Ireland’s government has an unusual problem: too much money

A tax windfall has added to already overflowing coffers
税收意外之财又增加了本已盈余的金库

2024年10月31日 01:06 下午 |都柏林

ACROSS EUROPE fiscal policy is causing headaches. The governments of Britain and France are both raising tax rates sharply. Germany is hobbled by a self-imposed debt brake. Meanwhile, Italy’s profligate borrowing continues to unsettle investors. Ireland faces a different problem: the government is so flushwith cash it does not know quite what to do with it.

整个欧洲的财政政策都令人头疼。英国和法国政府都在大幅提高税率。德国因自我施加的债务刹车而陷入困境。与此同时，意大利的挥霍借贷继续令投资者感到不安。爱尔兰面临着一个不同的问题：政府拥有如此充裕的现金，以至于不知道如何使用它们。

In September the European Court of Justice delivered a verdict in a long-running legal battle over whether Apple had benefited from unfair (and now closed) loopholes in Ireland’s tax code. As a result, the American tech firm will have to hand over €13bn ($14bn) to the Irish tax authorities, along with over €1bn of interest—an amount equivalent to 4.8% of the country’s annual national income. To the bemusement of other cash-strapped governments, the Irish authorities sided with Apple in its battles with Europe’s courts, arguing that the firm had done nothing wrong.

9 月，欧洲法院就苹果是否从爱尔兰税法不公平（现已封闭）漏洞中受益这一长期法律纠纷做出了裁决。因此，这家美国科技公司将不得不向爱尔兰税务机关缴纳 130 亿欧元（140 亿美元）以及超过 10 亿欧元的利息，相当于该国年国民收入的 4.8%。令其他资金短缺的政府感到困惑的是，爱尔兰当局在与欧洲法院的斗争中站在了苹果公司一边，认为该公司没有做错任何事。

The Irish economy is doing exceptionally well. Modified gross national income, which takes account of distortions created by the high number of multinational firms based in the country, is expected to grow by 4.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Unemployment is just 4.3%. Inflation has fallen below 2%. The government’s fiscal position was already looking solid before the Apple-related juicing (see chart). It ran a surplus in 2022 and 2023, and was expecting another this year. Ministers now predict a surplus worth 7.5% of national income this year and 2.9% in 2025, even after increasing spending and cutting taxes.

爱尔兰经济表现异常出色。考虑到大量跨国公司在该国设立所造成的扭曲，修正后的国民总收入预计今年将增长 4.9%，2025 年将增长 2.7%。失业率仅为 4.3%。通货膨胀率已降至2%以下。在苹果相关的榨汁之前，政府的财政状况看起来已经很稳固（见图表）。它在 2022 年和 2023 年实现了盈余，并预计今年将再次实现盈余。部长们现在预测，即使在增加支出和减税之后，今年的盈余仍将占国民收入的 7.5%，到 2025 年将达到 2.9%。

Ireland has offered competitive corporate-tax rates in order to attract foreign firms since the 1950s. Even as welfare benefits were sharply cut and other taxes increased during the euro crisis in the early 2010s, corporation tax was left at a generous 12.5%. The strategy has reaped big rewards in recent years. In 2015 corporation-tax receipts were €7bn. By last year they had reached €24bn. And the finance ministry expects them to rise to €30bn a year by the late 2020s. The government agreed in 2021 to raise the corporate-tax rate, as part of a deal involving over 140 countries to set a global minimum. But the increase is modest: the new rate, which kicked in this year for large companies, is 15%.

自 20 世纪 50 年代以来，爱尔兰一直提供具有竞争力的企业税率以吸引外国公司。尽管 2010 年代初欧元危机期间福利大幅削减，其他税收增加，但公司税仍维持在 12.5% 的高水平。近年来，这一战略取得了巨大的回报。2015 年公司税收入为 70 亿欧元。到去年，这一数字已达到 240 亿欧元。财政部预计到 2020 年代末，这一数字将增至每年 300 亿欧元。作为涉及 140 多个国家的协议的一部分，政府同意在 2021 年提高公司税率，以设定全球最低税率。但增幅不大：今年针对大公司实行的新税率为 15%。

The rise in tax receipts has two main explanations. In the mid-2010s some of America’s largest tech firms reorganised their tax arrangements after criticism from European governments on the use of loopholes. Pressed to move declared profits to countries where they had substantial operations, rather than a brass-plate office with few employees, many picked Ireland. Britain’s decision to leave the EU in 2016 added to the appeal of the country for American firms, as Ireland became the only anglophone member of the single market.

税收收入的增加主要有两个原因。2010 年代中期，在欧洲政府批评利用漏洞后，美国一些最大的科技公司重组了税收安排。由于被迫将申报利润转移到拥有大量业务的国家，而不是员工很少的黄铜办公室，许多人选择了爱尔兰。英国于 2016 年决定退出欧盟，增加了该国对美国公司的吸引力，因为爱尔兰成为单一市场中唯一以英语为母语的成员。

Irish policymakers are aware that the tax base is narrow as well as bountiful. In 2022 just ten firms accounted for three-fifths of corporate-tax receipts. Moreover, corporation tax amounted to 27% of all receipts that year, more than double the OECD average. Recognising this vulnerability, the Irish government intends to treat the Apple windfall in the same way that Norway treated North Sea oil revenues: it will set up a sovereign-wealth fund. Two separate pots are being established. Ministers hope their combined value will reach €100bn by 2040, at which point they will start to spend the income generated.

爱尔兰政策制定者意识到，税基既狭窄又丰富。2022 年，仅仅 10 家公司就占了企业税收收入的五分之三。此外，公司税占当年所有收入的 27%，是经合组织平均水平的两倍多。认识到这一脆弱性，爱尔兰政府打算像挪威对待北海石油收入一样对待苹果公司的意外之财：它将设立一个主权财富基金。两个独立的盆地正在建立中。部长们希望到 2040 年它们的总价值将达到 1000 亿欧元，届时他们将开始花费所产生的收入。

There is also space for giveaways. With an election due early next year, a recent budget contained treats. While most European finance ministries retreat from support handed out during the energy-price shock of 2021-23, Irish households will receive a €250 energy credit this winter. Child benefits were also lifted and income-tax thresholds raised. Public investment in infrastructure was increased by €3bn.

依然有免费赠送的空间。由于明年初即将举行选举，最近的预算包含了一些优惠。尽管大多数欧洲财政部都放弃了 2021-23 年能源价格冲击期间提供的支持，但爱尔兰家庭将在今年冬天获得 250 欧元的能源信贷。儿童福利也被取消，所得税起征点也被提高。基础设施公共投资增加 30 亿欧元。

The problem confronting Irish policymakers is a lack of slack in the economy. The European Central Bank will continue to reduce interest rates, responding to bleak conditions elsewhere on the continent. Ireland’s jobs market is tight. Any additional moves by the government to cut taxes or increase spending are likely to push up inflation. Full details on how some of the Apple windfall will be spent are due to arrive in January; ministers are already under pressure to splash even more cash. The politics of closing a deficit are never easy. Nor, it seems, are the politics of running an enormous surplus. ■

爱尔兰政策制定者面临的问题是经济缺乏闲置。欧洲央行将继续降低利率，以应对欧洲大陆其他地区的黯淡状况。爱尔兰的就业市场紧张。政府任何额外的减税或增加支出的举措都可能推高通胀。有关苹果公司的部分意外之财将如何使用的完整细节将于一月份公布；部长们已经面临着投入更多资金的压力。消除赤字的政治从来都不是一件容易的事。巨额盈余的政治似乎也并非如此。■