——做专业的科技财经媒体！
据海关总署统计，2023年“新三样”出口合计1.06万亿元人民币，首次突破万亿大关，增长29.9%，出口占比为4.8%，代表我国高技术、高附加值、引领绿色转型的产品成为出口新引擎。
随着制造业高端化、技术化以及中国新能源产业链的崛起，光伏产品、锂电池、新能源汽车已成为中国出口“新三样”。据海关总署统计，2023年“新三样”出口合计1.06万亿元人民币，首次突破万亿大关，增长29.9%，出口占比为4.8%，代表我国高技术、高附加值、引领绿色转型的产品成为出口新引擎。
美国对光伏产品加征关税保护本土产业链，中企冲入美国本土腹地建厂竞争
近日美国贸易代表办公室的新闻稿说，一些关税将于9月27日生效。除了对中国电动汽车加征100%的关税以外，美国还将对中国太阳能电池加征50%的关税，对中国钢铁、铝、电动汽车电池和关键矿物加征25%的关税。
同时，美国将中国半导体的进口关税提高50%，此新税率将于2025年1月开始生效。半导体这一项里新增了太阳能电池板使用的多晶硅和硅晶圆两个类别。
从历史上看，美国对华启动“301”调查后，中国光伏产品出口美国受到反倾销税、反补贴税、201关税和301关税等多重限制，导致我国本土生产的光伏产品出口美国的数量、金额极低。美国针对中国光伏的贸易限制，从最初的下游电池、组件，到301关税限制中国逆变器和辅材、涉疆法案中又剥离了中国硅料、东南亚四国反规避调查剥离中国硅片和辅材，全方位打压中国光伏输美产品。
据伍德麦肯兹（WoodMackenzie）统计，2023年美国80%的组件都来自东南亚。然而，东南亚反规避豁免预计将于今年六月份结束，中国企业在东南亚产能出口美国恐将受到影响。此外，4月24日，美国多家本土光伏公司向美国商务部和美国国际贸易委员会（ITC）提交申请，要求对原产于柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国、越南的电池片发起反倾销和反补贴调查。通常情况下，ITC在申请拿到后会在45天内作出初裁，如果裁定损害成立的话，东南亚光伏企业恐怕都要面临新的风险。
今年以来，美国取消了对东南亚进口光伏组件的关税减免，并对原产于东南亚四国的光伏电池片和组件发起双反调查，导致一些企业在东南亚的光伏制造产能关停。
据美国国际贸易管理局披露的数据，目前柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国和越南这四个东南亚国家所谓的倾销税率分别为125.37%、81.22%、70.36%、271.28%。
在扶持本土产业方面，美国则通过《通胀削减法》和《基础设施投资与就业法》等法案，向其本土光伏产业提供大规模涉嫌违反多边规则的补贴。同时，美国能源部太阳能技术办公室每年设立资助计划，为光伏研发和示范项目提供直接资助。此外，美国各州和地方层面也出台了众多补贴措施以支持光伏产业的发展。据美国光伏协会SEIA统计，2023年宣布新建和扩产的工厂数量达到了51个，总产能高达155GW，总计投资超过1000亿美元。
其中在美国市场上，2024年第一季度，美国本土已投产的组件产能累计达21GW，其中包括阿特斯于2023年底投产的5GW组件工厂，和晶科能源位于佛罗里达州的400MW组件工厂。中国企业占美国组件环节产能约25.7%，其余多为美国本土、加拿大和韩国企业。
尽管近两年拜登政府通过提高关税和大力补贴本土光伏制造业来限制中国光伏组件的进口，但这些举措似乎并未能阻挡中国企业的步伐。相反，它们刺激了中国光伏企业转向美国本土设厂的新策略。
美国的电池片产能目前仍为空白。在相关美国政策的扶持下，电池片的产能规划方面，共12家企业宣布将在美建立工厂，到2027年产能预计将达到38.8GW。这12家企业当中，除了美国、加拿大、印度、韩国等国家的企业外，中资企业阿特斯也在其中，产能规划排在全美市场的第二位。
阿特斯公告显示，公司在美国的5GW电池项目预计将于2025年底就能建成投产，占据了美国电池片产能规划的约13%，也就是接近七分之一。而第一名是收购了SunPower位于俄勒冈州工厂的美国本土企业ConvaltEnergy，已经将生产设备迁移至其纽约州总部。到2025年第一季度，该公司预计将建成一个集硅棒、硅片、电池片和组件于一体的10GW生产基地，是产能排在第二的阿特斯的两倍。
除电池片外，其它光伏制造环节中，还有6家中国光伏企业（含控股的外资子公司）在美投建产能项目，包括行业巨头天合光能、隆基绿能和晶科能源。隆基绿能与美国清洁能源开发商Invenergy签约在美国俄亥俄州建设一处5GW光伏组件厂，计划到今年年底运营8条生产线。晶科能源追加了5000万美元，对其位于佛罗里达州的光伏组件工厂进行扩产。
中国光伏企业对于美国市场的热情主要是市场的毛利率很高，在国内基本上是成本价竞争市场的情况下，美国市场的部分产品毛利率高达50%以上，如美国市场182mm、210mm尺寸的单晶PERC组件和单晶TopCon组件仍然保持在0.25美元/W（折合人民币1.80元/W）、0.30美元/W（折合人民币2.17元/W），而国内组件均价早已跌至1元/W以下。远高于全球市场的毛利率，吸引着中国光伏企业不断通过各种渠道和运营方式向美国市场出口光伏产品。
根据中国电机产品进出口商会统计，2023年，美国自东南亚国家的光伏组件进口额为125.1亿美元，占总进口额的82.7%。
中国光伏出口现状
实际上，从整体产品出口来看，中国企业在美国市场上的比例并不高，据海关数据显示，美国并不是中国光伏的直接出口地。
