【保险学术前沿】JIR&JRU2024保险精选文章目录与摘要

声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。

期刊介绍：

《Journal of Insurance Regulation》由美国保险监管协会（NAIC）出版发行，是一个专注于保险监管和相关政策领域的学术期刊。每年发表学术论文12篇左右。该期刊主要发表关于保险监管、法规、政策和相关实践的原创研究论文、评论文章和案例研究。它旨在为保险监管领域的研究人员、政策制定者和行业从业者提供一个交流和分享最新研究成果的平台。

《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》为双月刊，每年6期，每期发表文章4篇左右。2022-2023年影响影子为4.7，JCR分区为Q1，是风险与保险领域的顶级权威学术期刊。该期刊以研究不确定性下的风险承担行为和决策分析的理论或实证文章为特色，涵盖的主题包括：决策理论和不确定性经济学、不确定性下的选择心理模型、风险和公共政策、不确定性下的行为实证分析，以及对现实世界风险承担行为的实证研究。

本期看点：

●保险公司特别地将资产集中在金融、公共和房地产部门，并且对公共部门的资产集中度与偿付能力改善相关，而对房地产部门的集中度则削弱了偿付能力。

●麦克休案的判决是加利福尼亚州保险法的一项里程碑式的裁决，它确定了保单失效前的通知要求应适用于当时有效的所有保单，而不仅仅是那些在法律颁布后签发的保单。

●折现率在多个领域中扮演着关键角色，体现了当前与未来之间的权衡，且对预测不健康行为具有重要影响，现有的折现测量方法种类繁多，展示了不同的理论和操作特征。

●一个国家的收入分配与风险偏好存在显著的正向关系，收入不平等的加剧可能会增加承担风险的意愿。

●轮盘赌博决策谜题：轮盘赌博提供多种赌注选择，赌徒常选50%-50%赌注，难以用传统理论解释，预期效用等多种理论无法解释谜题，可能解决途径有考虑选择复杂性和基于错误认知（如赌徒谬误）解释。

●主观信念通常也会影响健康行为，对个人的重大健康冲击，通过改变主观概率，会导致一些更健康的行为，然而，有时只是暂时的。

Fabian Regele（法兰克福大学）;

Helmut Gründl（法兰克福大学）

摘要：Historical evidence, like the global financial crisis from 2007–2009, highlights that sectoral asset concentrations can play an important role in the solvency of insurers. Yet, current regulatory frameworks, such as the U.S. risk-based capital (RBC) framework, neglect sectoral asset concentrations in the determination of capital requirements, potentially underestimating the asset portfolio’s systematic loss exposure and reducing incentives for corresponding risk mitigation. By creating a detailed data sample of U.S. insurers’ asset holdings from 2009 to 2018 by means of their statutory filings, we find that insurers concentrate their assets particularly toward the financial, public, and real estate sector and that sectoral asset concentrations toward the public sector are associated with improved solvency, while concentrations toward the real estate sector weaken solvency. Our findings can serve as a starting point to revise current regulatory practices, particularly in terms of creating proactive incentives for insurers to mitigate the accumulation of systematic risk exposures associated with sectoral asset concentrations.

历史证据（如2007-2009年的全球金融危机）突显了部门资产集中度在保险公司偿付能力中的重要作用。然而，当前的监管框架，如美国的风险资本框架（RBC），在确定资本要求时忽视了部门资产集中度，可能会低估资产组合的系统性损失暴露，并减少相应的风险缓解激励。通过创建2009年至2018年美国保险公司资产持有的详细数据样本，我们发现保险公司特别地将资产集中在金融、公共和房地产部门，并且对公共部门的资产集中度与偿付能力改善相关，而对房地产部门的集中度则削弱了偿付能力。我们的研究结果可以作为修订现行监管做法的出发点，特别是在为保险公司创造积极的激励措施，以减少与部门资产集中相关的系统性风险积累方面。

原文链接：https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/cipr-jir-2024-1.pdf

Brenda P.Wells-Dietel（美国东卡罗来纳大学）， Asligul Erkan-Barlow（美国东卡罗来纳大学），

William Walkowiak（碰撞安全顾问公司）

摘要：This paper discusses the diminished value concept in automobile insurance and examines the variances in state laws regarding first- and third-party diminished value claims. The factors that impact diminished value are identified, including certain intangible factors that cannot be measured or quantified. The existing methods employed for calculating diminished value are presented. In conclusion, insurance providers, regulators, courts, and lawmakers are invited to further consider the topic of interest and make adjustments to improve the predictability of diminished value claims.

