【中文为自动翻译，仅供参考，以英文原文为准】

BAKU（2024 年 11 月 24 日）-- 在巴库举行的 COP29 气候谈判结束时，代表们 15 年来首次同意新的气候融资目标。该协议设定了一个目标，即到 2035 年每年至少提供 3000 亿美元，发达国家带头，并鼓励发展中国家自愿捐款。COP 决定还呼吁所有行为体努力将来自所有公共和私人来源的资金扩大到至少 1.3 万亿美元。COP 主席国将领导“巴库到贝伦的 1.3T 路线图”，以朝着这一目标取得进展。

以下是世界资源研究所总裁兼首席执行官 Ani Dasgupta 的声明：

“尽管面临重大阻力，巴库的谈判代表还是达成了一项协议，使流向发展中国家的气候资金至少增加了两倍。3000 亿美元的目标还不够，但这是迈向更安全、更公平的未来的重要首付款。该协议认识到，脆弱国家获得更好的融资渠道，而不会使它们背负不可持续的债务，这是多么重要。它为更广泛的国家做出贡献打开了大门。

“最贫穷和最脆弱的国家有理由感到失望，因为较富裕的国家在数十亿人的生命受到威胁时没有投入更多的资金。据主要经济学家称，到 2035 年 3000 亿美元无法满足发展中国家追求低碳经济和保护其公民免受日益严重的干旱、洪水和野火所需的规模。

“这笔交易让我们摆脱了起跑线。现在，从一系列公共和私人来源筹集更多气候资金的竞赛已经开始，让整个金融体系为发展中国家的转型提供支持。未来一年提供了许多机会来提高气候融资的标准，包括通过国际税收等方式。我们必须抓住他们所有人。

“一些人担心美国大选结果会阻碍 COP29 的进展，但相反，各国团结起来达成了协议。各国都明白，联合国气候谈判是每个国家，无论大小，都能对我们这个时代的最大挑战发表意见的唯一平台。这是一场全球性的、跨代人的斗争——没有一个国家或一次选举会破坏它。

“令人鼓舞的是，几个主要排放国承诺新的国家目标将使他们走上实现净零排放的可靠道路。为了推动实地行动，新的国家承诺必须得到强有力的公共政策的支持，并纳入特定行业的目标，包括迅速摆脱化石燃料的使用和生产。

“艰苦的工作现在开始显示出一条途径，即通过巴库到贝伦路线图，扩大所有资金来源，以实现到 2035 年发展中国家所需的 1.3 万亿美元。对投资即将到来的信心将释放更雄心勃勃的国家气候承诺。这反过来又向投资者发出了一个明确的信号，支持我们需要的行动。

气候融资独立高级别专家组联合主席 Amar Bhattacharya、Vera Songwe 和 Nicholas Stern 发表联合声明：“我们欢迎在阿塞拜疆巴库举行的 COP29 联合国气候变化峰会上就为发展中国家提供金融支持的新集体量化目标达成的协议。重要的是，应立即开始为发展中国家扩大各种来源的外部资金，以实现到 2035 年每年 1.3 万亿美元的目标。发达国家承诺到 2035 年每年主要来自双边和多边公共资金来源 3000 亿美元，这是对当前水平的重要进步，但远低于我们的工作表明，到 2035 年每年至少需要 3900 亿美元来实现《巴黎协定》的目标。重要的是，立即开始着手解决交付的紧迫性、融资的质量和可及性，以及降低资本成本。因此，我们欢迎协议中对交付、监测和透明度的新目标的强调。至关重要的是，必须共同努力，立即开始增加来自各个来源的财政支持，以帮助发展中国家在 2025 年 11 月在巴西贝伦举行的 COP30 联合国气候变化峰会之前提交国家自主贡献中做出更有力的行动承诺。这项财政支持所释放的投资可以推动发展中国家的可持续增长，同时减少排放和降低风险，从而造福全世界。

阿塞拜疆巴库 – “气候危机需要大胆的领导、果断的行动和包容性的流程，而不是犹豫和半途而废。结果远低于发展中国家的预期。重建建立全球气候行动势头所需的信任和参与至关重要。

