The Trump campaign fires a barrage of negative advertisements
It could well work
它非常的奏效
2024年9月05日 09:06 上午 |宾夕法尼亚州约翰斯敦
THE PRESIDENTIAL race has been upended over the past two months, but a Donald Trump rally is still a Donald Trump rally. Thousands of supporters flocked to see him at a recent one in southwest Pennsylvania. As usual, vendors sold a variety of ever-evolving merchandise to satisfy all sorts of MAGA fans. (“If you’re not wearing a Trump hat, you might get mistaken for a Democrat,” one winking seller warned.) A breakdancer with a Trump mask performed for those standing in a line that stretched around a corner and up a hill. Attendees either mocked or ignored the handful of anti-Trump protesters outside. And Mr Trump was very much himself, bragging to delighted fans about how he had mastered “the weave”. He explained: “I’ll talk about like nine different things, and they all come back brilliantly together, and it’s like, friends of mine that are, like, English professors, they say, ‘It’s the most brilliant thing I’ve ever seen.’”
过去两个月的总统竞选真是大变样，但特朗普的集会还是老样子。最近在宾夕法尼亚州西南部，成千上万的支持者聚在一起看他。像往常一样，小贩们卖着各种新奇商品，满足不同“MAGA”粉丝的需求。（“如果你没戴特朗普帽子，可能会被当成民主党人，”一位卖家开玩笑说。）还有个戴着特朗普面具的人在排队的人群中跳霹雳舞。参加活动的人要么嘲笑外面的反特朗普抗议者，要么根本不理他们。而特朗普则依旧自信满满，对兴奋的粉丝夸耀自己如何掌握了“编织”的技巧。他说：“我可以聊九个不同的话题，它们都能巧妙地结合起来，我那些英语教授朋友都说，‘这是我见过最棒的东西！’”
Mr Trump left the Republican National Convention in July a clear front- runner against Joe Biden. The emergence of Kamala Harris reset the contest. Mr Trump initially appeared off when grappling with his new opponent, but as the campaign reaches its final phase, his advisers and allies have established a clear strategy. They are betting heavily on attack ads that paint Ms Harris as an out-of-touch leftist who is soft on crime and immigration. One goal is to persuade voters that Ms Harris—who wants the election to be a referendum on her rival—should be held accountable as the number two official in a “weak and pathetic administration”.
特朗普在7月份的共和党全国代表大会上被认为是和乔·拜登竞争的明显领先者。不过，卡玛拉·哈里斯的出现改变了局面。刚开始面对这个新对手时，特朗普有点不知所措，但现在竞选进入最后阶段，他的团队已经制定了一套明确的策略。他们重金投放攻击广告，把哈里斯描绘成一个与现实脱节、对犯罪和移民态度软弱的左翼人士。他们想让选民相信，哈里斯希望把这次选举变成对她对手的公投，所以作为“软弱无***此负责。
The approach may be working: Mr Biden’s winning coalition from 2020 had fallen apart during his re-election bid, and Ms Harris has only partially rebuilt it, despite the progress she has made in the polls in a short time. Her support among those under 30 has fallen 12 points below what Mr Biden earned in 2020, according to Wall Street Journal polling. She lags ten points with black voters and Hispanic support has dropped six points. These gaps could be decisive given that Mr Biden won the presidency four years ago by a margin of just 44,000 votes in three swing states.
这种策略似乎有效：拜登在2020年的胜利联盟在他连任的竞选中已经散架了，虽然哈里斯最近的民调支持有所上升，但她只部分重建了这个联盟。根据《华尔街日报》的调查，她在30岁以下人群中的支持率比拜登2020年时低了12个百分点。在黑人选民中，她落后10个百分点，而拉美裔的支持也下降了6个百分点。考虑到拜登四年前仅以4万张票的微弱优势赢得三个摇摆州，这些差距可能会变得非常关键。
Currently 53% of Americans view Mr Trump unfavourably, according to FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit. This mattered less when Mr Trump was running against Mr Biden, who voters disliked even more. But Ms Harris now earns favourable ratings from 46% of Americans, almost the same share who view her unfavourably. With Mr Trump’s numbers seemingly immovable it will be hard for him to win unless he brings down Ms Harris, as he did in his contest against Hillary Clinton.
