Tesla is not the only winner under Donald Trump

Which businesses will thrive over the next four years?
哪些企业将在未来四年蓬勃发展？

2024年11月14日 08:53 上午

APARTOF Donald Trump’s political genius is being all things to all people—or at least to all his supporters. He has said so many contradictory things, throughout his public life and during the presidential campaign, that it is easy to latch on to the bits you like and either ignore those you don’t, or dismiss them as braggadocio. Investors, it seems, are no different. The former president’s decisive victory on November 5th sparked a global rally in equities, as stockpickers filled the Trump-shaped hole in their vision of the future with hopes and dreams. In those reveries, lower taxes and less red tape propel the planet’s biggest economy, and with it the economy of the planet as a whole. By the end of the week stocks were up by 2.4% globally relative to election day.

唐纳德·特朗普的政治天才在于为所有人——或者至少为他的所有支持者——提供一切所需。在他的整个公共生活和总统竞选期间，他说过很多自相矛盾的事情，因此很容易只抓住你喜欢的部分而忽略那些你不喜欢的部分，或者将它们视为吹牛。投资者似乎也不例外。这位前总统 11 月 5 日的决定性胜利引发了全球股市上涨，选股者用希望和梦想填补了他们对未来愿景中特朗普形状的漏洞。在这些遐想中，较低的税收和较少的繁文缛节推动着这个星球上最大的经济体，以及整个星球的经济。截至本周末，全球股市相对于选举日上涨了 2.4%。

Look at share prices and Mr Trump somehow seems great for both Tesla’s electric vehicles (EVs) and Detroit’s gas-guzzlers; for Wall Street and for crypto firms; for American manufacturers, whom he vows to protect, and for Mexican firms, from which they allegedly need protecting; and for oil stocks, even though his urging to “drill, baby, drill” could depress profits by denting crude prices.Even shares in Chinese firms, cannon fodder in any Trumpian trade war, gained 2% by the end of November 7th.

看看股价，特朗普先生似乎对特斯拉的电动汽车和底特律的高油耗汽车都很有利。对于华尔街和加密货币公司来说；对于他发誓要保护的美国制造商，以及据称需要保护的墨西哥公司；对于石油股来说，尽管他敦促“钻探，宝贝，钻探”可能会因原油价格下跌而压低利润。即使是特朗普贸易战中的炮灰——中国企业的股价，到 11 月 7 日年底也上涨了 2%。

The world is complicated and not everything revolves around the American vote (really).to jolt the world’s second-biggest economy. A day earlier the government imploded in the third-biggest,Germany.The fourth-biggest,Japan, has looked shaky since a general election on October 27th, where no party won a majority. Even in America, investors’ enthusiasm may owe more to the decisiveness of Mr Trump’s win, which eliminated worries about post-election unrest, than to the winner himself.

世界很复杂，并不是所有事情都围绕着美国选票（真的）。 11 月 8 日，ZG推出了 1.4 万亿美元的经济刺激计划，震动了世界第二大经济体。一天前，第三大经济体德国政府垮台。第四大国家日本自 10 月 27 日大选以来一直显得不稳定，没有任何政党赢得多数席位。即使在美国，投资者的热情也可能更多地归功于特朗普获胜的决定性，这消除了人们对大选后动荡的担忧，而不是获胜者本人。

All of which makes predicting which businesses will and will not thrive in the next four years a mug’s game—especially until it becomes clear who will be making policy under Mr Trump. Call Schumpeter a mug, then—or enough of one to venture three guesses. First, American firms will do better than non-American ones. Second, in America, smaller listed companies should enjoy a bigger boost than larger ones. Third, Mr Trump and his cronies may not make out like bandits.

所有这些使得预测未来四年哪些企业会蓬勃发展、哪些企业不会蓬勃发展成为一件很困难的事情——尤其是在弄清楚谁将在特朗普领导下制定政策之前。那么，熊彼特就是个傻瓜——或者说，这个傻瓜足以让我们进行三种猜测。首先，美国公司会比非美国公司做得更好。其次，在美国，规模较小的上市公司应该比规模较大的上市公司获得更大的提振。第三，特朗普和他的亲信可能不会表现得像强盗。

The main reason corporate America as a whole ought to best its peers is that it has been doing so for years, Trump or no Trump. American firms are bigger, grow faster and turn fatter profits than rivals in other countries. On top of that starting advantage they would, obviously, benefit from any cuts to corporate taxes, which flow automatically to their bottom lines, and from deregulation, which cuts other costs.

美国企业界作为一个整体应该超越同行的主要原因是，无论有没有特朗普，它多年来一直这样做。与其他国家的竞争对手相比，美国公司规模更大、增长更快、利润更高。显然，除了这一起始优势之外，他们还将受益于公司税的任何削减（这会自动计入他们的利润）以及放松管制（这会削减其他成本）。

Although legal and legislative hurdles might get in the way of Mr Trump’s campaign promise to slap a 10-20% tariff on all foreign goods, and 60% for Chinese ones, some increase is likely. American firms would pay more for imports and face retaliation when selling abroad. Lucky for them, they are on average less exposed to global commerce than multinationals in the export-oriented economies of China, Europe and Japan. If worse comes to worst, America Inc can always fall back on its vast domestic market. Tariffs won’t be “beautiful”, to use Mr Trump’s locution, for shoppers, but in the short run they needn’t be ugly for profits.