但是从具体代表性国家来看，荷兰贸易额占比最高主要是其强大的转口贸易潜力。作为光伏产品销往欧洲的转运站，很大程度上反应了欧洲光伏市场景气度变化。在欧美、印度、巴西等主要出口地区相继颁布针对光伏产品的贸易制裁法案后，以巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯为代表的新兴市场正在成为中国光伏出口的新驱动。
中国国内上游产能过剩、全产业链打起了“价格战”等问题，让中国光伏企业不得不把出口作为了企业生存下来的重要举措。
2020年到2023年新增装机平均年增速超过70%，累计装机翻了14倍；在海外，我国光伏产品出口继续领跑全球，产能出海也掀起风潮，光伏组件在全球的市占率在75%以上，硅片、电池则超过80%。而中国光伏企业也开始了从“中国造，全球卖”进一步向“全球造、全球卖”发展。
中国光伏布局海外
2023年光伏产品出口方面，中国光伏厂商的硅片出口70.3GW，电池片出口39.3GW，组件出口211.7GW，而整个海外新增装机约227GW。国际能源署数据显示，中国光伏产品的全球市场占有率已超过80%。
随着全球光伏市场的快速扩张，供应链韧性和对中国依赖的担忧也在欧美各国中逐渐升温。为了构建本土光伏制造业，各国纷纷出台政策支持，而中国光伏企业也在海外积极布局，从“产品走出去”到“产能走出去”，寻求新的增长点。
据统计，截至2024年第一季度末，北美、欧洲、东南亚三个区域已投产的组件产能已达到159.4GW，到2027年预计将达到273GW。其中，中国企业在海外已投产的组件产能约为55.4GW，占比约34.7%，而其余多为美国、欧洲、东南亚和其他区域的本土企业。这意味着未来在全球市场上，中国企业也将面临其他国家企业的激烈竞争。
从光伏产业链产能来看，东南亚无疑是中国以外最大的光伏生产区域，其中东南亚是美国光伏的重要供应地。
截至2024年第一季度，东南亚光伏组件总产能已达到93.2GW，电池片产能为69.6GW，硅片产能为34.2GW，多晶硅产能为8.2万吨。其中，中国光伏企业在东南亚的产能占据显著地位，组件产能总计约50GW，占比高达53.6%。此外，电池片产能约45GW，硅片产能约27GW。多家中国光伏企业如晶科能源、天合光能、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、阿特斯、中盛光电等已在东南亚建立了硅片、电池、组件的一体化产能。
特别是中国光伏产品从中国大陆直接出口美国本土的途径被阻断后，中国光伏企业很快将东南亚打造成“中转站”，一些前瞻性的企业早于2016年前后便在东南亚投资建厂。当美国贸易保护主义对中国光伏产品不断加码后，东南亚也在短时间之内被塑造为中国光伏全球供应链的重要一环。
因此距中国较近、人文环境相近、投资成本低、供应链便利性较高的东南亚，在2023年已经成为美国光伏产品主要的进口来源地。从目前的产能布局来看，海外企业在东南亚的产能主要还是集中在组件和电池方面，而硅片产能则仍然以中国企业为主导，此外，中资的石英砂、光伏玻璃、逆变器等中国辅材、设备企业也在该区域有业务布局。
从产能的地理布局来看，越南在东南亚地区的光伏产业中占据了主导地位，其组件产能达到了54.8GW，电池片产能为36.45GW，硅片产能为18.5GW，形成了较为完整的产业链布局。其他国家产能相对越南较小，马来西亚组件产能为15.6GW，印尼8.5GW，泰国7.25GW，柬埔寨6.4GW。在电池片产能方面，马来西亚表现较为突出，其产能达到了16.5GW。泰国和印尼的电池片产能分别为7.65GW和6GW，而柬埔寨的产能为3GW。
但东南亚已经成为除了中国之外，中国光伏企业海外垂直一体化产能的典型样本，像晶科能源、天合光能、隆基绿能等中国光伏龙头企业目前均已完成在东南亚“硅片+电池+组件”的一体化生产基地布局。
由于整个东盟的光伏规划，东盟成员国2025年35%可再生装机能源的目标，光伏装机预计只新增11GW至12GW左右，因此东盟的光伏产能大部分只充当“中转站”的角色，中国光伏企业在东南亚部分国家的产能在今年5月真正面临“抉择”，中国光伏企业在美国商务部国际贸易委员会（USITC）通过了对上述东南亚四国光伏产品反倾销、反补贴调查后，“借道”东南亚四国出口美国市场的计划基本受阻。
目前中国光伏企业在东盟的产能布局已经难逃两个命运，一是关停，产能各方目前正在与东盟各国协商进行进一步评估；二是评估市场竞争情况，考虑是否将东南亚产能留作‘备份’，以应对向全球其它市场转移产能时，要应对的地缘冲突与市场竞争环境不断变化的风险。
在今年5月美国针对中国光伏产品进行政策封堵后，中国相关部门和企业均对参与中东的新能源转型建设，而基于对新能源发展趋势判断，正在推动相关政策落地的中东市场，也对中国的光伏技术与产能有着十分浓厚的兴趣，在中国光伏企业密切访问中东市场寻找机会的同时，中东市场的一些主要经济体也迅速前往中国内地考察各个目标企业的光伏产品与技术，为引进这些技术与产能做准备。
市场观察人士分析认为，仅在“沙特2030愿景”推动下，中东市场的光伏项目就有望迎来广阔的市场空间。InfoLinkConsulting统计数据显示，2023年沙特市场规模预计为22GW至23GW，而到2024年则有望攀升至39GW。而具备成本、技术、供应等多方面优势的中国光伏企业自然成为沙特的重要合作伙伴。
也就是在中东新能源市场的政策吸引下，协鑫科技、中信博、天合光能等公司与中东一些国家表达了合作建厂意愿，特别是今年7月，包括晶科能源、阳光电源、TCL中环、钧达股份等中资头部光伏企业，都相继官宣在沙特斩获大单或是联合投资的消息。
