【保险学术前沿】JEEA 2022-2024年保险精选文章目录与摘要

声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。

期刊介绍：

《Journal Of The European Economic Association》（《欧洲经济协会会刊》）是一本专注于经济学领域的学术期刊，创刊于2003年，由Wiley-Blackwell出版，自2023年起由牛津大学出版社出版。该刊发文范围涵盖经济学的所有领域，包括宏观经济学、微观经济学、计量经济学和金融等，旨在及时、准确、全面地报道国内外经济学工作者在该领域的科学研究等工作中取得的经验、科研成果、技术革新、学术动态等。该刊每年出版6期，每期10篇左右，2023年影响因子为3.9。

本期看点：

年金与养老金：

●利率风险显著推高了美国年金市场的溢价，尤其在全球金融危机后，利率风险对年金价格附加的贡献急剧增加，新退休人员转移长寿风险的机会不太可能得到改善。

●基于意大利养老金改革发现，当家庭可以调整退休决策时，公共养老金财富和私人储蓄之间的抵消作用会减弱，且养老金改革的具有重要的分配效应。

●基于一项德国养老金补贴计划研究发现，额外养老金福利每月福利增加100欧元，会促使女性领取者提前六个月申领养老金，且她们还会调整劳动力供给，将失业保险作为过渡手段以提前退休，并减少从事边缘性工作的时间。

医疗保险制度：

●不平等的医疗保险范围对健康和寿命差距的产生作用微乎其微，终生收入、偏好和健康冲击的差异是造成预期寿命差异的主要决定因素。

●全民医疗保险会增加预防性医疗支出，但不会促进健康活动，这是因为医疗保险范围的增加，个体不再担忧因高额治疗性医疗支出冲击而产生的经济负担。

●瑞士的强制性医疗保险制度下，联邦改革迫使各州将现金转移改为实物转移（保险费补贴）后，逾期缴纳保费的可能性以及政府对长期未缴保费进行追债的可能性均降低，且无证据表明对医疗服务的自付账单产生负面溢出效应。

●以福利最大化为目标的所得税制度比美国现行的所得税制度要更具累进性，更高的税收累进性水平提供了额外的再分配和社会保险，特别是对那些难以获得医疗保险的健康状况不佳的低收入个体。

长期护理：

●在一项基于美国老年人的调查中，近一半的受访者对痴呆症和长期护理的概率持有不精确的预期，而近三分之一的精确概率受访者对其报告进行了四舍五入；且受访者最初倾向于高估小概率事件，而低估大概率事件。

Stéphane Verani(美国联邦储备委员会), Pei Cheng Yu(新南威尔士大学)

摘要：We show that the supply of U.S. life annuities is constrained by interest rate risk. We identify this effect using annuity prices offered by life insurers from 1989 to 2019 and exogenous variations in contract-level regulatory capital requirements. The cost of interest rate risk management-conditional on the effect of adverse selection—accounts for about half of annuity markups, or 8 percentage points. The contribution of interest rate risk to annuity markups sharply increased after the Global Financial Crisis, suggesting new retirees’ opportunities to transfer their longevity risk are unlikely to improve in a persistently low interest rate environment.

我们的研究表明，美国生存年金的供应受到利率风险的限制。我们利用1989年至2019年寿险公司提供的年金价格以及合同层面监管资本要求的外生变化来确定这种影响。利率风险管理成本（在考虑到逆向选择效应的前提下）约占年金价格附加的一半，即8个百分点。全球金融危机后，利率风险对年金价格附加的贡献急剧增加，这表明在持续低利率环境下，新退休人员转移长寿风险的机会不太可能改善。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article-abstract/22/4/1981/7603377?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Panos Margaris（康考迪亚大学）, Johanna Wallenius（斯德哥尔摩经济学院）

摘要：In this paper, we develop a life cycle model that features pecuniary and non-pecuniary investments in health in order to rationalize the socioeconomic gradients in health and life expectancy in the United States. Agents accumulate health capital, which affects labor productivity, utility, the distribution of medical spending shocks, and life expectancy. We find that unequal health insurance coverage plays a negligible role in generating the observed gaps in health and longevity. Universal health insurance increases preventive medical spending but not time spent in health promoting activities, as individuals are no longer worried about avoiding high curative medical expenditure shocks due to increased health insurance coverage. Our findings suggest that differences in lifetime income, preferences, and health shocks are the main determinants of inequality in life expectancy.

