Turkey’s long hard struggle with inflation
High interest rates are starting to do the trick
高利率开始发挥作用
10月 10, 2024 08:23 上午 |伊斯坦布尔
SETTING INTEREST rates in Turkey is like skiing in pre-lift days. Going down is the easy part. Climbing back up is gruelling, and takes ages. The country’s central bankers have been doing so since the summer of 2023, and they still need more time.
土耳其的利率就像在缆车前的日子里滑雪。下降是容易的部分。重新爬上去很辛苦,而且需要很长时间。该国的央行行长自 2023 年夏天以来一直在这样做,他们仍然需要更多时间。
They do have something to show for their pains. Interest-rate increases that have totalled a whopping 41.5 percentage points have started to unwind Turkey’s inflation spiral, the result of earlier, reckless cuts. Annual consumer-price growth has dipped from 71.6% in June to 49.4% in September. For the first time in three years, the benchmark interest rate, now 50%, exceeds the inflation rate.
他们的痛苦确实有一些东西可以展示。总计高达 41.5 个百分点的加息已经开始缓解土耳其的通胀螺旋,这是早些时候鲁莽降息的结果。年度消费者价格增长率从 6 月份的 71.6% 下降到 9 月份的 49.4%。基准利率(目前为 50%)三年来首次超过通货膨胀率。
Only recently, this had invited speculation that Turkey’s tightening cycle was nearing its end, and that the bank would begin to cut rates as soon as November. But easing may have to wait. Monthly price growth, which reached 3% in September, continues to be too fast for comfort. “We will stay tight until the underlying trend of monthly inflation comes down on a sustainable basis,” the bank’s deputy governor, Cevdet Akcay, says over coffee in Istanbul. “There’s no other way.”
就在最近,这引发了人们的猜测,即土耳其的紧缩周期已接近尾声,该银行最早将在 11 月开始降息。但宽松政策可能还需要等待。9 月份达到 3% 的月度价格增长仍然太快了,让人感到不舒服。“我们将保持紧缩,直到月度通胀的基本趋势可持续下降,”该银行副行长 Cevdet Akcay 在伊斯坦布尔喝咖啡时说。“别无他法。”
土耳其央行 图源:百度
Such patience is in short supply among Turks. Over a year has passed since Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, gave the central bank a mandate to undo the damage his earlier policies had wrought on the economy. But ordinary consumers complain they have the worst of both worlds. Prices continue to rocket and credit has become unbearably expensive. The longer this continues, the weaker the country’s growth prospects become.
土耳其人缺乏这样的耐心。自土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安 (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) 授权央行消除其早期政策对经济造成的损害以来,已经过去了一年多。但普通消费者抱怨他们两全其美。价格继续飙升,信贷变得昂贵得难以忍受。这种情况持续的时间越长,该国的增长前景就越黯淡。
The state of the economy already cost Mr Erdogan dearly, when his Justice and Development (AK) party was bested by the opposition in local elections this spring, the party’s first overall defeat since it took power in 2002. Turkey’s next big election is due in 2028, which suggests the government has enough time to set the economy right. But a snap vote, even as early as next year, is not out of the question. That could spell big trouble for the new economic programme. To avoid losing power, Turkey’s leader, or an anointed successor, would probably revert to handouts and deep interest-rate cuts: inflation be damned.
埃尔多安的经济状况已经让埃尔多安付出了沉重的代价,当时他领导的正义与发展党(AK)党在今年春天的地方选举中被反对党击败,这是该党自2002年掌权以来的首次全面失败。土耳其的下一次大选将于 2028 年举行,这表明政府有足够的时间来调整经济。但即使最早在明年进行快速投票,也不是不可能的。这可能会给新的经济计划带来大麻烦。为了避免失去权力,土耳其领导人或受膏的继任者可能会恢复施舍和大幅降息:通货膨胀该死。
One reason why inflation in Turkey has proved exceptionally sticky is the imbalance between monetary discipline and government largesse. The budget deficit is expected to reach 4.9% of GDP this year, according to the government’s own figures, before dipping to 3.1% next year. “The central bank is pressing the brakes,” says Hakan Kara, the bank’s former chief economist, “but the government does not want to take its foot off the gas pedal.” Mr Erdogan’s belated conversion to economic orthodoxy has played a role too. Tightening in Turkey began only after inflation had neared triple digits, and only once Turkey’s leader had secured his re-election.
土耳其的通货膨胀被证明异常棘手的原因之一是货币纪律和政府慷慨之间的不平衡。根据政府自己的数据,预计今年预算赤字将达到 GDP 的 4.9%,明年将降至 3.1%。“央行正在踩刹车,”该银行前首席经济学家哈坎·卡拉(Hakan Kara)说,“但政府不想放开油门。埃尔多安姗姗来迟地转向经济正统也起到了一定作用。土耳其的紧缩政策是在通货膨胀率接近三位数之后才开始的,而且是在土耳其领导人获得连任之后才开始的。
他任命的经济团队赢回了外国投资者的信任,自今年年初以来,外国投资者已经购买了约 140 亿美元的土耳其债券。普通土耳其人对过去五年的经历感到清醒,这些经历见证了本国货币暴跌、物价飙升,埃尔多安更换了四位不同的财政部长和五位央行行长,他们则不那么乐观。央行预计,到今年年底,年通胀率将降至 38%;家庭认为 70% 左右。这也给价格带来了压力。预计货币价值会随着时间的推移而贬值的土耳其人将继续消费而不是储蓄,这使得通货膨胀更难降低。
土耳其央行总裁法提赫·卡拉汉 图源:cnbc.com
But the bank has at last offered them an incentive to save, and to do so in local currency. Sky-high deposit rates have lured Turks back to their own lira, reversing years of dollarisation. The share of lira deposits, which stood at 31% of the total in August last year, has reached 53%. The currency is still losing value against the dollar, but much more slowly. This has helped defuse a ticking time-bomb, in the form of a programme that insured deposits against currency shocks that Mr Erdogan’s previous cabinet had placed under the budget. In just over a year, depositors have withdrawn some $100bn from the scheme.
但银行最终为他们提供了储蓄的激励,并以当地货币进行储蓄。天价的存款利率吸引了土耳其人回到自己的里拉,扭转了多年的美元化趋势。里拉存款的份额从去年 8 月占总额的 31% 上升到 53%。该货币兑美元仍在贬值,但贬值速度要慢得多。这有助于拆除一颗滴答作响的定时炸弹,其形式是埃尔多安的前任内阁已将其纳入预算的计划,为存款提供货币冲击保险。在短短一年多的时间里,储户已经从该计划中提取了约 1000 亿美元。
Not everyone is a fan of a relatively strong lira. Turkish exporters are pleading with the bank to devalue the currency. Mr Akcay says this would put new upward pressure on prices, and that using a weak currency to seek a competitive edge has proved to be a dead end. “We keep policy tight to tame inflation, and that may lead to further real appreciation,” he says, “not by design, but as a consequence.” ■
不是每个人都喜欢相对强势的里拉。土耳其出口商恳求该银行使货币贬值。Akcay 先生表示,这将给价格带来新的上行压力,而事实证明,利用疲软的货币来寻求竞争优势是一条死胡同。“我们保持政策紧缩以抑制通胀,这可能会导致进一步的真正升值,”他说,“不是有意为之,而是结果。■