中国现实版本的流浪光伏
中国的光伏产业主要是在加入WTO后才得到较大的发展。当时亚洲金融风暴产生的影响席卷全球，导致当时对高能耗、大投资、变现时间长的光伏行业在欧美和东亚资本圈被迫放弃投资，全球的光伏产业进入到发展停滞状态。
这期间中国由于加入了WTO，以较低的能源成本、人力成本、土地使用成本等，加上WTO关税优惠的预期，吸引了部分欧美和东亚的光伏人才和资本进入到中国发展，几乎把光伏的完整产业链技术给引进并吸收，为中国光伏产业发展打下了较好的技术与人才基础。
2008年全球金融危机后，中国推出的经济刺激政策，对新能源光伏行业的发展产生了巨大的促进作用，在苹果等国际巨头的新材料应用推动，以及在中国的产能纷纷采购绿电的引导与推动下，中国光伏产业也受益蓝宝石、钻石等超硬材料的产能落地与技术外溢，迅速解决了成本难题，整个光伏行业出现了空前的繁荣，从技术到量产工艺不断进行快速迭代，日渐成熟。
而中国光伏产业的产能重心，也从传统的长三角，内迁到土地成本、能源成本更低的内地以及西北地区，青海、新疆、宁夏、内蒙等地，成为中国光伏的主要产能基地。同时中国光伏产能的爆发，也成为了全球最大的产能基地，在不断的产能扩张下，行业分析认为中国的光伏产能在2023年底，将超出全球实际需求产能的150%以上，产能过剩十分严重。
中国光伏产能的绝对过剩，也意味着中国光伏产品只能在全球市场上进行产能与价格竞争才能生存下来。这期间随着国外市场开始对中国的低成本、低价光伏产品进行反补贴、反倾销调查，中国光伏企业也经历了建海外仓，到海外组装，再到海外生产的全过程。
不过，旭日大数据在为中资企业出海提供咨询时发现，中国光伏企业的产能迁移，应该避免掉此前的同质产能扎堆、产业链重复建设、企业间各自为战的混乱状态，如何发挥各个企业在产业链中的核心优势，形成中资企业的抱团军团，以真正的中国制造优势来获得收益，在回馈中国社会、投资者的同时，实现全球普惠光伏才有现实意义。
同时光伏做为新能源产业的重要组成部分，也是各大经济体执政者重点管制的领域，中资光伏企业在产能迁移过程中，如何在尊重当地政策、法规、民俗的情况下，把产能制造与产能收益也融入当地社会实现共赢，成为真正发展当地经济的助力，获得当地民众的普遍支持，也是中资光伏企业需要关注的重心。
中国光伏企业的产能，还在陆续从中国的西北往海外迁移，除了前期的东南亚外，目前中东市场、巴基斯坦等依赖提高能源税收来保财政的“南南”市场，都成了中国光伏产能的下一个战场。
这也意味一场新的中国流浪光伏大戏，即将上演。
China's realistic version of stray photovoltaics is rushing left and right in the global new energy war
Editor:Lucien
With the high-end and technological transformation of the manufacturing industry and the rise of China's new energy industry chain, photovoltaic products, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles have become the "new three" of China's exports. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in 2023, the total export of the "new three" will be 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking through the trillion mark for the first time, an increase of 29.9%, and the proportion of exports will be 4.8%, representing China's high-tech, high value-added, and green transformation products have become a new export engine.
United States imposing tariffs on photovoltaic products to protect the local industrial chain, Chinese enterprises rushed into the hinterland of United States to build factories
A recent press release from the Office of the United States Trade Representative said that some tariffs will go into effect on Sept. 27. In addition to the 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the United States will also impose 50% tariffs on Chinese solar cells and 25% tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries and critical minerals.
