原文信息：
Evaluating the flexibility supply and demand reliability of hydro–wind–PV–battery complementary systems under different consumption modes
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261924023560
Highlights
• 基于互补系统日前调度模式构建了不同消纳方式下的灵活性需求优化模型
• 提出了水风光储互补系统灵活性供需可靠性评估方法
• 外送消纳下的灵活性需求平均比本地消纳高33.7%
• 增加当前黄河上游清洁能源基地中的风电比例有利于互补系统的运行
Research gap
针对不同消纳方式下水风光储多能互补系统灵活性供需平衡问题，提出了适用于本地和外送消纳方式的风、光灵活性评估方法，构建了不同消纳方式下灵活性需求优化模型，揭示了风、光灵活性需求与互补系统调峰性能之间的关系。
Abstract
Evaluating the flexibility supply and demand reliability offers a new approach for configuring the capacity of hydro–wind–PV (HWP) or hydro–wind–PV–battery (HWPB) complementary systems. However, traditional flexibility evaluations ignore the operational characteristics of the complementary systems, and tend to underestimate the wind and PV flexibility demand in the case of cross-regional power delivery. To this end, we propose an approach for evaluating the flexibility supply and demand reliability in HWP/HWPB complementary systems under different consumption modes (i.e., external delivery consumption and local consumption). First, a novel flexibility demand optimization model is established by redefining the flexibility demand based on the day-ahead scheduling process of the system. The flexibility supply guaranteed rate of HWP/HWPB complementary systems is then calculated using a statistical model. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified under different wind and PV capacity configuration schemes, and the optimal capacity ratios of wind and PV are determined under different consumption modes. Results using a clean energy base in the upper Yellow River basin indicate that: (1) Stronger peak-shaving performance of the system produces higher wind and PV flexibility demand. On average, the flexibility demand under external delivery consumption is 33.7% higher than that under local consumption. (2) Improving the system’s flexibility can effectively enhance the flexibility supply guaranteed rate when the original guaranteed rate is less than 95%. If the flexibility supply guaranteed rate is greater than 95%, further increasing the flexibility of the system has little effect. (3) For the clean energy base in the upper Yellow River basin, appropriately increasing the proportion of wind power in the current system is beneficial for the operation of complementary systems. Generally, the proposed flexibility evaluation approach provides effective guidance for the planning and management of watershed-type HWP/HWPB complementary energy bases.
Keywords：
Hydro–wind–PV–battery complementary system
Flexibility demand optimization
Flexibility supply guaranteed rate
External delivery consumption
Optimal capacity ratio
Graphics
图1 图形摘要
图2 风、光灵活性需求示意：（a）本地消纳;（b）外送消纳
图3 风、光灵活性需求概率分布拟合：（a）本地消纳;（b）外送消纳
图4 不同容量配置方案下风、光灵活性需求（a）本地消纳;（b）外送消纳
作者介绍
本研究由西安理工大学、国家电投集团黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司以及中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司的研究人员共同完成。
通信作者简介：
明波，西安理工大学教授、博士生导师，入选国家万人计划“青年拔尖人才”（2024）、博士后创新人才支持计划（2020）、陕西省青年科技新星（2023）、陕西省高校优秀青年人才支持计划（2023），现带领团队从事流域水风光一体化调度方面的研究，在国内外权威期刊发表论文90余篇，入选2024年度全球前2％顶尖科学家榜单。
第一作者简介：
郭怿，博士，西安理工大学副教授，从事水文与水资源、电力系统规划与运行及水风光储多能互补领域研究。以第一作者在Applied Energy、Energy Conversion and Management、Journal of Hydrology、电工技术学报等期刊发表学术论文10余篇。
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