本文讨论了汽车保险中的价值减损概念，并分析了各州法律在关于第一方和第三方价值减损索赔方面的差异。文章列举了影响价值减损的因素，包括某些无法测量或量化的无形因素。介绍了现有用于计算价值减损的方法。最后，本文呼吁保险公司、监管机构、法院以及立法者进一步关注这一主题，并进行调整以改善价值减损索赔的可预测性。

原文链接：https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/cipr-jir-2023-5_0.pdf

Lars Powell（阿拉巴马大学），Sebastain Awondo（阿拉巴马大学），Boyi Zhuang（阿拉巴马大学）

摘要：The McHugh decision, a landmark ruling in California’s insurance law, determined that the notice requirements preceding policy lapse were applicable to all policies in effect at the time, not just those written after the law was enacted. As a result, many policy cancellations for nonpayment of premiums can be deemed incomplete, making life insurers potentially liable for death benefits on these lapsed policies. This decision has reshaped the dynamics of the state’s life insurance market. This paper examines the implications of McHugh on California’s life insurance industry by estimating potential costs and liabilities for life insurers. Our findings reveal significant financial costs, with an estimated liability of up to $22.4 billion for life insurers in California. These insights provide valuable guidance for insurers in risk management, product design, and financial planning, and also inform policymakers on regulatory enhancements and market oversight strategies.

麦克休案的判决是加利福尼亚州保险法的一项里程碑式的裁决，它确定了保单失效前的通知要求应适用于当时有效的所有保单，而不仅仅是那些在法律颁布后签发的保单。因此，许多因未支付保费而取消的保单可被视为不完整，使得人寿保险公司可能要对这些失效保单上的死亡给付负责。这一决定重塑了该州人寿保险市场的动态。本文通过估算寿险公司的潜在成本和责任，探讨了麦克休案对加州寿险业的影响。我们的研究结果揭示了巨大的财务成本，估计加利福尼亚州的人寿保险公司将承担高达 224亿美元的责任。这些见解为保险公司的风险管理、产品设计和财务规划提供了宝贵的指导，也为政策制定者提供了加强监管和市场监督策略的信息。

原文链接：https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/cipr-jir-2024-2.pdf

Frank A.Sloan（杜克大学）

摘要：This article reviews economic studies based on data from high income countries published from 2007 to early 2024 to address three questions:(1)How accurate are subjective beliefs, mainly measured by subjective probabilities, compared to their objective counterparts? Objective evidence comes from another source (e.g., life table, empirical study, expert opinion), or subsequent realizations of beliefs elicited at baseline.(2)How are subjective beliefs determined?(3)Do subjective beliefs affect health behaviors? Several domains are included: survival, and health behaviors—smoking, alcohol consumption and impaired driving, preventive care, diet, and COVID-19 precautions. Results on a single domain, (e.g., survival), do not generalize to, e.g., COVID-19 results. Subjective probabilities embody private information (e.g., self-assessed health, parent longevity). However, individuals seem insufficiently informed about population-level probabilities. There is no systematic overestimation or underestimation of objective probabilities. Several determinants of beliefs are identified (demographic characteristics, education, cognition, current self-assessed health, health histories), but evidence on underlying mechanisms is lacking, how determinants, (e.g., education), affect beliefs. Subjective beliefs, even with substantial noise, often affect health behaviors. Given prior evidence that beliefs are influenced by health shocks, this article reviews research on effects of health shocks on health behaviors. A major health shock to an individual—a new diagnosis (e.g., diabetes) or a serious adverse health event (e.g., heart attack), by changing subjective probabilities leads to some healthier behaviors, however, sometimes only temporarily. Behaviors may also be influenced by utility loss following a health shock, e.g., learning about pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of hospitalization.