即将在巴西贝伦举行的 COP30 要求国际社会通过全面的计划和具体步骤为气候行动设定更高的标准，将其付诸行动并应对我们挑战的艰巨性。

这一刻敲响了警钟：在 COP30 和 2030 之间，我们必须从根本上改变我们的经济和社会。在各个方面加快气候行动的需求从未像现在这样紧迫。

- 安吉拉·丘里·卡尔豪格， Impact 执行副总裁，前瑞典适应和复原力问题谈判代表。

EDF 关于气候融资新集体量化目标的声明 

“事实是不可否认的，到 2035 年 3000 亿美元的目标和计划的 1.3 万亿美元路线图并没有解决经济预测所表明的紧迫需求。新的金融框架是气候行动的引擎，但缺乏实现其目标的足够燃料。各国现在必须克服政治障碍并确保资源，特别是支持来年雄心勃勃的气候计划。我们需要采取具体措施，使资金更加公平、可及和负担得起，特别是通过赠款和优惠融资为弱势国家提供资金。当务之急是改革气候融资，以更好地服务发展中国家，最大限度地发挥每一分钱的影响，并加快实施速度。

- Juan Pablo Hoffmaister，全球参与与伙伴关系助理副总裁，前G77发展中国家适应谈判代表

关于第 6 条的声明 

“第 6 条的通过是建立碳市场合作以提高雄心和动员紧急气候资金的历史里程碑。然而，我们需要对第 6.4 条标准进行关键修复，以确保基于自然的解决方案以及保护这些资源的社区不会被边缘化。

第 6.4 条监事会必须正确制定这些标准，这可能需要在 2025 年进一步完善。这些标准必须优先考虑与原住民和当地社区的有力接触。

气候正义和社会保障措施不能是事后才想到的——它们是这些机制成功和公平的基础。

- Pedro Martins Barata，碳市场和私营部门脱碳助理副总裁，葡萄牙碳市场前谈判代表

We Mean Business Coalition 政策董事总经理 Andrew Prag 表示：

“今晚在巴库达成的融资协议还不够，但它提供了一些可以建立的东西。3000 亿美元的数字远低于发展中国家的需求。但巴库的一个明显教训是，多边主义对于在这个真正的全球问题上取得进展至关重要。我们必须共同努力，提升和加强这些多边合作空间，确保它们不能根据一两个国家的立场而被勒索。此外，企业和政府需要开发新的创新合作方式，以支持全球从化石燃料向清洁解决方案的过渡，同时认识到我们所处形势的紧迫性。为了应对气候危机的规模，各国政府现在必须离开巴库，决心与企业合作，加快行动并提供强有力、可实施的国家计划，以推动对清洁能源经济的投资。

“巴库到贝伦路线图”是一项重要的进展，可以预示着将如何扩大公共资金规模，以支持发展中国家的减缓和增强韧性。巴库会议的结果意味着对动员私营部门融资和投资的期望比以往任何时候都大。私营部门已准备好投资于全球能源转型，但这需要通过加强国内政策和有效部署公共气候融资来降低风险溢价，从而改善发展中国家的投资条件。We Mean Business Coalition 和我们的业务合作伙伴期待与巴西合作，在 2025 年迎接这一时刻。

化石燃料和 NDC

“由于遗漏了关于从化石燃料过渡的具体语言，巴库达成的协议错过了发挥领导作用的机会。尽管如此，清洁能源转型的势头现在是不可阻挡的，化石燃料时代已接近尾声。

“各国以清洁能源转型以及保护和恢复自然为中心，制定新的国家自主贡献 （NDC） 势头强劲。英国和巴西在 NDC 方面表现出的领导作用必须激励其他国家在 2025 年初之前敲定与 1.5°C 保持一致的承诺，并制定快速实施的计划。这些国家气候计划为各国提供了一个表明其前进方向的机会，向投资者和企业传递了强烈的信息，并进一步动员了私营部门的投资。在全球运营的企业都明白，极端天气事件、供应链转移和保险成本上升等气候风险都是企业风险。世界上大多数最大的公司都致力于投资清洁技术和解决方案，因为这具有商业意义。到 2035 年，全球关键清洁技术市场将增长两倍，达到 2 万亿美元以上，接近当今原油市场的价值。政府和公司一样，正在寻找用清洁能源取代化石燃料的方法，因为它们的竞争力超过了化石燃料。