本文我们建立了一个生命周期模型，该模型引入了健康领域的货币性投资和非货币性投资，来合理解释美国在健康和预期寿命方面的社会经济梯度。代理人积累的健康资本会影响劳动生产率、效用、医疗支出冲击的分布以及预期寿命。我们发现，不平等的医疗保险范围对健康和寿命差距的产生作用微乎其微。全民医疗保险会增加预防性医疗支出，但不会促进健康活动，这是因为医疗保险范围的增加，个体不再担忧因高额治疗性医疗支出冲击而产生的经济负担。我们的研究结果表明，终生收入、偏好和健康冲击的差异是造成预期寿命差异的主要决定因素。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/22/3/1097/7236864

Claudio Daminato（隆德大学）, Mario Padula（威尼斯大学）

摘要：To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.

为了评估养老金改革的生命周期福利效应，我们提供了一个储蓄、投资组合选择和退休的动态随机模型，该模型具有养老金制度的丰富特征。基于意大利一系列养老金改革的外生变化，我们识别并估计了该模型，然后利用该模型得出替代养老金政策的影响。经验证的模型预测了社会保障养老金财富对退休的重大影响，当家庭可以调整退休决策时，公共养老金财富和私人储蓄之间的抵消作用会减弱。我们进一步发现养老金改革的重要分配效应，家庭福利在他们面临改革的工作生涯后期下降得更多。我们的研究结果对养老金政策的设计及其可能产生的支持具有启示意义。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/22/1/355/7260851

Juergen Jung（美国陶森大学经济系），Chung Tran（澳大利亚国立大学经济研究学院）

摘要：We study the optimal progressivity of personal income taxes in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model where individuals are exposed to idiosyncratic shocks to labor productivity and health status over the lifecycle. Our results—based on a calibration to the US economy—indicate that both, the presence of health risk and the available insurance institutions, have a strong effect on the optimal level of tax progressivity. Given the fragmented and non-universal health insurance system in the US, a welfare maximizing income tax system is substantially more progressive than the current US income tax. The higher progressivity provides additional redistribution and social insurance, especially for unhealthy low income individuals who have limited access to health insurance. When exposure to health risk is removed or reduced by introducing more comprehensive health insurance systems, we observe large decreases in the optimal level of income tax progressivity, and the optimal tax system resembles findings from the previous literature. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the unique characteristics of health risk and the design of the health insurance system when characterizing optimal income taxes.

我们研究了一个一般均衡的代际重叠模型中个人所得税的最优累进性。在该模型中，个体在其生命周期内面临劳动生产率和健康状况的特质性冲击。基于对美国经济的校准，我们的结果表明，健康风险的存在和现有的保险制度对最优税收累进性水平有显著影响。鉴于美国分散且非全民化的医疗保险体系，一个以福利最大化为目标的所得税制度比美国现行的所得税制度要更具累进性。这种更高的累进性提供了额外的再分配和社会保险，特别是对那些难以获得医疗保险的健康状况不佳的低收入个体。当通过引入更全面的医疗保险体系来消除或减少健康风险时，我们观察到最优所得税累进性水平大幅下降，且最优税收制度与以往文献中的发现相似。这些发现强调了在确定最优所得税时，考虑健康风险的独特特征和医疗保险体系设计的重要性。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/21/5/2043/7036764

Maristella Botticini（意大利博科尼大学经济系和 IGIER（博科尼大学经济与金融研究中心）；欧洲经济政策研究中心（CEPR））, Pietro Buri（美国普林斯顿大学经济系）, Massimo Marinacci（意大利博科尼大学决策科学系，AXA-博科尼风险研究讲席教授）

