原文信息:
Evaluating the feasibility of concentrated solar power as a replacement for coal-fired power in China: A comprehensive comparative analysis
原文链接:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261924017793
Highlights
• 提出了一套光热发电和燃煤发电技术多维综合比较分析框架
• 考虑地理、政策和经济等多重因素,评估和比较了中国光热发电和燃煤发电的发展潜力
• 评估了多种混合发电技术的发展潜力,对比分析了光热-光伏联合发电相较于单一光热发电的技术优势
• 基于实际的电站数据验证所提框架的可靠性,并进一步开展了灵敏度性分析
Research gap
目前,光热发电替代传统燃煤发电的可行性仍旧缺乏系统地分析与论证,不利于明晰光热发电在新型电力系统发展中的重要战略定位。本文综合考虑了中国特有的地理、政策和经济环境,从产业与技术发展现状、单一技术发展潜力和混合技术发展潜力等多个角度分析了光热发电技术替代传统燃煤发电的可行性,并针对性地提出了一系列推动光热未来发展的政策建议。
Abstract
Concentrated solar power (CSP) is considered one of the promising emerging clean renewable power generation technologies with the potential to replace coal-fired power (CFP). However, the feasibility of CSP as a replacement for CFP has not been systematically and scientifically analyzed, hindering its positioning and future development, and complicating energy transition decision-making by policymakers. To address this issue, this paper proposes a comprehensive framework to thoroughly compare CSP and CFP from multiple perspectives, including industry and technology development status, as well as single and hybrid technology potentials. This framework considers the comprehensive influences of China's geography, policy, and economy, and analyzes land suitability, technical installed capacity and generation capacity, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) spatial distribution characteristics from geographical, technical, and economic aspects. Comparative results show that, despite CSP having 2.06 million km2 available for construction and a generational potential 7.58 to 18.22 times the current national generation, its economically advantageous and technically feasible areas cover only 237,030 km2 (11.51 % of available land), hindering its widespread adoption as a CFP alternative. To address this, this paper proposes a practical hybrid technology assessment scheme, further comparing promising hybrid CSP-PV and hybrid CFP-Wind systems. Results indicate that hybrid CSP-PV systems increase high-quality regions by 19.79 %, covering 3.5 million km2 with lower LCOE than hybrid CFP-Wind, marking a 226.19 % increase. The economically advantageous and technically feasible areas exceed 585,020 km2, a 146.81 % increase compared to standalone CSP. Overall, the study demonstrates that hybrid CSP-PV systems offer significant economic and technical advantages, making them a competitive option for CFP substitution. However, the costs of standalone CSP systems remain considerably higher than those of CFP generation. To improve the feasibility of CSP as a CFP alternative, this paper provides targeted policy recommendations aimed at advancing CSP industry growth, fostering technological innovation, and enhancing market infrastructure.
Keywords
Concentrated solar power
Coal-fired power
Comparative studies
Techno-economic feasibility
China
Graphics
图1 线性菲涅尔式光热发电系统结构示意图
图2 亚临界燃煤发电系统结构示意图
图3 光热发电与燃煤发电控制系统对比图
图4 光热发电与燃煤发电技术演化过程对比图
图5 地理、技术和经济潜力分析对比流程图
图6 光热发电与燃煤发电地理潜力对比图
图7 光热发电与燃煤发电平准化度电成本对比图
图8 光热发电的经济优势且技术可行区域
图9 光热-光伏联合发电与燃煤-风电联合发电地理潜力对比图
图10 光热-光伏联合发电与燃煤-风电联合发电地理潜力对比分析
表1 光热-光伏联合发电地理潜力评估结果与卫星地图对比验证分析
表2 燃煤-风电联合发电地理潜力评估结果与卫星地图对比验证分析
图11 光热-光伏联合发电技术与燃煤-风电联合发电技术平准化度电成本对比图
图12光热-光伏联合发电的经济优势且技术可行区域
团队介绍
本研究由四川大学电气工程学院电能质量省级重点实验室、澳门大学智慧城市物联网国家重点实验室和国网四川省电力公司的研究人员共同完成。
通信作者简介:
王杨,博士,研究员,入选四川省人才计划,担任四川大学电能质量省级重点实验室常务副主任、四川省电机工程学会城市供用电专委会副主任、IEEE PES 保护控制技术委员会(中国)电网运行控制分委会常务理事、新能源电力系统四川省青年科技创新研究团队核心成员、中国电机工程学会风电可靠性学组核心成员、IEEE-PES Task Force on Harmonics Modeling and Simulation工作组成员。研究方向为电力系统与微电网,包括电力扰动分析与控制、宽频振荡广域监测、溯源与抑制和非线性控制理论在新型电力系统中的应用等。
第一作者简介:
姚凌翔,博士,澳门大学博士后,主要研究方向为电力系统灵活性资源动态建模与控制。在Applied Energy、IEEE Transactions on Power Systems、中国电机工程学报等期刊以第一/通讯作者发表SCI/EI论文8篇,ESI高被引热点论文1篇。
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