What if Microsoft let OpenAI go free?

It may not be as crazy as it sounds
它可能不像听起来那么疯狂

2024年10月31日 01:06 下午 |旧金山和西雅图

CALL IT A spectacular modern-day version of Renaissance patronage. Since 2019 Microsoft has provided more than $13bn in cash and computing capacity to OpenAI, a once-penniless startup that is now at the forefront of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and, as of its most recent fundraising round, worth $157bn. In exchange, Microsoft has gained the exclusive right to run OpenAI’s models on Azure, its cloud-computing business.

称之为文艺复兴赞助的壮观现代版本。自 2019 年以来，微软已向 OpenAI 提供了超过 130 亿美元的现金和计算能力，这家曾经身无分文的初创公司现在处于生成人工智能 (AI) 的前沿，截至最近一轮融资，估值为 1570 亿美元。作为交换，微软获得了在其云计算业务 Azure 上运行 OpenAI 模型的独家权利。

So far it has been a wildly successful partnership. Funding from Microsoft has helped OpenAI build bigger and better large language models (LLMs). That technology, in turn, has been incorporated into Microsoft’s various software products. The ties between the two have allowed Azure to chip away at the lead of AWS, Amazon’s cloud-computing division, notes Brent Thill of Jefferies, an investment bank (see chart). Azure’s revenue grew 33%, year on year, in the quarter from July to September, exceeding expectations (though it projected growth would slow in the current quarter). Analysts reckon that AWS’s revenues grew by 19% for the same period (Amazon was due to report after The Economist went to press).

到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的合作伙伴关系。微软的资金帮助 OpenAI 构建了更大更好的大型语言模型 ( LLMs )。该技术又被纳入微软的各种软件产品中。投资银行杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 的布伦特·希尔 (Brent Thill) 指出，两者之间的联系使得 Azure 能够削弱亚马逊云计算部门 AWS 的领先地位（见图表）。在 7 月至 9 月的季度中，Azure 的收入同比增长 33%，超出预期（尽管它预计本季度的增长将放缓）。分析师估计，同期 AWS 的收入增长了 19%（亚马逊将在《经济学人》付印后发布报告）。

布伦特·希尔 图源:linkedin.com

Yet like Michelangelo with the Medicis, OpenAI sometimes chafes at the ties to its wealthy benefactor. Some of its board members and other investors have told The Economist they believe that Microsoft should loosen its grip. They have their eyes on the half of the cloud-computing market still controlled by AWS. Gaining access to that would increase OpenAI’s already dominant position in the provision of LLMs, lifting revenues that are expected to be upwards of $3.5bn this year.

然而，就像米开朗基罗和美第奇家族一样，OpenAI 有时也会对其与其富有的赞助人的关系感到恼火。一些董事会成员和其他投资者告诉《经济学人》，他们认为微软应该放松控制。他们把目光投向了仍由AWS控制的云计算市场的一半。获得这一机会将增强 OpenAI 在提供LLMs已经占据的主导地位，预计今年的收入将超过 35 亿美元。

Microsoft declines to discuss details of its contract with OpenAI. Given Azure’s long-standing rivalry with AWS, it is a fair bet the Redmond-based company is loth to lend its Seattle-based neighbour a helping hand. For Microsoft, however, ending its exclusive patronage of OpenAI may not be as crazy as it sounds.

微软拒绝讨论与 OpenAI 的合同细节。鉴于 Azure 与 AWS 的长期竞争，可以肯定的是，这家总部位于雷德蒙德的公司不愿意向其西雅图邻居伸出援助之手。然而，对于微软来说，结束对 OpenAI 的独家赞助可能并不像听起来那么疯狂。

Those championing more commercial freedom for OpenAI argue that although Microsoft might resent sharing models with AWS, in the long run its equity stake in OpenAI would mean it would benefit from the model-maker gaining broader market access. Antitrust concerns also bolster the case for giving OpenAI greater independence. America’s Federal Trade Commission and Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority have opened inquiries into the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI. Mr Thill of Jefferies says more openness would be in Microsoft’s long-term interest. “It’s like a kid going to college,” he says. “It’s painful. But the right thing is to let [OpenAI] out into the world.”

那些支持 OpenAI 更大商业自由的人认为，尽管微软可能不愿意与 AWS 共享模型，但从长远来看，其在 OpenAI 的股权将意味着它将从模型制造商获得更广泛的市场准入中受益。反垄断担忧也支持了给予 OpenAI 更大独立性的理由。美国联邦贸易委员会和英国竞争与市场管理局已对微软与 OpenAI 之间的关系展开调查。杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 的蒂尔表示，更多的开放性符合微软的长期利益。 “这就像一个孩子上大学，”他说。 “这很痛苦。但正确的做法是让 [OpenAI] 走向世界。”

Microsoft has already begun reducing its dependence on OpenAI. Satya Nadella, the tech giant’s boss, was reportedly shocked when Sam Altman, his counterpart at OpenAI, was briefly ousted last November, before being quickly reinstated. Since then Microsoft has been hedging its bets, including by adding LLMs from Mistral, a French AI firm, and others to its line-up and hiring nearly all the staff of Inflection, an OpenAI rival, including its boss, Mustafa Suleyman (who sits on the board of The Economist’s parent company). On October 29th Microsoft’s GitHub, which supports software developers, said it would offer more choice to its clients, allowing them to use other models.