摘要：Maritime insurance developed in medieval Europe is the ancestor of all forms of insurance that appeared subsequently. We address the question of why modern insurance was first invented in medieval Europe, and neither earlier nor elsewhere. Drawing from insights from the literature on uncertainty aversion, we show that medieval merchants had to bear more frequently natural risks (they traveled longer distances) and new human risks with unknown probabilities (they faced unpredictable attacks by corsairs due to increased political fragmentation and commercial competition in Europe). The increased demand for protection in medieval seaborne trade met the supply of protection by a small group of wealthy merchants with a broad information network who could pool risks and profit from selling protection through a novel business device: the insurance contract. A new market—the market for insurance—was then born. Next, analyzing more than 7,000 insurance contracts redacted by notaries and about 100 court proceedings housed in the archives of Barcelona, Florence, Genoa, Palermo, Prato, and Venice, we study the main features of medieval trade, the type of risks faced by merchants, and the characteristics of insurance contracts and markets from 1340 to 1500.The empirical analysis delivers two main findings. First, risks related to human activities (e.g., attacks by corsairs) seem to have had a relatively greater impact on insurance premia compared to natural risks (proxied by seasonal risks). Second, distance mattered but the route seems to have had a greater impact on insurance premia. Specific routes (e.g., in the Tyrrhenian and the western Mediterranean) were more plagued by human risks, which were harder to avoid for the majority of merchants who did not have a broad information network compared to the few wealthy merchants, who became the key players in selling insurance in the early stages of the development of insurance markets.

起源于中世纪欧洲的海上保险是所有后续出现的保险形式的鼻祖。我们探讨了为什么现代保险首次在中世纪欧洲诞生，而不是更早或在其他地方。借鉴对不确定性厌恶的研究，我们发现，中世纪商人频繁面临自然风险（因为他们长途跋涉）和新的人为风险（由于欧洲政治分裂和商业竞争加剧，他们面临海盗攻击的不可预测性）。中世纪海上贸易中对风险保护的需求增加，与一小群拥有广泛信息网络的富裕商人提供的保护供应相契合，这些商人能够通过一种新的商业工具——保险合同，来分担风险并从中获利。于是，一个新的市场——保险市场——应运而生。通过分析巴塞罗那、佛罗伦萨、热那亚、巴勒莫、普拉托和威尼斯档案馆保存的7000多份保险合同和约100份法庭诉讼记录，我们研究了1340年至1500年间中世纪贸易的主要特点、商人面临的风险类型以及保险合同和市场的特征。实证分析得出两个主要发现：首先，人为风险（如海盗攻击）对保险费的影响似乎大于自然风险（通过季节性风险来衡量）；其次，距离虽然重要，但路线对保险费的影响更大。特定路线（如第勒尼安海和西地中海）更容易受到人为风险的困扰，这些风险对于大多数没有广泛信息网络的商人来说更难规避，而少数富有商人则成为保险市场发展初期的关键参与者。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/21/6/2287/7319353

Christian P R Schmid（CSS实证卫生经济学研究所和伯尔尼大学），Nicolas Schreiner（CSS实证卫生经济学研究所和巴塞尔大学），Alois Stutzer（巴塞尔大学）

摘要：How should payment systems of means-tested benefits be designed to improve the financial situation of needy recipients most effectively? We study this question in the context of mandatory health insurance in Switzerland, where recipients initially receive either a cash transfer or subsidized insurance premiums (a form of in-kind transfer). A federal reform in 2014 forced cantons (i.e. states) to universally switch to in-kind provision. We exploit this setting based on a difference-in-differences design, analyzing eight years of rich individual-level accounting data and applying a machine learning approach to identify cash recipients prior to the reform. We find that switching from cash to in-kind transfers persistently reduces the likelihood of late premium payments by about 20% and of government debt collection for long-term missed payments by approximately 12%. There is no evidence for a negative spillover effect on the timely payment of the non-subsidized co-pay bills for health services after the regime change.