尽管活动人士和一些气候谈判代表尽了最大努力，但在巴库举行的 COP29 上达成的关于第 6 条碳市场的协议有可能在世界需要治安官的时候促进牛仔碳市场的发展。

各国政府批准了一揽子令人担忧的碳市场规则，这些规则最终可能会破坏我们控制排放的努力，而不是推进排放。一些国家竭尽全力为第 6.2 条下有缺陷的分散式排放交易框架带来透明度和质量，但所带来的痛苦收效甚微。

“不幸的是，第 6 条的缺陷尚未得到修复，”全球碳市场政策专家 Isa Mulder 说。“各国似乎更愿意采用不充分的规则并在以后处理后果，而不是一开始就阻止这些后果。”

缺乏问责制

如果国家不遵守规则，它们不会面临真正的后果。理论上，碳信用交易的任何“不一致”或不合规都需要得到解决。但是，由于既没有采取行动的最后期限，也没有明确的处罚，各国几乎没有动力不玩弄这个系统。最近的调查揭示了早期第 6.2 条交易中的问题，表明这是一个需要监督的现实问题。

碳市场登记安排最终形成了一个复杂但看似透明的替代系统。发展中国家将不必建立自己的登记册，但关于建立新系统的速度和效果仍然存在问题。

第 6.2 条的最终文本包括一些积极的透明度要求，但仍然存在重大缺陷。一方面，各国在正式批准国际贸易减缓成果 （ITMO） 时有必要发布信息，ITMO是用于国家之间排放交易的单位，供公司等其他参与者使用。重要的是，在各国合作方法中发现的任何不一致之处都将被公开。

另一方面，对于根据联合国 CORSIA 抵消计划购买的航空公司或自愿碳市场下的公司购买的信用额度，详细说明各国正式批准碳信用额度的信息，以及有关贸易协议的其他信息（例如逆转风险和量化的不确定性）可能要等到很晚才能提供。这可能在发行后几年内不会发生，并且最晚在实际使用时发生。

全球碳市场政策负责人乔纳森·克鲁克（Jonathan Crook）表示：“该一揽子计划对透明度条款进行了边际改进，并没有对已经不透明的体系给予足够的关注，在这个体系中，各国不会被要求在实际交易之前就提供有关其交易的信息。“更糟糕的是，在很大程度上错过了加强严重薄弱的审查程序的最后机会。各国仍然可以自由交易低质量的碳信用额度，甚至不遵守第 6.2 条规则，而没有任何真正的监督。

实施第 6.4 条

在 COP 第一天就提前批准了第 6.4 条监管机构关于搬迁和方法要求的规则并引起争议之后，相对于更复杂的第 6.2 条谈判，关于第 6.4 条的讨论退居二线。

尽管有大量证据表明 CDM 存在缺陷，需要额外检查，但要求《京都议定书》中的清洁发展机制 （CDM） 项目过渡到第 6.4 条机制以额外性测试为基础重新评估的尝试最终被拒绝。这意味着，旧的清洁发展机制项目继续可以通过第6.4条机制轻松发放信用额度，以支付2021年至2025年期间实现的减排量，除了东道国的象征性批准外，无需额外的验证。

虽然第 6.4 条监管机构关于方法要求的规则规定了关键原则，例如需要对碳信用额度基线设定进行“向下调整”（减少发放的信用额度），并可能排除锁定依赖化石燃料基础设施的项目，但关于移除和永久性的规则严重缺乏。

从明年初开始，6.4 机制的监督机构将恢复其工作，特别是澄清有关信用的非永久风险的规则。重要的是，巴库的第 6.4 条决定澄清了未来的工作必须以“最佳可用科学”为指导，一个可能的起点是最近的 Nature Communications 研究证实，CO2少于 1,000 年的储存时间不足以中和排放.

