Welcome to Trump’s world

His sweeping victory will shake up everything

他的压倒性胜利将撼动一切

2024年11月07日 06:13 上午

A STUNNING VICTORY has crowned Donald Trump the most consequential American president since Franklin D. Roosevelt. After defeating Kamala Harris—and not just narrowly, but by a wide margin—America’s 45th president will become its 47th. The fact that Mr Trump will be the first to win non-consecutive terms· since Grover Cleveland in 1892 does not start to do justice to his achievement. He has defined a new political era, for America and the world.

令人震惊的胜利使唐纳德·特朗普成为继富兰克林·罗斯福之后最具影响力的美国总统。在击败卡马拉·哈里斯之后——不仅是微弱优势，而是大幅优势——美国第 45 任总统将成为第 47 任总统。特朗普先生将成为自 1892 年格罗弗·克利夫兰以来第一个赢得非连续任期的人，这一事实并没有开始公正地对待他的成就。他为美国和世界定义了一个新的政治时代。

In some ways the Trump era is very modern. It was made possible by technological changes and media fragmentation, at a time when distinguishing law from politics and politics from showbiz is hard. But it is also a return to an old idea of America. Before the fight against fascism convinced FDR that it was in his country’s interest to help bring order and prosperity to the world, the country was hostile towards immigration, scornful of trade and sceptical of foreign entanglements. In the 1920s and 1930s that led to dark times. It could do so again.

从某些方面来说，特朗普时代非常现代。技术变革和媒体碎片化使之成为可能，而当时很难区分法律与政治、政治与演艺圈。但这也是对美国旧观念的回归。在反法西斯主义的斗争使罗斯福相信帮助世界带来秩序和繁荣符合他的国家利益之前，该国对移民持敌视态度，蔑视贸易并对外国纠缠持怀疑态度。在1920 年代和 1930 年代，这导致了黑暗时期。现在它可以再次这样做。

After Tuesday’s victory, the world lies at Mr Trump’s feet. He has won a mandate and, probably, the control over Washington he needs to exercise it. In what was supposed to be a knife-edge election, Mr Trump carried most of the battleground states. Thanks to big swings in states that were never in doubt, including Florida, New Jersey and New York, he also won the popular vote. As the polls predicted, he enjoyed a big surge in support from Latino men. But women, whom Ms Harris had expected to move to her, also swung towards Mr Trump. His victory will be made complete by Republicans retaking the Senat‍e and, as seems likely, holding on to the House.

周二的胜利之后，世界就拜倒在特朗普的脚下。他已经赢得了授权，而且很可能还赢得了他行使这一授权所需的对华盛顿的控制权。在本应是一场势均力敌的选举中，特朗普赢得了大部分战场州。由于佛罗里达州、新泽西州和纽约州等毫无疑问的州的大幅波动，他也赢得了普选。正如民意调查所预测的那样，他在拉丁裔男性中的支持率大幅上升。但哈里斯原以为会转向她的女性也转向了特朗普。共和党重新夺回参议院，并且很有可能保住众议院，他的胜利将告一段落。

There will be time for recriminations among Democrats about what went wrong, but the early answer is: almost everything. Poll after poll said that under President Joe Biden the country was going in the wrong direction. Voters never forgave him for the burst of inflation that began in the summer of 2021. The Biden administration promoted a view of culture that is out of step with most Americans, especially on sex and gender, which featured in a lot of Trump campaign ads. Most damaging of all, voters throughout the country were infuriated by the Democrats’ failure to stop people crossing the southern border illegally. The party compounded its errors by covering up Mr Biden’s disqualifying frailty until it was undeniable. By then they had no time to find a political talent capable of beating Mr Trump.