At the same time, the United States increased import tariffs on Chinese semiconductors by 50%, and this new rate will take effect in January 2025. Semiconductors have been added to the category of polysilicon and silicon wafers used in solar panels.
Historically, after the launch of the "301" investigation by United States China, China's photovoltaic product export United States was subject to multiple restrictions such as anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties, 201 tariffs and 301 tariffs, resulting in a very low number and amount of export United States of China's locally produced photovoltaic products. United States' trade restrictions on China's photovoltaics, from the initial downstream cells and modules, to the 301 tariff restrictions on China's inverters and auxiliary materials, the stripping of Chinese silicon materials in the Xinjiang-related bill, and the stripping of Chinese silicon wafers and auxiliary materials by the anti-circumvention investigation of four Southeast Asian countries, comprehensively suppressing China's photovoltaic products exported to the United States.
According to Wood Mackenzie, 80% of United States modules in 2023 will come from Southeast Asia. However, the anti-circumvention exemption in Southeast Asia is expected to end in June this year, and the United States of Chinese companies exporting production capacity in Southeast Asia may be affected. In addition, on April 24, a number of domestic PV companies in United States submitted applications to the United States Department of Commerce and the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) to initiate anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations against cells originating in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam. Normally, the ITC will make a preliminary ruling within 45 days after the application is obtained, and if the damage is found, Southeast Asian PV companies may face new risks.
Since the beginning of this year, the United States has canceled tariff reductions and exemptions for imported photovoltaic modules from Southeast Asia, and launched a double-dumping investigation on photovoltaic cells and modules originating in four Southeast Asian countries, resulting in the shutdown of photovoltaic manufacturing capacity of some enterprises in Southeast Asia.