“现在很多事情都掌握在监管机构手中，”全球碳市场政策专家费德里卡·多西 （Federica Dossi） 说。“为了表明它已准备好从过去的错误中吸取教训，它必须在明年做出艰难的决定，并确保第 6.4 条的信用额度将明显优于旧的 CDM 项目将产生的单位。如果他们不这样做，他们将不得不在一个低信任度、低诚信度的市场中竞争，在这个市场中，价格可能会处于谷底，兴趣也会很低。这样的系统会分散注意力，浪费 UNFCCC 长达 10 年的碳市场谈判。

外包责任？

巴库案第 6 条的结果创建了一个非常复杂的系统，并且依赖外部利益相关者来发现主要缺陷，因此很难用作高度诚信行动的基础。展望未来，将取决于那些选择参与这些系统的人，以确保这不会阻碍全球气候行动。在缺乏更好的自上而下的监管的情况下，个人行为者的诚信和第三方的积极审查将成为这些市场成败的关键特征。

今天，随着第 6 条的通过，全球气候合作向前迈出了历史性的一步，为各国提供了一个利用独立信贷计划 （ICP） 来支持其气候雄心的新框架。作为领先的标准制定者，Verra 随时准备与各国合作，帮助他们利用这一决定带来的机会，实现有效和可扩展的气候解决方案。Verra 已经开发了协议与新加坡政府和 Gold Standard 合作，支持各国利用第 6 条来实现其国家自主贡献 （NDC）。

各国现在可以加快气候行动，利用经过验证的监测、报告和验证 （MRV） 方法，并动员私营部门资金来达到并超越 NDC。对于许多国家来说，该框架还为高优先级项目提供了一条实用的途径，确保与可持续发展目标保持一致，同时提高气候报告的透明度和严谨性。

Verra 对这一决定感到鼓舞，并相信这将为政府参与既定信贷计划、优化气候融资并产生有意义的影响开辟途径。凭借二十多年通过严格的碳标准支持气候和可持续发展目标的经验，我们了解 ICP 在加快气候进展而不损害国家主权或雄心方面的重要作用。

在未来的旅程中，Verra 致力于为各国提供一流的工具、数据和技术，以跨境扩展气候解决方案。这是对 Verra 使命的有力肯定：为弱势社区推动高度诚信的碳融资，并在最需要的地方产生持久的气候影响。

声明

巴库，布达佩斯，日内瓦，2024 年 11 月 24 日 —— 红十字会与红新月会国际联合会秘书长贾甘·查普雷尔对 COP29 达成协议并结束表示欢迎。

在回应 COP29 巴库气候统一公约时，Chapagain 说：

“新的全球气候融资目标的成功与否将取决于增加的资金是否到达最需要的社区，以及它们是否迅速到达。有效的实施至关重要 - 兑现承诺。巴库协议创造了一条途径，但信任和行动是齐头并进的。

“进一步运作应对损失和损害基金”的进展是向前迈出的可喜一步。但社区现在需要交付和行动”。

在 COP29 之前，红十字会与红新月会国际联合会呼吁决策者优先考虑以下行动：

• 健康与福祉

• 投资于人和社区

• 提前做好灾难准备的时机

健康与福祉：气候危机每天都在影响着人们的身心健康。我们需要做好准备并快速适应人类和环境。

作为对 COP29 协议的响应，全球适应目标取得了可喜的进展。在巴库做出的决定使我们向前迈进了一步，在 COP30 上商定实施阿联酋全球气候适应力框架的指标，其中“健康”是加强适应和复原力工作的七个关键主题目标之一。

投资于人和社区：人们已经承担了气候变化的巨大代价。我们需要默认采取地方主导的气候行动：通过扩大最需要的社区的资金质量、数量和可及性。

作为对 COP29 协议的回应，新的全球气候融资目标同意“到 2035 年，发达国家每年至少带头提供 3000 亿美元”，努力 扩大从公共和私人来源为发展中国家的气候行动提供“至少 1.3 万亿”的资金。这是向 1000 亿目标迈进的一步。但需要尽快采取雄心勃勃的行动并建立信任。

