社会信任与风险防范——基于企业债务违约风险的视角
Social Trust and Risk-prevention: From the Perspective of Corporate Default Risk
《财经研究》2024年50卷第11期 页码：34-49 online：2024年11月3日
作者
中：徐寿福 , 李欣婷
英：Xu Shoufu, Li Xinting
作者单位：上海对外经贸大学 金融管理学院，上海 201620
摘要及关键词
摘要：企业风险的形成和集聚是宏观风险的重要来源，探讨企业债务违约风险的缓解机制对于防范化解宏观经济风险具有重要意义。文章在非正式规则治理功能的框架下，探讨了社会信任对企业债务违约风险的影响及其机制。研究发现，以预期违约概率度量的企业债务违约风险与其所在城市的社会信任程度显著负相关，这一结论在经过多种内生性处理和稳健性检验后依然成立。债务融资过程中信息成本、代理成本和资本成本降低，是社会信任抑制企业债务违约风险的重要机制。此外，社会信任对企业债务违约风险的抑制作用在国有上市公司、市场化程度较低的地区以及经济收缩期更加显著。文章的研究不仅丰富了企业债务违约风险影响因素和缓解机制以及社会信任经济后果的相关文献，而且为有效发挥社会信任缓解宏观经济风险的积极作用提供了微观证据和政策启示。
关键词：社会信任；风险防范；债务违约风险；债务融资
Summary: Since the formation and agglomeration of corporate risk is an important source of macro risk, it is of great significance to explore the mitigation mechanism of corporate default risk for preventing and resolving macroeconomic and financial risks. To this end, under the framework of informal institutional governance, this paper studies the impact of social trust on corporate default risk and its economic mechanism. The results show that corporate default risk measured by the expected probability of default is negatively correlated with the level of social trust in the city where an enterprise is located. Further investigation reveals that the reduction in information costs, agency costs, and debt financing costs during the process of corporate debt financing is an important mechanism for social trust to restrain corporate default risk. In addition, the inhibitory effect is more pronounced for state-owned enterprises, in regions with a lower degree of marketization, and during the periods of economic contraction. This paper has the following contributions: First, it adds relevant literature on the driving factors and mitigation mechanisms of corporate default risk from the perspective of informal rules including social trust. Second, it enriches the economic consequences of social trust by examining the “risk-reducing” function from the perspective of corporate default risk. Third, it provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for the government to build a social credit system and create a favorable business environment. The findings have important practical implications: For enterprises, they should abide by the spirit of contract, cultivate faithful culture, and strive to be trustworthy subjects in the process of economic development. At the same time, they have to recognize the impact of social trust on financing decisions and risks, and make full use of its positive role to enhance corporate value. For regulators, they should formulate the implementation rules for the construction of social credit system and utilize modern information technology to increase the construction of system infrastructure. Meanwhile, it is necessary to establish a disciplinary mechanism for breach of trust at the level of system construction and implementation efficiency, increase the punishment, and raise the costs of moral hazard.
Key words: social trust; risk-prevention; default risk; debt financing
其他信息
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20240316.101
收稿日期：2023-09-14
基金项目：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目（21YJA790067）
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