本文回顾了2007年至2024年初发表的基于高收入国家数据的经济研究，以回答三个问题：(1)主观信念（主要通过主观概率来衡量）与客观相比有多准确？客观证据来自另一个来源（例如，生命表、实证研究、专家意见），或者是基线时引出的信念的后续实现。(2)主观信念是如何确定的？(3)主观信念是否影响健康行为？研究涵盖了多个领域：生存以及健康行为——吸烟、饮酒和酒后驾车、预防性护理、饮食和COVID-19预防措施。单一领域的结果（例如，生存）不能推广到其他领域，例如COVID-19的结果。主观概率包含了私人信息（例如，自我评估的健康状况、父母的寿命）。然而，个人似乎对人口层面的概率了解不足。没有系统地高估或低估客观概率。确定信念的几个因素被识别出来（人口统计特征、教育、认知、当前自我评估的健康状况、健康史），但关于其背后机制的证据不足，例如，教育如何影响信念。即使存在相当大的噪声，主观信念通常也会影响健康行为。鉴于先前的证据表明信念会受到健康冲击的影响，这篇文章回顾了健康冲击对健康行为影响的研究。对个人的重大健康冲击——新的诊断（例如，糖尿病）或严重的不利健康事件（例如，心脏病发作），通过改变主观概率，导致一些更健康的行为，然而，有时只是暂时的。行为也可能受到健康冲击后效用损失的影响，例如，了解到住院的经济和非经济成本。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09435-5

Stefan A.Lipman（鹿特丹伊拉斯谟大学）， Arthur E.Attema（鹿特丹伊拉斯谟大学）

摘要：Discount rates play a pivotal role in various fields, capturing the trade-off between present and future, influencing predictions of unhealthy behaviors. Despite substantial variations in discount rates across studies, methods, and individuals, our goal was to systematically overview diverse methods for measuring discount rates. We conducted a comprehensive literature review across multiple databases, targeting English studies introducing and utilizing discounting measurement methods in human subjects. Two authors screened titles and abstracts, with full text review split between them. Extracted data encompassed bibliographic details, theoretical aspects (e.g., discount function), and operational features (e.g., elicitation procedure). After deduplication, 4976, 218, and 83 records underwent title and abstract screening, full text screening, and inclusion, respectively. A total of 86 unique methods were identified. Predominantly, methods were devised for money (75%) and health (22%) discounting. Network analysis on citations indicated limited cross-disciplinary overlap. Only about one fourth, one third, and one third of methods possessed theoretically desirable traits: i) allowance for negative discount rates, ii) application of multiple discount functions, and iii) correction for non-linear utility of outcomes. Diverse discounting measurement methods exist, showcasing varied theoretical and operational characteristics. These differences may stem from the isolation of development in fields like psychology, experimental economics, and health economics. Our systematic review aids readers in choosing methods aligned with their priorities when measuring discount rates.

折现率在多个领域中扮演着关键角色，体现了当前与未来之间的权衡，且对预测不健康行为具有重要影响。尽管在不同研究、方法和个体之间，折现率存在显著差异，我们的目标是系统地概述用于测量折现率的多种方法。我们通过对多个数据库进行全面文献回顾，重点筛选了在英文研究中介绍和应用折现测量方法的涉及人类受试者的研究。两位作者分别筛选了标题和摘要，全文审阅则由两人共同完成。提取的数据包括书目信息、理论方面（例如折现函数）及操作特征（例如引导程序）。去重后，共有4976篇、218篇和83篇记录分别经过标题和摘要筛选、全文筛选和最终纳入分析。最终识别出86种独特的测量方法。大部分方法被用于货币（75%）和健康（22%）折现。对引用文献的网络分析表明，不同学科之间的交叉重合较少。约四分之一、三分之一和三分之一的方法具备理论上理想的特征：i）允许负折现率，ii）应用多种折现函数，iii）修正结果的非线性效用。现有的折现测量方法种类繁多，展示了不同的理论和操作特征。这些差异可能源于心理学、实验经济学和健康经济学等领域的独立发展。我们的系统性综述旨在帮助读者在测量折现率时，能够根据自身的优先考虑选择合适的方法。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09439-1