扩大适应融资规模至关重要。我们欢迎在决策文本中认可“本地主导的方法”。处于气候危机前线的社区需要资金来保护他们的生命和生计。

此外，碳市场协议将有助于推进抵消排放的系统和框架。这需要确保制定强有力的规则，尊重并包括当地社区的需求和参与。

提前做好灾难的准备工作：必须提前做更多工作来管理和降低风险，以建立当地适应和早期行动的能力。有效的法律、政策、计划、框架和预先安排的资金，从与早期和预期行动相关的多灾害早期预警系统，可以最大限度地减少损失和损害，保护社区、生态系统和经济。

为响应 COP29 协议，我们欢迎在进一步实施应对损失和损害基金方面取得的进展，并在圣地亚哥网络上采取行动。在未来的日子和几个月里，为处于损失和损害前线的社区和人们建立明确的准入方式以获得急需的支持至关重要。

IFRC 支持世界各地的社区准备、应对和适应极端天气和气候相关灾害。这些危害越来越频繁，越来越严重。需要齐心协力将地球变暖控制在 1.5 摄氏度以下。如果或何时我们跨过这一门槛，人道后果将是可怕的。我们必须期待针对 COP30 采取更雄心勃勃的减缓行动和更新的国家计划 （NDC）。家庭和社区已经在应对气候变化的真正影响——让我们建立团结、信任和真正的紧迫行动。

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【COP29】 第五天的重点是能源与和平；第四天是金融、投资与贸易

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最新发布｜2024年适应差距报告

最新发布｜2024年排放差距报告

【COP28】首次全球盘点的成果

BAKU (November 24, 2024) -- The COP29 climate negotiations in Baku concluded with delegates agreeing to a new climate finance goal for the first time in fifteen years.  The agreement sets a goal to deliver at least $300 billion per year by 2035 with developed countries taking the lead and developing countries encouraged to contribute on a voluntary basis. The COP decision also called on all actors to work toward scaling up financing to at least $1.3 trillion to developing countries from all public and private sources. The COP Presidencies will lead the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T” to make progress towards that aim.

Following is a statement from Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO, World Resources Institute:

“Despite major headwinds, negotiators in Baku eked out a deal that at least triples climate finance flowing to developing countries. The $300 billion goal is not enough, but is an important downpayment toward a safer, more equitable future. The agreement recognizes how critical it is for vulnerable countries to have better access to finance that does not burden them with unsustainable debt. And it opens the door for a broader set of countries to contribute.

“The poorest and most vulnerable nations are rightfully disappointed that wealthier countries didn’t put more money on the table when billions of people’s lives are at stake. According to leading economists, $300 billion by 2035 does not meet the scale of what developing countries need to pursue a low-carbon economy and protect their citizens from mounting droughts, floods, and wildfires. 

“This deal gets us off the starting block. Now the race is on to raise much more climate finance from a range of public and private sources, putting the whole financial system to work behind developing countries’ transitions. The year ahead offers numerous opportunities to raise the bar for climate finance, from development banks, the private sector, major economies and more — including through international taxes. We must seize all of them. 

“Some feared the US election results would stymie progress at COP29, but instead countries came together to seal the deal. Countries understand that UN climate negotiations are the only platform where every nation, big and small, has a voice on the greatest challenge of our time. This is a global and generational fight – no one country or one election is going to derail it.

“It was encouraging that several major emitters promised that new national targets will put them on a credible path to reach net-zero emissions. To drive action on the ground, it’s critical that new national commitments are backed by strong public policies and incorporate sector-specific targets including rapidly shifting away from the use and production of fossil fuels. 

“The hard work now begins to show a route to scaling up all sources of finance to deliver the $1.3 trillion developing countries need by 2035, through the Baku to Belem Roadmap. Greater confidence that investments are coming will unlock more ambitious national climate commitments. This in turn sends a clear signal to investors to back the action we need.”