如何设计资产测查补助（means-tested benefits）的支付系统，才能最有效地改善贫困受助人的经济状况？我们以瑞士的强制医疗保险为背景对这一问题进行了研究，在强制医疗保险中，受助人最初要么获得现金转移，要么获得保险费补贴（实物转移的一种形式）。2014年的联邦改革迫使各州（即州政府）普遍转为提供实物。我们利用这一背景，基于双重差分（difference-in-differences）设计，分析了八年丰富的个体级别的会计数据，并应用机器学习方法来识别改革前的现金领取者。我们发现，从现金转移到实物转移的这一改变，持续地使逾期缴纳保费的可能性降低约20%，使政府对长期未缴保费进行追债的可能性降低约12%。没有证据表明，制度改革后对及时支付医疗服务的非补贴自付账单产生了负面溢出效应。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/20/5/1829/6545803

Pamela Giustinelli（博科尼大学）, Charles F Manski（西北大学）, Francesca Molinari（康奈尔大学）

摘要：We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term-care (LTC) outcomes in the US Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish important patterns regarding imprecision of subjective probabilities. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Imprecise-probability respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia and LTC probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. These proportions decrease substantially when LTC expectations are conditioned on hypothetical knowledge of the dementia state. Among rounding and imprecise-probability respondents, our elicitation yields two measures: an initial rounded or approximated response and a post-probe response, which we interpret as the respondent's true point or interval probability. We study the mapping between the two measures and find that respondents initially tend to over-report small probabilities and under-report large probabilities. Using a specific framework for study of LTC insurance choice with uncertain dementia state, we illustrate the dangers of ignoring imprecise or rounded probabilities for modeling and prediction of insurance demand.

我们在美国健康与退休研究（Health and Retirement Study,HRS）中调查了晚发性痴呆症和长期护理（Long-Term Care,LTC）结果的数值预期。我们首次提供了关于美国无痴呆症的老年人对痴呆风险认知的实证证据，并建立了有关主观概率不精确性的重要模式。我们的调查区分了精确概率和不精确概率，同时考虑了报告的四舍五入问题。不精确概率的受访者使用概率区间来量化不精确性。近一半的受访者对痴呆症和长期护理的概率持有不精确的预期，而近三分之一的精确概率受访者对其报告进行了四舍五入。当长期护理预期基于假设性的痴呆状态知识进行调整时，这些比例显著下降。在四舍五入和不精确概率的受访者中，我们的调查产生了两个指标：初始的四舍五入或近似响应，以及后续询问后的响应，我们将其解释为受访者的真实点概率或区间概率。我们研究了这两个指标之间的映射关系，并发现受访者最初倾向于高估小概率事件，而低估大概率事件。通过一个特定的研究框架，用于研究在痴呆状态不确定情况下的长期护理保险选择，我们展示了在建模和预测保险需求时忽略不精确或四舍五入概率的危险。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article/20/1/187/6291194

Han Ye（曼海姆大学）

摘要：I estimate the effect of additional pension benefits on women’s retirement decisions by examining a German pension subsidy program. The subsidies have a kinked relationship with the recipients’ past pension contributions, creating a sharply different slope of benefits for similar women on either side of the kink point. I find that a 100 euro increase in the monthly benefit induces female recipients to claim their pensions six months earlier. Recipients also adjust their labor supply by using unemployment insurance as a stepping stone to retirement and by reducing the time spent in marginal employment. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the ratio of behavioral to mechanical costs for this subsidy program is 0.25, which is smaller than that of many other income support programs.

本文通过研究一项德国养老金补贴计划，评估了额外养老金福利对女性退休决策的影响。该补贴与领取者过去的养老金缴款存在非线性关系，在临界点两侧，情况相似的女性所获福利的变化斜率截然不同。本文发现，每月福利增加100欧元，会促使女性领取者提前六个月申领养老金。领取者还会调整劳动力供给，将失业保险作为过渡手段以提前退休，并减少从事边缘性工作的时间。粗略估算表明，该补贴计划中行为成本与机械成本之比为0.25，低于许多其他收入支持计划。

原文链接：https://academic.oup.com/jeea/article-abstract/20/3/1048/6420244?redirectedFrom=fulltext

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