According to the data disclosed by the United States International Trade Administration, the so-called dumping duty rates of Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam are currently 125.37%, 81.22%, 70.36% and 271.28% respectively.
In terms of supporting local industries, the United States has passed bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to provide large-scale subsidies to its domestic PV industry suspected of violating multilateral rules. At the same time, the United States Department of Energy's Office of Solar Technology establishes an annual funding program to provide direct funding for photovoltaic R&D and demonstration projects. In addition, numerous subsidies have been introduced at the state and local levels in the United States to support the development of the photovoltaic industry. According to the United States Photovoltaic Association (SEIA), the number of new plants announced and expanded production in 2023 reached 51, with a total capacity of up to 155GW and a total investment of more than $100 billion.
In the United States market, in the first quarter of 2024, a total of 21GW of module capacity has been put into operation in the United States, including Canadian Solar's 5GW module factory in late 2023 and JinkoSolar's 400MW module factory in Florida. Chinese companies account for about 25.7% of United States' module production capacity, while the rest are mostly United States, Canada and Korea companies.
Although the Biden administration has restricted China's PV module imports in the past two years by raising tariffs and heavily subsidizing local PV manufacturing, these measures do not seem to have stopped Chinese companies. Instead, they have spurred Chinese PV companies to turn to new strategies for setting up factories in the United States.
Cell production capacity in the United States is still blank. With the support of relevant United States policies, a total of 12 companies announced that they will build factories in the United States, and the production capacity is expected to reach 38.8GW by 2027. Among these 12 companies, in addition to enterprises from United States, Canada, India, Korea and other countries, Canadian Solar, a Chinese-funded company, is also among them, and its production capacity planning ranks second in the U.S. market.
Canadian Solar's announcement shows that the company's 5GW cell project in the United States is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025, accounting for about 13% of the United States cell production capacity plan, that is, nearly one-seventh. First of all, Convalt Energy, a local United States company that acquired SunPower's Oregon plant, has moved production equipment to its New York State headquarters. By the first quarter of 2025, the company expects to build a 10GW production base of silicon ingots, wafers, cells and modules, which is twice the capacity of Canadian Solar, which ranks second.
In addition to cells, six other PV companies (including foreign-owned subsidiaries with a controlling stake) are investing in capacity projects in the United States, including industry giants Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar。LONGi Green Energy has signed a contract with Invenergy, a clean energy developer in United States, to build a 5GW PV module plant in Ohio, United States, and plans to operate eight production lines by the end of this year. JinkoSolar has added an additional $50 million to expand production at its PV module plant in Florida.
The enthusiasm of Chinese PV companies for the United States market is mainly due to the high gross profit margin of the market, and the gross profit margin of some products in the United States market is as high as more than 50% in the case of basically cost-price competition in the domestic market, such as 182mm and 210mm monocrystalline PERC modules and monocrystalline in the United States marketTopCon modules remain at US$0.25/W (RMB1.80/W) and US$0.30/W (RMB2.17/W), while the average price of modules in China has long since fallen below RMB1/W. The gross profit margin is much higher than that of the global market, attracting Chinese photovoltaic companies to continuously export photovoltaic products to the United States market through various channels and operation methods.
According to the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Motor Products, in 2023, the import value of photovoltaic modules from Southeast Asian countries in United States will be 12.51 billion US dollars, accounting for 82.7% of the total import.
The current situation of China's photovoltaic exports
In fact, from the perspective of overall product exports, the proportion of Chinese enterprises in the United States market is not high, according to customs data, United States is not a direct export destination for Chinese photovoltaics.
However, in terms of specific representative countries, the highest proportion of trade turnover in the Netherlands is mainly due to its strong entrepot trade potential. As a transfer station for photovoltaic products to be sold to Europe, it largely reflects the changes in the prosperity of the European photovoltaic market. After major export regions such as Europe, America, India and Brazil have successively issued trade sanctions against photovoltaic products, emerging markets represented by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are becoming new drivers of China's photovoltaic exports.
Problems such as overcapacity in China's domestic upstream and a "price war" in the entire industry chain have forced Chinese PV companies to take exports as an important measure for their survival.
From 2020 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of new installed capacity will exceed 70%, and the cumulative installed capacity will increase by 14 times; Overseas, China's photovoltaic product exports continue to lead the world, and production capacity has also set off a trend overseas, with the global market share of photovoltaic modules exceeding 75%, and silicon wafers and cells exceeding 80%. Chinese photovoltaic companies have also begun to further develop from "Made in China, Sold Globally" to "Made Globally, Sold Globally".