Joint statement by Amar Bhattacharya, Vera Songwe and Nicholas Stern, Co-Chairs of the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance: “We welcome the agreement at the COP29 United Nations climate change summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, about the new collective quantified goal for financial support for developing countries. It is important that work starts immediately on scaling up external finance from all sources for developing countries towards a target of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. The commitment from developed countries of $300 billion per year by 2035 primarily from bilateral and multilateral sources of public finance is an important advance on current levels, but falls short significantly of the at least $390 billion a year by 2035 which our work shows would be required to deliver the goals of the Paris Agreement. It is important that work starts immediately on the urgency of delivery, the quality of and access to finance, and reducing the cost of capital. Therefore we welcome the emphasis in the agreement on the new goal on delivery, monitoring and transparency. It is crucial to work together to begin ramping up financial support from all sources immediately to assist developing countries in making stronger pledges for action in the national determined contributions that are due to be submitted ahead of the COP30 United Nations climate change summit in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025. The investment unlocked by this financial support can drive sustainable growth in developing countries whilst decreasing emissions and reducing risks to the benefit of the whole world.”

Baku, Azerbaijan – "The climate crisis demands bold leadership, decisive action, and inclusive processes—not hesitation and half-measures. The outcome falls well below the expectations of developing countries. It’s going to be essential to rebuild the trust and engagement required to build global momentum for climate action.  

The upcoming COP30 in Belém, Brazil requires the international community to set higher standards for climate action through comprehensive plans and concrete steps to bring them into action and match the magnitude of our challenge.  

This moment serves as a wake-up call: between COP30 and 2030, we must fundamentally transform our economies and societies. The need to accelerate climate action across all fronts has never been more urgent.” 

- Angela Churie Kallhauge, Executive Vice President, Impact, and former Swedish negotiator on adaptation and resilience issues.

EDF STATEMENT ON THE NEW COLLECTIVE QUANTIFIED GOAL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE 

“The facts are undeniable, the targets of $300 billion by 2035 and the planned $1.3 trillion roadmap don’t address the urgent demands economic forecasts indicate. The new finance framework is an engine for climate action, but lacks sufficient fuel to achieve its goals. Countries must now overcome political barriers and secure resources, particularly to support ambitious climate plans in the coming year. We need specific measures to make funding more equitable, accessible, and affordable—especially for vulnerable nations through grants and concessional financing. The priority must be reforming climate finance to better serve developing countries, maximize the impact of every dollar, and speed up implementation.” 

- Juan Pablo Hoffmaister, Associate Vice President for Global Engagement & Partnerships, and former negotiator on adaptation for G77 developing countries  

STATEMENT ON ARTICLE 6 

“The Adoption of Article 6 is a historic milestone in establishing carbon market cooperation to boost ambition and mobilize urgent climate finance. However, we need critical fixes on Article 6.4 standards to ensure nature-based solutions – and the communities protecting these resources – aren’t sidelined.  

The Article 6.4 Supervisory Board must get these standards right, and that may require further refinements in 2025. These standards must prioritize robust engagement with Indigenous Peoples and local communities. 

Climate justice and social safeguards can't be afterthoughts – they are fundamental to the success and fairness of these mechanisms." 

- Pedro Martins Barata, Associate Vice President for Carbon Markets and Private Sector Decarbonization, and former negotiator for Portugal on carbon markets 

Andrew Prag, Managing Director, Policy, We Mean Business Coalition, said:

“The finance deal agreed in Baku tonight is not enough, but it provides something to build upon. The $300bn figure falls far short of what is needed by developing countries. But one clear lesson from Baku is the vital importance of multilateralism to make progress on this truly global issue. We must work hard together to uplift and strengthen these spaces for multilateral cooperation to ensure they cannot be held to ransom based on the positions of one or two individual countries. Additionally, business and governments need to develop new and innovative ways of working together in support of a global transition from fossil fuels to clean solutions, recognising the urgency of the situation we are in. To meet the scale of the climate crisis, governments must now leave Baku determined to collaborate with business to accelerate action and deliver robust, implementable national plans that drive investment towards clean energy economies.”

The “Baku to Belém Roadmap” is an important development and can signal how public finance will be scaled up to support mitigation and build resilience in developing countries. The Baku outcome means that the expectation for mobilising private sector finance and investment is greater than ever. The private sector is ready to invest in the energy transition globally, but this requires improving investment conditions in developing countries by strengthening domestic policies and effectively deploying public climate finance to reduce risk premiums. The We Mean Business Coalition and our business partners are looking forward to working with Brazil to meet this moment in 2025.”

