American men are getting back to work

The ultra-gloomy picture painted by politicians is no longer accurate
政客描绘的极度悲观景象不再准确

2024年10月31日 01:06 下午 |华盛顿特区

AMERICA’S POLITICIANS have long worried about the rising share of men out of work. More on the sidelines means slower economic growth, heftier benefit payments and a frailer social fabric. During the election campaign, both candidates have offered policies designed to tackle this long-standing problem. Donald Trump proposes sweeping tariffs and clamping down on illegal immigration. Kamala Harris vows to revive traditional male sectors, not least manufacturing.

美国政客长期以来一直担心男性失业比例不断上升。更多的观望意味着经济增长放缓、福利支付更高以及社会结构更加脆弱。在竞选期间，两位候选人都提出了旨在解决这一长期存在问题的政策。唐纳德·特朗普提议征收全面关税并打击非法移民。卡玛拉·哈里斯发誓要重振传统的男性行业，尤其是制造业。

What the two candidates fail to notice is a recent trend in the labour market: men are getting back to work without such disruptive policies. The share of male Americans either in employment or looking for work had been falling for decades, shaping political perceptions. In the 1960s some 97% of prime-age men—those between 25 and 54—were economically active. By 2015 just 88% were. Since 2021, however, the share of prime-age men in the workforce has increased by two percentage points, reaching its highest since the global financial crisis of 2007-09. The improvement has been particularly pronounced among non-white workers, whose labour-force-participation rate is higher today than at any point over the past three decades.

两位候选人没有注意到劳动力市场最近的趋势：男性在没有此类破坏性政策的情况下重返工作岗位。几十年来，美国男性就业或找工作的比例一直在下降，影响了政治观念。 20 世纪 60 年代，约 97% 的壮年男性（25 岁至 54 岁之间）从事经济活动。到 2015 年，只有 88% 是这样的。然而，自 2021 年以来，劳动力中壮年男性的比例增加了两个百分点，达到 2007-09 年全球金融危机以来的最高水平。这种改善在非白人工人中尤其明显，他们今天的劳动力参与率比过去三十年的任何时候都要高。

What caused the initial exit from the workforce? Some economists argue that the problem was on the demand side, with automation and globalisation reducing the need for low-skilled workers. But the problem’s persistence across business cycles suggests that this does not offer a complete explanation. Others point to supply-side causes, such as the greater availability of disability insurance and the spread of opioids. Indeed, Alan Krueger of Princeton University found that nearly half of prime-age men out of the labour force in 2016 took pain medication every day.

最初退出劳动力市场的原因是什么？一些经济学家认为，问题出在需求方面，自动化和全球化减少了对低技能工人的需求。但这个问题在整个商业周期中持续存在，表明这并不能提供完整的解释。其他人则指出供应方的原因，例如残疾保险的普及和阿片类药物的普及。事实上，普林斯顿大学的艾伦·克鲁格发现，2016 年，近一半的壮年男性每天都服用止痛药。

Since the covid-19 pandemic, America’s booming economy has increased demand for workers, creating opportunities for low-skilled men. Over the past three years America has seen some of the fastest growth in male labour-force participation in the OECD club of mostly rich countries, which has occurred alongside an unprecedented rebound in the male employment rate. In most recessions the employment rate for working-age men falls and never fully returns to its previous level. This time has been different. Lavish stimulus and loose monetary policy during the pandemic have supercharged demand.

自covid-19大流行以来，美国蓬勃发展的经济增加了对工人的需求，为低技能男性创造了机会。过去三年里，美国在经合组织（主要是富裕国家）俱乐部中的男性劳动力参与率增长最快，同时男性就业率也出现了前所未有的反弹。在大多数经济衰退中，工作年龄男性的就业率都会下降，并且永远不会完全恢复到之前的水平。这次有所不同。疫情期间的大规模刺激和宽松的货币政策刺激了需求。

Supply-side factors also seem to have helped with the turnaround. For decades, the share of men receiving disability-insurance benefits increased along with economic inactivity. In 2015 nearly 4.6m men below the retirement age were on the disability-insurance rolls. By last year that number had fallen to 3.7m. Over the same period the number of men who cited disability as a reason for not being in the workforce dropped by 500,000. Monitoring of disability insurance has become more stringent. Less positively, as America has aged many men have transferred from disability to retirement benefits.

供应方因素似乎也有助于扭转局面。几十年来，随着经济不活跃，领取残疾保险福利的男性比例也在增加。 2015 年，近 460 万退休年龄以下的男性加入了伤残保险。到去年，这个数字已降至 370 万。同一时期，因残疾而无法参加工作的男性人数减少了 50 万人。对伤残保险的监管变得更加严格。不太积极的是，随着美国老龄化，许多男性已经从残疾转向退休福利。

There is still progress to be made. America’s male labour-force-participation rate remains relatively low, lagging behind countries including Britain, France and Germany. Getting men back to work remains a sensible enough goal for both presidential candidates. Nevertheless, the ultra-gloomy picture depicted on the campaign trail no longer matches reality. ■

仍有待取得进展。美国的男性劳动力参与率仍然相对较低，落后于英国、法国和德国等国家。对于两位总统候选人来说，让男性重返工作岗位仍然是一个足够明智的目标。然而，竞选过程中所描绘的极其悲观的景象已不再符合现实。 ■