民主党人会有时间对问题所在进行相互指责，但早期的答案是：几乎所有事情。一次又一次的民意调查显示，在乔·拜登总统的领导下，美国正朝着错误的方向前进。选民们从未原谅他从 2021 年夏天开始的通货膨胀。拜登政府宣扬了一种与大多数美国人格格不入的文化观，尤其是在性和性别方面，这在特朗普的许多竞选广告中都有体现。最具有破坏性的是，全国选民对民主党未能阻止人们非法越过南部边境感到愤怒。该党掩盖了拜登的不合格弱点，直至其无可否认，从而雪上加霜。那时他们已经没有时间去寻找能够击败特朗普的政治人才了。

Something deeper is afoot, too. In 2016 some people comforted themselves with the thought that Mr Trump’s presidency was an aberration. By choosing to overlook his attempts to stop the transfer of power to Mr Biden in 2020, voters have shown how wrong that conclusion was. Instead they have endorsed Mr Trump’s unbounded exploitation of partisanship as the basis of his politics, including the slander of his opponents as corrupt and treacherous. This has spread a cynicism and despair about the merits of government that may serve him, but will not serve America’s democracy. MAGA is a movement of iconoclasm against the kind of benign internationalists who occupied the White House for 70 years. This week a majority of voters embraced it with their eyes open.

更深层次的事情也在酝酿之中。2016年，一些人安慰自己，认为特朗普的总统任期是一种反常现象。通过选择忽视他阻止 2020 年将权力移交给拜登的努力，选民们已经表明这个结论是多么错误。相反，他们支持特朗普无限制地利用党派之争作为其政治基础，包括诽谤他的对手腐败和奸诈。这传播了一种对政府的优点的愤世嫉俗和绝望情绪，这些政府可能为他服务，但不会为美国的民主服务。MAGA 是一场反传统运动，反对占领白宫 70 年来的善良国际主义者。本周，大多数选民都睁大了眼睛接受了它。

If Mr Trump has wrecked the old order, what will take its place? Whereas the old America championed free trade, Mr Trump will accelerate the return to pre-war mercantilism. He is a believer in tariffs. Trade deficits, he claims, are proof that foreigners are taking his country for fools. On his watch America is likely to be spendthrift·, as he and his party push through tax cuts, which will further widen the budget deficit. Mr Trump has promised massive deregulation. That may well bring benefits, but the next president loves power and craves sycophancy. There is a risk he will carve out special deals for his supporters, such as Elon Musk, the world’s richest man.

如果特朗普破坏了旧秩序，那么取而代之的将是什么？旧美国倡导自由贸易，而特朗普将加速回归战前的重商主义。他是关税的信徒。他声称，贸易逆差证明外国人把他的国家当成了傻瓜。在他的领导下，美国可能会挥霍无度，因为他和他的政党推动减税，这将进一步扩大预算赤字。特朗普承诺大规模放松监管。这很可能会带来好处，但下一任总统热爱权力并渴望阿谀奉承。他有可能为他的支持者（例如世界首富埃隆·马斯克）制定特殊交易。

Our hope is that Mr Trump will avoid these pitfalls, and we acknowledge that in his first term he mostly did. Our fear is that during this presidency he will be at his most radical and unrestrained, especially if, as America’s oldest-ever president, his powers begin to fail him. Having learned from Trump 1, his team will set out to ensure that no one who is likely to restrain him will be appointed to the administration. Mr Trump will therefore be able to put his control of Congress and his popular mandate to maximum use.

我们希望特朗普先生能够避免这些陷阱，我们承认，在他的第一个任期内，他基本上做到了。我们担心的是，在本届总统任期内，他将表现得最为激进和无拘无束，特别是如果作为美国历史上最年长的总统，他的权力开始失效的话。吸取特朗普一号的教训，他的团队将着手确保不会任命任何可能限制他的人进入政府。因此，特朗普将能够最大限度地利用他对国会的控制和民众的授权。

In the decades after FDR, American foreign policy worked through alliances. By contrast, Mr Trump’s instincts are to treat allies as suckers to be shaken down. He likes to say he is so unpredictable that America’s adversaries will be too cowed to try anything. He may indeed be able to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine that does not end up with Russian tanks in Kyiv. He may also be able to exert pressure on Iran and deter China from using military power to dominate Asia. But if Mr Trump’s threats seem like bluster, his unpredictability· is just as likely to encourage Chinese and Russian aggression.