Fossil fuels and NDCs

“By leaving out specific language on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the deal agreed in Baku missed an opportunity for leadership. Nevertheless, the momentum of the clean energy transition is now unstoppable, and the fossil fuel era is nearing its end.

“There is clear momentum for countries developing new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) centred on clean energy transitions and protecting and restoring nature. The leadership on NDCs displayed by the UK and Brazil must galvanise other nations to finalise 1.5°C-aligned commitments by early 2025, with plans for rapid implementation. These national climate plans offer countries a chance to indicate their direction of travel, delivering a strong message to investors and businesses – and further mobilising private sector investment.“Businesses operating globally understand climate risks —such as extreme weather events, shifting supply chains, and rising insurance costs—are business risks. Most of the world’s largest companies are committed to investing in clean technologies and solutions because it makes business sense. The global market for key clean technologies is set to triple to over $2 trillion by 2035, close to the value of today’s crude oil market. Governments, like companies, are looking at ways to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, because they outcompete fossil fuels.”

Despite the best efforts of activists and some climate negotiators, the agreement reached on Article 6 carbon markets at COP29 in Baku risks facilitating cowboy carbon markets at a time when the world needs a sheriff.

Governments approved a concerning package of carbon market rules that could end up undermining our efforts to rein in emissions rather than advancing them. Some countries fought tooth and nail to bring transparency and quality to the flawed framework for decentralised emissions trading under Article 6.2, with limited gains to show for their pains. 

“The flaws of Article 6 have, unfortunately, not been fixed,” said Isa Mulder, Policy Expert on global carbon markets. “It seems countries were more willing to adopt insufficient rules and deal with the consequences later, rather than prevent those consequences in the first place.”

Accountability absent

Countries face no real repercussions if they fail to abide by the rules. Any “inconsistencies”, or non-compliance of carbon credit deals, need, in theory, to be addressed. But with neither a deadline to take action nor clear penalties, countries have little incentive not to game the system. Recent investigations have revealed problems in early Article 6.2 transactions, showing that this is a real-world problem that requires oversight.

Carbon market registry arrangements culminated in a complex though seemingly transparent alternative system. Developing countries will not have to develop their own registries, but questions remain about how quickly and how effectively the new system will be established.

The final text on Article 6.2 includes some positive transparency requirements, but significant shortcomings remain. On the one hand, it’s necessary for countries to publish information when they formally approve Internationally Traded Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), the units used for emissions trading between countries, for use by other actors, such as companies. And importantly, any inconsistencies identified in countries’ cooperative approaches will be made public. 

On the other hand, the information detailing countries’ formal approval of carbon credits, as well as additional information about trade deals (such as reversal risk and uncertainties in quantification), may not come until very late for credits purchased by airlines under the UN’s CORSIA offsetting scheme or companies under the voluntary carbon market. This may not occur possibly years after issuance, and as late as the moment they are actually used. 

“Offering marginal improvements to transparency provisions, the package does not shine enough light on an already opaque system where countries won’t be required to provide information about their deals well ahead of actual trades,” said Jonathan Crook, policy lead on global carbon markets. “Even worse, the last opportunity to strengthen the critically weak review process was largely missed. Countries remain free to trade carbon credits that are of low quality, or even fail to comply with Article 6.2 rules, without any real oversight.”

Operationalising Article 6.4

Following an early and controversial approval on day one of COP of the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body’s rules on removals and methodological requirements, discussions on Article 6.4 took a back seat relative to the much more complex negotiations on Article 6.2.

Attempts to require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, from the Kyoto Protocol, seeking to transition to the Article 6.4 mechanism to be re-assessed on the basis of additionality tests were ultimately rejected, despite the large body of evidence on shortcomings in the CDM underpinning the need for extra checks. This means that old CDM projects continue to have an easy path towards issuing credits under the Article 6.4 mechanism, for emission reductions achieved between 2021 and 2025, without additional verification other than a somewhat symbolic approval by their host country.

While the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body’s rules on methodological requirements enshrine key principles, such as a required “downward adjustment” to carbon credit baseline-setting (reducing the volume of credits issued) and likely exclusion of projects that lock-in dependence on fossil fuel infrastructure, the rules on removals and permanence are sorely lacking. 