根据FiveThirtyEight的数据，现在53%的美国人对特朗普的看法不好。这在他和不受欢迎的拜登竞争时没那么重要。不过，哈里斯现在也只有46%的好评率，差不多跟她的负面评价持平。考虑到特朗普的支持率似乎很难动摇，如果他不能像对付希拉里那样把哈里斯搞下去，他想赢得大选就会很困难。
The campaign and allied groups are investing heavily in this strategy. In the week leading up to the Trump rally in Johnstown, 57% of television spending came from the Trump campaign and allied super PACs. All of it was attack ads against Ms Harris, according to AdImpact, a media-tracking firm. The Harris campaign and its allies advertised less during that period and took a less negative approach. Less than a fifth of the ads for Ms Harris were devoted solely to attacking Mr Trump; the rest promoted Ms Harris or compared her favourably with Mr Trump.
这次竞选和相关团体在这个策略上花了不少钱。根据媒体追踪公司AdImpact的数据，在特朗普在约翰斯顿举行集会的前一周，57%的电视广告支出都是来自他的竞选团队和超级政治行动委员会（super PAC），而这些广告全都是攻击哈里斯的。不过，哈里斯的团队那段时间投放得比较少，而且态度也不那么激烈。针对特朗普的广告不到五分之一，其余的大多是在宣传哈里斯或者把她跟特朗普做正面比较。
Boating weather
适合划船的天气
Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump campaign adviser, certainly knows how to drag down an opponent. During the 2004 presidential race the longtime Republican operative and Marine Corps veteran played a key role in Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. The political advocacy organisation turned the military service of John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, into a liability with a series of ads questioning his record during the Vietnam war. Mr Kerry had been leading George Bush over the summer but saw his lead erode as the ads aired.
特朗普的高级顾问克里斯·拉奇维塔（Chris LaCivita）真会打击对手。在2004年的总统选举中，这位资深共和党操盘手和海军陆战队退伍军人，在“真相之舟”（Swift Boat Veterans for Truth）组织中发挥了关键作用。这个政治团体通过一系列广告质疑民主党候选人约翰·克里（John Kerry）在越南战争期间的表现，把他的军事经历变成了一个负担。当时，克里夏天还领先乔治·布什，但随着这些广告播出，他的优势就开始缩水了。
The evidence about campaign-ad effectiveness is mixed, but researchers at Northwestern University have found that negative ads suppress voting more than positive ads encourage it. Mr Trump’s negative spots about Ms Harris concentrate on immigration and crime. One lists several illegal migrants who were arrested for committing violent crimes and then set free: “Who released every one of them? Liberal DA Kamala Harris. The victims’ blood is on her hands.” Another warns that Ms Harris wants to provide “amnesty for the 10m illegals she allowed in as border tsar”, which eventually “will lead to cuts in your Social Security benefits”. No one has ever accused Mr Trump of subtlety. Yet the relentless negativity is making Trump fans nervous. “I do wish he would stick to the policy more than the name calling,” said Doug Feathers, a 46-year-old from Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania. “I don’t disagree with his name calling. I do enjoy the entertainment. But stick to the policy for the voters out there that are still undecided.”
关于竞选广告的效果，大家看法不一，但西北大学的研究发现，负面广告比正面广告更容易让人不去投票。特朗普针对哈里斯的负面广告主要讲移民和犯罪。有个广告列举了几名因暴力犯罪被捕但又被放走的非法移民，并说：“是谁放他们出去的？自由派检察官卡玛拉·哈里斯。受害者的鲜血都在她手上。”另一个则警告说，哈里斯想给“她允许进入的1000万非法移民提供赦免”，这最终会导致你的社会保障福利减少。没人指望特朗普会很含蓄。不过，这种不断地打击让他的支持者有点紧张。“我真希望他能多谈政策，而不是人身攻击，”来自宾夕法尼亚州霍利代斯格罗夫46岁的道格·费瑟斯说。“我并不反对他的人身攻击，我觉得挺有意思。但对于那些还没决定投票的人，他应该更多地关注政策。”
While Mr Trump outspent Ms Harris in the final week of August, she has committed several times as much to advertising in the final days of the campaign. The Harris campaign currently has committed $52.4m compared with $14.1m by Team Trump for the week of October 22nd. And so far Mr Trump only leads in total spending in Georgia. Democrats have committed more money in every other swing state. Having invested early on in ads that promote Ms Harris’s biography and her youthful summer job at McDonalds, Democratic strategists may yet decide to match Mr Trump’s brutal attacks as election day nears.
虽然特朗普在8月最后一周花的钱比哈里斯多，但她在竞选的最后几天投入了好几倍于他的广告费用。到10月22日那一周，哈里斯团队已经花了5240万美元，而特朗普团队只花了1410万美元。而且目前为止，特朗普只是在乔治亚州的总支出上领先。民主党在其他摇摆州投入得更多。民主党的策略师们早就开始投放宣传哈里斯生平和她在麦当劳打工的广告，随着选举日临近，他们可能会决定也来反击一下特朗普的攻击。