在罗斯福之后的几十年里，美国的外交政策通过联盟发挥作用。相比之下，特朗普的本能是将盟友视为需要动摇的傻瓜。他喜欢说他是如此不可预测，以至于美国的对手会被吓得不敢尝试任何事情。他或许确实能够与弗拉基米尔·普京就乌克兰问题达成一项协议，但最终不会导致俄罗斯坦克停驻基辅。

What is clear is that uncertainty will impose costs on America’s allies, especially in Europe·. If they fear they cannot depend on Mr Trump to support them when they are threatened, they will take steps to protect themselves. At the very least America’s allies will need to spend more on their own defence. If they cannot muster enough conventional weapons to deter the local aggressor, some of them may follow Britain and France and seek to acquire nuclear weapons.

显而易见的是，不确定性将给美国的盟友带来成本，尤其是欧洲的盟友。如果他们担心在受到威胁时不能依靠特朗普先生的支持，他们就会采取措施保护自己。至少，美国的盟友需要在自身防务上投入更多资金。如果他们不能集结足够的常规武器来威慑当地侵略者，其中一些国家可能会效仿英国和法国，寻求获得核武器。

The imitation game

模仿游戏

Part of America’s global influence came through the power of example. In their own politics and in their international conduct, its leaders were mindful of the precedents they were setting. What was remarkable was not that they sometimes broke the rules, but how much they stuck by them. Under Mr Trump the converse will be true. His victory will inspire imitators elsewhere. In Brazil Jair Bolsonaro was elected two years after Mr Trump won in 2016. In France Marine Le Pen now seems a more likely president in 2027. The international movement of nationalist populists that seemed to be waning after 2020 will be revived. If Mr Trump uses the justice system against his opponents, as he has vowed, it will set a dangerous example.

美国的全球影响力部分来自于榜样的力量。在他们自己的政治和国际行为中，其领导人都牢记他们所树立的先例。值得注意的不是他们有时会违反规则，而是他们对规则的遵守程度。在特朗普的领导下，情况恰恰相反。他的胜利将激励其他地方的效仿者。在巴西，雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗 (Jair Bolsonaro) 在特朗普于 2016 年获胜两年后当选。在法国，马琳·勒庞 (Marine Le Pen) 现在看来更有可能在 2027 年当选总统。2020 年之后看似衰落的国际民族主义民粹主义运动将卷土重来。如果特朗普像他所誓言的那样利用司法系统来对付他的对手，这将树立一个危险的榜样。

马琳.勒庞 图源:edition.cnn.com

It will take time for the full significance of Mr Trump’s victory to sink in. America remains the pre-eminent power. Despite the debasement of its politics, its economy is world-beating—at least for now. It dominates artificial intelligence. It is rich and its armed forces are second-to-none, even if the People’s Liberation Army· is catching up.

人们需要一段时间才能了解特朗普获胜的全部意义。美国仍然是最重要的力量。尽管其政治状况恶化，但其经济却是世界领先的——至少目前如此。它主导着人工智能。它很富有，其武装力量也是首屈一指的，即使CN 正在迎头赶上。

However, without American enlightened self-interest as an organising principle, the world will belong to bullies. Countries will be more able to browbeat their neighbours, economically and militarily, without fear of consequences. Their victims, unable to turn to America for relief, will be more likely to compromise or capitulate. Global initiatives, from tackling climate change to arms control, have just got harder.

然而，如果没有美国开明的自身利益作为组织原则，世界将属于恶霸。各国将更有能力在经济和军事上威吓邻国，而不必担心后果。他们的受害者无法向美国寻求救济，更有可能妥协或投降。从应对气候变化到军备控制，全球倡议变得更加困难。

The old order in the new world

新世界中的旧秩序

Mr Trump would no doubt retort that this is the world’s problem, not America’s. Under him, Americans can get on with their lives free from the weight of foreign responsibilities. And yet, two world wars and the ruinous collapse of trade in the 1930s say that America does not have that luxury. For a time—possibly for years—America may do fine. Eventually, the world will catch up with it. ■

特朗普先生无疑会反驳说，这是世界的问题，而不是美国的问题。在他的领导下，美国人可以摆脱外交责任的重担继续生活。然而，两次世界大战和 20 世纪 30 年代贸易的毁灭性崩溃表明美国并没有这种奢侈。在一段时间内——可能是几年——美国可能会表现得很好。最终，世界将赶上它。■