Starting early next year, the Supervisory Body of the 6.4 mechanism will resume its work, in particular to clarify rules around the non-permanence risk of credits. Importantly, the Article 6.4 decision in Baku clarifies that future work must be guided by “best available science”, with one possible starting point being a recent Nature Communications study confirming that a CO2 storage period of less than 1,000 years is insufficient for neutralising emissions.

“Much lies in the hands of the Supervisory Body now,” said Federica Dossi, policy expert on global carbon markets. “To show that it is ready to learn from past mistakes, it will have to take tough decisions next year and ensure that Article 6.4 credits will be markedly better than the units that old CDM projects will generate. If they are not, they will have to compete in a low-trust, low-integrity market where prices are likely to be at rock bottom and interest will be low. Such a system would be a distraction, and a waste of 10-years worth of carbon market negotiations at the UNFCCC.”

Outsourced responsibility?

The Article 6 outcome in Baku creates a system that is so complex and reliant on external stakeholders to spot major shortcomings, that it will be difficult to use as a basis for high-integrity actions. Going forward, it will be up to those who choose to engage in these systems to ensure that this does not sink global climate action. In the absence of better top-down regulation, the integrity of individual actors and active scrutiny from third parties will be make-or-break features of these markets.

Statement

Baku, Budapest, Geneva, 24 November 2024 - The Secretary General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Jagan Chapagain, welcomes agreement and conclusion of COP29.   

Reacting to the COP29 Baku Climate Unity Pact, Chapagain said:  

“The new global climate finance goal's success will be judged by whether increased funds reach the communities that need them most, and by whether they reach them fast. Effective implementation is crucial - delivery on what's been promised. The agreement in Baku creates a pathway, but trust and action go hand in hand.   

 Progress to 'further operationalize the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage' has been a welcome step forward. But communities need delivery and action now”.  

In advance of COP29 IFRC called on decision makers to prioritize action on:   

• Health and wellbeing  

• Investment in people and communities  

• Timing to get ahead of disasters  

Health and wellbeing: Every day the climate crisis is affecting people's physical and mental health. We need to get prepared and adapt fast, for people and the environment.   

In response to the COP29 agreement, welcome progress has been made on the global goal on adaptation. The decision taken in Baku moves us a step forward to agree indicators to operationalize the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience at COP30 of which “health” is one of seven key thematic targets to strengthen adaptation and resilience efforts.  

Investment in people and communities: People are already shouldering the significant cost of climate change. We need locally-led climate action as a default: by scaling up the quality, quantity and access of finance by communities who need it the most.   

In response to the COP29 agreement, the new global climate finance goal agreed “developed countries taking the lead, of at least 300 billion per year by 2035” in efforts to scale up financing to developing countries for climate action of “at least 1.3 trillion” from public and private sources. This is a step forward from the 100 billion target. But ambitious action is needed soon and trust built.   

It is critical adaptation finance is scaled up. We welcome recognition of “locally led approaches” in the decision text. Communities who are on the frontline of the climate crisis need finance to reach them to protect their lives and livelihoods.   

In addition, agreement on carbon markets will help take forward a system and framework for offsetting emissions. This will need to ensure robust rules are in place that respect and include the needs and engagement of local communities.  

Timing to get ahead of disasters: More must be done in advance to manage and reduce risks to build local capacities to adapt and act early. From multi-hazard early warning systems linked to early and anticipatory action, effective laws, policies, plans, frameworks and pre-arranged finance can minimize loss and damage, protect communities, ecosystems and economies.  

In response to the COP29 agreement, we welcome progress made to further operationalize the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage and action on the Santiago Network.  In the days and months ahead, it is critical that clear access modalities are set up for communities and people on the frontline of loss and damage to receive much needed support.  

The IFRC supports communities to prepare for, react and adapt to extreme weather and climate-related hazards all over the world. Those hazards are getting more frequent and worse. A concerted focus is needed to keep the planet below 1.5 degrees of warming. If – or when – we pass this threshold, the humanitarian consequences will be dire. We must look forward to more ambitious mitigation action and updated national plans (NDCs) towards COP30. Families and communities are already dealing with the very real impacts of climate change – let us build solidarity, trust and real urgency of action.