China's PV layout overseas
In terms of PV product exports in 2023, Chinese PV manufacturers exported 70.3GW of silicon wafers, 39.3GW of cells, and 211.7GW of modules, while about 227GW of new overseas capacity was added. According to the International Energy Agency, China's global market share of photovoltaic products has exceeded 80%.
With the rapid expansion of the global PV market, supply chain resilience and concerns about dependence on China are also heating up in Europe and the United States. In order to build a local photovoltaic manufacturing industry, countries have introduced policy support, and Chinese photovoltaic companies are also actively deploying overseas, from "product going out" to "production capacity going out", seeking new growth points.
According to statistics, by the end of the first quarter of 2024, the module production capacity in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia has reached 159.4GW, and it is expected to reach 273GW by 2027. Among them, Chinese companies have about 55.4GW of module production capacity overseas, accounting for about 34.7%, while the rest are mostly local companies in United States, Europe, Southeast Asia and other regions. This means that in the future, Chinese companies will also face fierce competition from companies from other countries in the global market.
From the perspective of photovoltaic industry chain capacity, Southeast Asia is undoubtedly the largest photovoltaic production area outside China, of which Southeast Asia is an important supplier of United States photovoltaics.
As of the first quarter of 2024, Southeast Asia's total PV module production capacity has reached 93.2GW, with 69.6GW of cells, 34.2GW of wafers and 82,000 tonnes of polysilicon. Among them, Chinese PV companies occupy a significant position in Southeast Asia's production capacity, with a total module production capacity of about 50GW, accounting for 53.6%. In addition, the cell production capacity is about 45GW and the wafer production capacity is about 27GW. A number of Chinese PV companies, such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, and Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, have established integrated production capacity of wafers, cells, and modules in Southeast Asia.
In particular, after the direct export of Chinese photovoltaic products from Chinese mainland to the United States was blocked, Chinese photovoltaic companies quickly turned Southeast Asia into a "transit station", and some forward-looking enterprises invested and built factories in Southeast Asia as early as around 2016. When United States' trade protectionism continues to increase China's photovoltaic products, Southeast Asia has also been shaped into an important part of China's global photovoltaic supply chain in a short period of time.
Therefore, Southeast Asia, which is close to China, has a similar cultural environment, low investment costs, and high supply chain convenience, has become the main source of imports for United States photovoltaic products in 2023. From the perspective of the current production capacity layout, the production capacity of overseas enterprises in Southeast Asia is mainly concentrated in modules and cells, while the production capacity of silicon wafers is still dominated by Chinese enterprises.
From the perspective of geographical layout of production capacity, Viet Nam occupies a dominant position in the photovoltaic industry in Southeast Asia, with its module production capacity reaching 54.8GW, cell production capacity of 36.45GW, and silicon wafer production capacity of 18.5GW, forming a relatively complete industrial chain layout. Other countries have smaller capacity than Viet Nam, with 15.6GW of module capacity in Malaysia, 8.5GW in Indonesia, 7.25GW in Thailand and 6.4GW in Cambodia. In terms of cell production capacity, Malaysia has performed more prominently, with a production capacity of 16.5GW. Thailand and Indonesia have cell production capacity of 7.65GW and 6GW respectively, while Cambodia has 3GW.
However, Southeast Asia has become a typical example of the overseas vertically integrated production capacity of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in addition to China, such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy and other leading Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have completed the layout of "silicon wafer + cell + module" integrated production bases in Southeast Asia.
Due to the photovoltaic planning of the entire ASEAN, the goal of 35% renewable installed energy in ASEAN member countries in 2025, the installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to only add about 11GW to 12GW, so most of ASEAN's photovoltaic production capacity only plays the role of "transit station", and the production capacity of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in some Southeast Asian countries is really facing a "choice" in May this year. After the International Trade Commission (USITC) of the United States Department of Commerce passed the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation of photovoltaic products from the four Southeast Asian countries, the plan to export to the United States market through the four Southeast Asian countries was basically blocked.