尽管法律和立法障碍可能会阻碍特朗普竞选时的承诺，即对所有外国商品征收 10-20% 的关税，对中国商品征收 60% 的关税，但关税仍有可能有所增加。美国公司将支付更高的进口费用，并在海外销售时面临报复。对他们来说幸运的是，与中国、欧洲和日本等出口导向型经济体的跨国公司相比，他们对全球商业的平均影响较小。如果情况最糟，美国公司总能依靠其广阔的国内市场。用特朗普的话说，关税对于购物者来说不会是“美丽的”，但从短期来看，它们对于利润来说不一定是丑陋的。

TheS&P 500 index of America’s largest listed firms jumped by 3.5% in the week after the election, while similar indices in other places have risen less (China, Japan, Mexico) or fallen (Europe, India, Hong Kong). Impressive—until you see the 5.8% leap by the Russell 2000, which tracks the smallest public companies in America. This is a welcome change for not-so-big business, whose returns have lagged behind those of corporate superstars for about ten years, the longest spell in decades, according to Steven DeSanctis of Jefferies, an investment bank.

美国最大上市公司的标准普尔 500 指数在大选后一周上涨了 3.5%，而其他地方的类似指数涨幅较小（ZG、日本、墨西哥）或下跌（欧洲、印度、香港）。令人印象深刻——直到你看到追踪美国最小上市公司的罗素 2000 指数 (Russell 2000) 上涨了 5.8%。投资银行杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 的史蒂文·德桑蒂斯 (Steven DeSanctis) 表示，对于规模不大的企业来说，这是一个可喜的变化，这些企业的回报率落后于企业巨星的时间大约有十年，这是几十年来最长的一段时间。

Now things may look up for business’s Davids. They are less able than the Goliaths to slice through tedious bureaucracy, so less of it would benefit them more. Under Mr Trump, who fancies himself dealmaker-in-chief, trustbusters may wave through more acquisitions, which create value for the smaller target’s shareholders (though not necessarily for those of the buyer).

现在，戴维斯的生意可能会好转。他们不像歌利亚那样能够打破繁琐的官僚机构，因此越少的官僚机构对他们来说就越有利。特朗普自诩为交易撮合者，在他的领导下，反托拉斯者可能会发起更多收购，为规模较小的目标公司的股东创造价值（尽管不一定为买方的股东创造价值）。

And in the event of a tariff tit-for-tat, smaller firms tend to be less exposed to international trade than multinationals. The two biggest post-election winners among America’s 1,500 most valuable firms were domestically focused tiddlers (and the stuff of Democrats’ nightmares):GEO Group, which among other things runs detention centres for migrants, and CoreCivic, a private-prison operator. Each gained two-thirds in value over three days, bringing their combined market capitalisation to nearly $6bn.

在针锋相对的关税情况下，小企业往往比跨国企业更少参与国际贸易。美国 1,500 家最有价值公司中的两家最大的选举后赢家都是专注于国内业务的公司（也是民主党的噩梦）：经营移民拘留中心的 GEO 集团和私人监狱运营商 CoreCivic。每只股票的价值在三天内都上涨了三分之二，使它们的总市值达到近 60 亿美元。

Donald & Co: buy, hold or sell?

唐纳德公司：买入、持有还是卖出？

Exactly how much Mr Trump and his chums will end up profiting is uncertain. Elon Musk has added around $40bn to his fortune thanks to the soaring price of Tesla shares, up by around 30% since November 5th—a tidy return on the $100m or so he spent on helping elect Mr Trump. An early test of the bromance looms. Mr Trump’s campaign promised to repeal emissions rules. But these let Tesla sell credits to carmakers that do not make enoughEVs to meet regulatory standards. According to Jefferies, sales of such credits accounted for 35% of the free cashflow Tesla generated between 2019 and 2023. What happens next will be a useful guide to Mr Musk’s influence over policy—and to the performance of his commercial empire.

特朗普和他的密友最终会获利多少还不确定。由于特斯拉股价飙升，埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 的财富增加了约 400 亿美元，自 11 月 5 日以来上涨了约 30%，这与他为帮助特朗普当选而花费的约 1 亿美元相比，已经是一笔可观的回报。对兄弟情谊的早期考验迫在眉睫。特朗普的竞选团队承诺废除排放规定。但这些让特斯拉可以向那些无法生产足够电动汽车来满足监管标准的汽车制造商出售积分。据 Jefferies 称，此类积分的销售占特斯拉 2019 年至 2023 年间产生的自由现金流的 35%。接下来发生的事情将有助于了解马斯克对政策的影响力以及他的商业帝国的表现。

Things look hazier, alas, for the listed parent of Mr Trump’s X clone, Truth Social. After wild swings its shares were 10% cheaper a week after the election. On polling day it reported a net loss of $19m on sales of $1m. The American president’s immense power is no match for arithmetic.■

唉，对于特朗普的克隆公司Truth Social的上市母公司来说，情况看起来更加模糊。在剧烈波动之后，其股价在大选后一周下跌了10%。在投票日，该公司报告销售额为100万美元，净亏损1900万美元。美国总统的巨大权力不是算术的对手。■