微软已经开始减少对 OpenAI 的依赖。据报道，这家科技巨头的老板萨蒂亚·纳德拉 (Satya Nadella) 对 OpenAI 的同行萨姆·奥尔特曼 (Sam Altman) 去年 11 月被短暂解雇并很快恢复职务感到震惊。从那时起，微软一直在两面下注，包括将法国人工智能公司 Mistral 的LLMs和其他公司的法学硕士纳入自己的阵容，并雇佣了 OpenAI 竞争对手 Inflection 的几乎所有员工，包括其老板 Mustafa Suleyman（现任微软首席执行官）。经济学人母公司董事会成员）。 10 月 29 日，支持软件开发者的微软 GitHub 表示，将为客户提供更多选择，允许他们使用其他模型。

萨姆·奥尔特曼 图源:en.m.wikipedia.org

Microsoft and OpenAI are in the process of renegotiating the terms of their relationship as the model-maker changes its corporate structure from a non-profit to a profit-making entity. There may also be a looming sunset clause. OpenAI is believed to have the right to dissolve its commercial ties with Microsoft if its models reach a level of superhuman capability called artificial general intelligence. What that means in practice is subjective, but some AI enthusiasts argue it could be only a few years away.

随着模型制造商将其公司结构从非营利实体转变为营利实体，微软和 OpenAI 正在重新谈判双方关系的条款。可能还有一个迫在眉睫的日落条款。据信，如果 OpenAI 的模型达到了称为通用人工智能的超人能力水平，则 OpenAI 有权解除与微软的商业关系。这在实践中意味着什么是主观的，但一些人工智能爱好者认为这可能只需要几年时间。

Amazon, for its part, would be delighted to gain access to OpenAI’s models. “I would love for OpenAI to run on AWS,” says Matt Garman, AWS’s newish boss. Pradeep Sanyal, an AI consultant and former AWS executive, says that even though Amazon’s cloud business is still the biggest, it is “third in mindshare” when it comes to generative AI, behind Azure and Google Cloud Platform (whose revenues grew by 35%, year on year, in the latest quarter). Amazon has neither a big software business where it can demonstrate its AI capabilities nor an LLM whizzy enough to compete with those of OpenAI or Google.

就亚马逊而言，它会很高兴能够访问 OpenAI 的模型。 “我希望 OpenAI 能够在 AWS 上运行，”AWS 的新任老板 Matt Garman 说道。 AI 顾问兼前 AWS 高管 Pradeep Sanyal 表示，尽管亚马逊的云业务仍然是最大的，但在生成型 AI 方面，它的“认知度排名第三”，仅次于 Azure 和谷歌云平台（其收入增长了 35%） ，同比，最新季度）。亚马逊既没有可以展示其人工智能能力的大型软件业务，也没有足以与 OpenAI 或谷歌竞争的LLM硕士。

AWS offers customers a wide variety of models, ranging from those of Anthropic (in which Amazon is a big investor) to Meta’s Llama family of open models (which Mr Garman says are very popular among AI startups). Adding those of OpenAI would no doubt attract more customers. But Mr Garman does not believe any model will dominate completely; OpenAI, Anthropic and others are currently “leap-frogging each other”, he notes. On October 22nd Anthropic launched an experimental version of its Claude 3.5 Sonnet model that can use a computer the way a human does, including virtually operating the keyboard and mouse.

AWS 为客户提供了各种各样的模型，从 Anthropic 的模型（亚马逊是其中的大投资者）到 Meta 的 Llama 系列开放模型（Garman 先生表示，该模型在人工智能初创公司中非常受欢迎）。添加 OpenAI 无疑会吸引更多客户。但加曼先生并不认为任何模式都会完全占据主导地位。他指出，OpenAI、Anthropic 和其他公司目前正在“相互超越”。 10 月 22 日，Anthropic 推出了 Claude 3.5 Sonnet 模型的实验版本，该模型可以像人类一样使用计算机，包括虚拟操作键盘和鼠标。

Amazon’s more open approach may yet prevail. Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs, a bank, thinks it will take years, not months, to determine which of the different cloud-service providers emerges as the definitive winner in generative AI. He points out, though, that the long-running trend in cloud computing is away from exclusivity towards more open relationships. Like the Medicis, Microsoft may well go down in history for having spotted creative genius early on. But its hold over OpenAI may not last forever. ■

亚马逊更加开放的做法可能仍会盛行。高盛银行的埃里克·谢里丹（Eric Sheridan）认为，需要数年而不是数月的时间才能确定哪些不同的云服务提供商成为生成人工智能领域的最终赢家。不过，他指出，云计算的长期趋势是从排他性转向更开放的关系。与美第奇家族一样，微软很可能会因为很早就发现了创意天才而载入史册。但它对 OpenAI 的控制可能不会永远持续下去。 ■