At present, the production capacity layout of China's photovoltaic enterprises in ASEAN has been unable to escape two fates, one is to shut down, and the production capacity parties are currently negotiating with ASEAN countries for further evaluation; The second is to assess market competition and consider whether to keep Southeast Asian production capacity as a 'backup' to deal with the risks of geopolitical conflicts and changing market competition environments when transferring production capacity to other global markets.
After the United States policy blockade of Chinese photovoltaic products in May this year, China's relevant departments and enterprises are interested in participating in the new energy transformation and construction of the Middle East, and based on the judgment of the new energy development trend, the Middle East market, which is promoting the implementation of relevant policies, also has a very strong interest in China's photovoltaic technology and production capacity. Some major economies in the Middle East market have also quickly traveled to Chinese mainland to inspect the PV products and technologies of various target companies in preparation for the introduction of these technologies and production capacities.
Market observers believe that only driven by the "Saudi Vision 2030", photovoltaic projects in the Middle East market are expected to usher in a broad market space. According to InfoLinkConsulting statistics, the Saudi market is expected to grow from 22GW to 23GW in 2023 and is expected to climb to 39GW by 2024. Chinese PV companies with advantages in cost, technology, supply and other aspects have naturally become important partners of Saudi Arabia.
That is, under the policy attraction of the new energy market in the Middle East, GCL Technology, Arctech, Trina Solar and other companies have expressed their willingness to cooperate with some countries in the Middle East to build factories, especially in July this year, including Jinko Solar, Sungrow, TCL Zhonghuan, Junda and other Chinese-funded head photovoltaic companies, have successively announced the news of winning large orders or joint investment in Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese version of the wandering PV
China's photovoltaic industry has only developed greatly after joining the WTO. At that time, the impact of the Asian financial turmoil swept the world, resulting in the photovoltaic industry with high energy consumption, large investment and long realization time in Europe, the United States and East Asia capital circles were forced to abandon investment, and the global photovoltaic industry entered a state of stagnation.
During this period, due to China's accession to the WTO, with low energy costs, labor costs, land use costs, etc., coupled with the expectation of WTO tariff preferences, it has attracted some talents and capital from Europe, the United States and East Asia to enter China's development, almost the complete industrial chain technology of photovoltaic has been introduced and absorbed, and a good technology and talent foundation has been laid for the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
After the global financial crisis in 2008, China's economic stimulus policy has played a huge role in promoting the development of the new energy photovoltaic industry, in the Apple and other international giants of the application of new materials, as well as China's production capacity has purchased green electricity under the guidance and promotion, China's photovoltaic industry has also benefited from the production capacity of sapphire, diamond and other superhard materials and technology spillover, quickly solved the cost problem, the entire photovoltaic industry has seen unprecedented prosperity, from technology to mass production process continues to carry out rapid iteration, increasingly mature.
The production capacity focus of China's photovoltaic industry has also moved from the traditional Yangtze River Delta to the mainland and northwest China, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places with lower land and energy costs, becoming the main production capacity base of China's photovoltaic industry. At the same time, the outbreak of China's photovoltaic production capacity has also become the world's largest production capacity base, and under the continuous expansion of production capacity, industry analysis believes that China's photovoltaic production capacity will exceed the actual global demand capacity by more than 150% by the end of 2023, and the overcapacity is very serious.
The absolute overcapacity of China's photovoltaic products also means that China's photovoltaic products can only survive through capacity and price competition in the global market. During this period, as foreign markets began to carry out anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations on China's low-cost and low-cost photovoltaic products, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises also experienced the whole process of building overseas warehouses, overseas assembly, and then overseas production.
However, when providing consulting for Chinese-funded enterprises to go overseas, Glorious Sun Big Data found that the capacity migration of China's photovoltaic enterprises should avoid the previous homogeneous production capacity, repeated construction of the industrial chain, and the chaotic state of fighting for each enterprise.
At the same time, as an important part of the new energy industry, it is also an area that the rulers of major economies focus on, and how to integrate capacity manufacturing and capacity income into the local society to achieve a win-win situation in the process of capacity migration, how to respect local policies, regulations, and folk customs, and become a real help for the development of the local economy, and obtain the general support of the local people, which is also the focus of attention of Chinese-funded photovoltaic enterprises.
In addition to Southeast Asia in the early stage, the Middle East market, Pakistan and other "south-south" markets that rely on raising energy taxes to protect finances have become the next battlefield of China's photovoltaic production capacity.
This also means that a new Chinese wandering photovoltaic drama is about to be staged.
