充电

Icaro Silvestre Freitas Gomes, Adam F. Abdin, Jakob Puchinger, Yannick Perez

电动汽车（EVs）的广泛普及对电力系统的管理产生了深远的影响。如果未能提供合适的电动汽车定价信号，可能会导致电网基础设施的投资效率低下。为了避免不必要的电网加固成本，并为电动汽车充电提供有效的指导，本文提出了一种方案：允许客户无需安装独立电表即可享受电动汽车专用费率，即所谓的分表计费。这一方案对于电动汽车车主和电网运营商而言，具有相当的吸引力。文章中构建了一个基于博弈论的模型，并将其转化为具有均衡约束的数学程序（MPEC），用以捕捉国家监管机构（NRA）在设计这些费率时与不同代理人之间的互动。该框架适用于多个欧洲国家的监管环境。文章首先探讨了在不同家庭能源使用模式下，电动汽车专用费率在家庭充电中的适用条件。接着，文章分析了电动汽车充电对不同费率结构的影响，旨在找出最高效的网络成本回收方式。研究发现，在实行纯体积费率的情况下，采用分表计费可以为电动汽车用户每年节省64至125美元。最终，文章根据这些发现提出了相应的政策建议。

A high penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will deeply impact the management of electric power systems. The risk of not providing adapted EV pricing signals can lead to inefficient investments in grid infrastructure. To avoid costly grid reinforcements and to ensure proper guidance for EV charging, a solution allowing customers to access EV-only rates without installing a separate meter, which we refer to as submetering, is an attractive option for EV owners and grid operators. We develop a game-theoretical model expressed and treated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) to capture the interaction between a national regulatory authority (NRA) designing these tariffs and heterogeneous agents. This framework represents a stylized regulatory setup applicable to several European countries. First, we analyse the conditions in which EV-only tariffs can be applied for domestic charging by comparing different energy profiles. Second, we study the impact of EV charging on different tariff structures to identify the most efficient way of recovering network costs. We found that the adoption of submetering under a pure volumetric tariff can bring yearly gains varying from $64 to $125 to consumers with EV. Finally, we derive policy implications from the results.

原文：Gomes, I. S. F., Abdin, A. F., Puchinger, J., & Perez, Y. (2024). Unlocking Flexible Electric Vehicle Charging via New Rate Design. The Energy Journal, 45(3), 231-272. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.45.3.igom

分割线

阅读原文，更多关于E3M的信息

图片来源网络，侵删

关于我们

能源经济与环境管理研究室（The Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management，E3M）成立于2017年，是香港地区第一个致力于能源和环境问题经济分析的实验室，探讨了经济、能源和环境之间的相互作用，为全球变化时代下的经济发展制定可持续的智能增长框架铺平道路。

更多信息请见E3M主页：

https://www.cityu.edu.hk/see_eeem/index.html

本期内容：林安岚，香港城市大学博士生

本期内容：唐瑶，香港城市大学博士生（CityU-RUC联培项目）

本期责编&主编：李强，香港城市大学博士生