Harry Pickard(纽卡斯尔大学),Thomas Dohmen(波恩大学), Bert Van Landeghem(谢菲尔德大学)

摘要：This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and risk taking. Increased income inequality is likely to enlarge the scope for upward comparisons and, in the presence of reference-dependent preferences, to increase willingness to take risks. Using a globally representative data set on risk preference in 76 countries, we empirically document that the distribution of income in a country has a positive and significant link with the preference for risk. This relationship is remarkably precise and holds across countries and individuals, as well as alternate measures of inequality. We find evidence of a steeper gradient between willingness to take risks and inequality for cognitively more able individuals who likely have a better assessment of inequality and for those who are dissatisfied with their income. We present results in favour of our mechanism, which suggests that falling behind one’s reference group increases the appetite for risk taking.

本文研究了收入不平等与承担风险之间的关系。收入不平等的加剧可能会扩大向上比较的范围，并且在存在参照依赖偏好的情况下，增加承担风险的意愿。本文使用76个国家/地区具有全球代表性的风险偏好数据集，凭经验证明一个国家的收入分配与风险偏好存在显着的正向关系。这种关系非常精确，并且适用于不同国家和个人，也适用于不同的不平等衡量标准。我们发现证据表明，对于认知能力更强的人（可能对不平等有更好的评估）和那些对自己的收入不满意的人来说，冒险意愿与不平等之间存在更陡的梯度。我们提出的结果支持我们的机制，这表明落后于参照组会增加冒险的欲望。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09440-8

Pavlo Blavatskyy（蒙彼利埃高等商学院）

摘要：Standard casino games such as roulette offer (almost) symmetric 50%-50% bets in a menu with numerous positively skewed gambles (with equal expected value). It is challenging to rationalize the popularity of casino gambling with traditional risk preferences. Yet, it is even more challenging to explain a more specific point that gamblers often choose (almost) symmetric 50%-50% gambles when casino offers positively skewed gambles. In this paper, we demonstrate that many well-known theories of decision making under risk cannot explain the finding that people place (almost) symmetric 50%-50% bets in roulette gambling. An expected utility maximizer either does not gamble on roulette at all (when utility function is concave or linear) or prefers to gamble on the longest possible shot and avoids (almost) symmetric 50%-50% bets (when utility function is sufficiently convex). Similarly, in Yaari’s dual model, a decision maker either does not gamble on roulette (when probability weighting function is convex or linear) or gambles on the longest possible shot avoiding (almost) symmetric 50%-50% bets (when probability weighting function is sufficiently concave in the neighborhood of zero probability). In Viscusi’s prospective reference theory, it can be optimal to gamble on several roulette numbers (rather than on one number) but not on one half of roulette numbers. A gambler who maximizes prospect theory never places a single bet on one half of roulette numbers due to the assumption of loss aversion.

标准的赌场游戏，如轮盘赌，在众多正偏态赌注（具有相同期望值）的菜单中提供了（几乎）对称的50%-50%赌注。用传统的风险偏好来解释赌场赌博的流行是具有挑战性的。然而，解释一个更具体的点则更具挑战性：当赌场提供正偏态赌注时，赌徒们往往选择（几乎）对称的50%-50%赌注。在本文中，我们证明了许多著名的风险决策理论无法解释人们在轮盘赌中下注（几乎）对称的50%-50%赌注的现象。一个期望效用最大化者要么根本不在轮盘赌上下注（当效用函数为凹函数或线性时），要么倾向于在最多赔率的赌注上下注，并避免（几乎）对称的50%-50%赌注（当效用函数足够凸时）。同样，在Yaari的对偶模型中，决策者要么不在轮盘赌上下注（当概率加权函数为凸函数或线性时），要么在最多赔率的赌注上下注，避免（几乎）对称的50%-50%赌注（当概率加权函数在零概率附近足够凹时）。在Viscusi的前景偏好理论中，最优选择可能是在多个轮盘数字上下注（而不是在一个数字上），而不是在轮盘的一半数字上下注。根据前景理论的最大化假设，由于损失厌恶的假设，赌徒永远不会在轮盘的一半数字上下注。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09438-2

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