Pedro Sánchez clings to office at a cost to Spain’s democracy
His opponents accuse him of subverting the constitution
他的反对者指责他颠覆宪法
2024年10月03日 07:23 上午 |马德里
“WE WILL MOVE forward determinedly...with or without the help of the legislature,” Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, told a meeting of his Socialist Party earlier last month. To his more excitable critics, this sounded like a declaration of dictatorship. In fact, it was a recognition of his embattled circumstances. In office since 2018, Mr Sánchez is the great survivor of European politics, a wily and ruthless tactician. But his minority coalition government rules at the pleasure of Catalan and Basque radical nationalists, and at a growing cost to the quality of Spain’s democracy and its institutions.
西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯上个月早些时候在社会党会议上表示: “无论有没有立法机关的帮助，我们都将坚定地向前迈进。”对于他更激动的批评者来说，这听起来像是独裁宣言。事实上，这是对他陷入困境的认识。自2018年上任以来，桑切斯先生是欧洲政治的伟大幸存者， 是一位狡猾而冷酷的战术家。但他的少数派联合政府的统治受到了加泰罗尼亚和巴斯克激进民族主义者的欢迎，而西班牙民主及其制度的 质量却日益受到损害。
After the left took a drubbing in local elections, Mr Sánchez called a snap national poll in July 2023. The mainstream conservative People’s Party (PP) won, but even with the support of Vox, a hard-right outfit, fell six short of a majority of the 350 seats in parliament. Rejecting the broad coalition with the PP that many voters preferred, Mr Sánchez instead decided to carry on by stitching together the backing of eight assorted parties.
左翼在地方选举中惨败后，桑切斯先生于 2023 年 7 月召开了一次全国民意调查。主流保守派人民党 ( PP ) 获胜，但即使有极右翼组织 Vox 的支持，仍落后 6 名。议会350个席位中的多数席位。桑切斯先生拒绝 了许多选民所青睐的与人民党的广泛联盟，而是决定继续联合八个不同政党的支持。
One of those was Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, a former Catalan regional president who has been a fugitive from justice since an illegal bid to break away from Spain in 2017. His price was an amnesty for all those involved in the independence bid. Mr Sánchez had always opposed this. But he complied, ramming it through parliament by five votes.
其中之一是加泰罗尼亚前主席卡莱斯·普伊格德蒙特 (Carles Puigdemont) 的政党“联合党”(Junts)，他自 2017 年非法企图脱离西班牙以来一直逍遥法外。他的代价是对所有参与独立活动的人进行大赦。 桑切斯先生一直反对这一点。但他还是照办了，并以五票之差在议会 通过了该法案。
卡莱斯·普伊格德蒙特 图源:politico.eu
Now he is poised to offer another concession to Catalan nationalism. In return for securing the installation of Salvador Illa, a Socialist, as the regional president in Barcelona, Mr Sánchez promised Esquerra, another separatist party, what amounts to fiscal sovereignty for Catalonia, one of Spain’s richest regions. As with the amnesty, this is a “constitutional reform through the back door”, as a sceptical former Socialist minister puts it. Since it means less money for the common pot, it has aroused more grumbling than the amnesty.
现在，他准备向加泰罗尼亚民族主义做出另一次让步。作为确保社会 党人萨尔瓦多·伊拉 (Salvador Illa) 就任巴塞罗那地区主席的回报，桑 切斯先生向另一个分离主义政党 Esquerra 承诺，这相当于西班牙最富 裕地区之一加泰罗尼亚的财政主权。与特赦一样，正如一位持怀疑态 度的前社会党部长所说，这是一次“通过后门进行的宪法改革”。由于 这意味着普通锅的钱会减少，因此它引起的抱怨比特赦还要多。
The amnesty is the only important measure the government has got through parliament in its ten months in office. It failed to win approval for this year’s budget and is unlikely to do so for next year. To make matters worse, Begoña Gómez, the prime minister’s wife, is being investigated by a judge. She denies wrongdoing, and Mr Sánchez claims she is a victim of political persecution. But many question how she obtained university posts for which she is not obviously qualified. In a seemingly ill-advised step, she signed a letter of support for a friend bidding for a government contract. When this scandal broke, rather than apologise, Mr Sánchez blamed the “far right” and said he was considering whether political life was worth it. He subjected Spaniards to a five day “period of reflection”, only to resume work.
此次特赦是政府上任十个月以来议会通过的唯一重要措施。今年的预 算未能获得批准，明年也不太可能获得批准。更糟糕的是，首相的妻子贝戈尼亚·戈麦斯正在接受法官的调查。她否认有不当行为，桑切斯先生声称她是政治迫害的受害者。但许多人质疑她是如何获得她显然 不具备资格的大学职位的。她为一位竞标政府合同的朋友签署了一封 支持信，这看似不明智。当这起丑闻爆发时，桑切斯没有道歉，而是指责“极右翼”，并表示他正在考虑政治生活是否值得。他让西班牙人经历了五天的“反思期”，然后才恢复工作。
桑切斯与贝戈尼亚·戈麦斯 图源:zozpopuli.com
None of this means he is in imminent danger. Unseating a Spanish prime minister requires assembling a parliamentary majority for an alternative, a harder challenge than just winning a no-confidence vote in parliament, as is the case in many other countries. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP’s leader, recently told El Mundo, a newspaper, that a censure motion was “as essential as it is impossible”. Although some senior Socialists privately express disquiet with the concessions to separatists, only a couple do so in public. Mr Sánchez has an iron grip on his party which resembles a fan club, says one member.
这些并不意味着他面临迫在眉睫的危险。罢免西班牙首相需要在议会 中获得多数席位以寻求替代方案，这比在议会中赢得不信任投票更为艰巨，就像许多其他国家的情况一样。人民党领导人阿尔贝托·努涅斯· 费霍 (Alberto Núñez Feijóo) 最近向《世界报》表示，谴责动议“既必要 又不可能”。尽管一些高级社会党人私下对向分离主义者让步表示不安，但只有少数人在公开场合这样做。一名成员表示，桑切斯先生对 他的政党有着铁一般的控制，这就像一个粉丝俱乐部。
The prime minister can point to achievements. Since 2018 he has boosted the minimum wage and cut the abuse of temporary contracts without hurting employment, which is growing fast. He has expanded vocational training. After suffering worse than its neighbours in the pandemic, the economy has grown at more than double the euro-zone average since 2023. Some of the growth comes from a post-pandemic boom in tourism, which shows signs of faltering, and some from the EU’s covid-recovery fund, which runs out in 2026, and from an expansionary fiscal policy that cannot last. But Spain has strengths that point to resilience, as Ignacio de la Torre of Arcano, an asset manager, notes: it has a relatively high savings rate and a healthy current account surplus, boosted by growing exports of services, such as data management and engineering consultancy.
首相可以指出所取得的成就。自2018年以来，他在不影响快速增长的 就业的情况下提高了最低工资并减少了临时合同的滥用。他扩大了职业培训。在经历了比邻国更严重的疫情之后，自 2023 年以来，该国经 济增长速度是欧元区平均水平的两倍多。增长的一部分来自于疫情后 旅游业的繁荣，但旅游业出现了动摇的迹象，还有一些来自欧盟的新 冠复苏基金将于 2026 年用完，而扩张性财政政策无法持续。但正如资 产管理公司 Arcano 的伊格纳西奥·德拉托雷 (Ignacio de la Torre) 指出的 那样，西班牙拥有表明韧性的优势:在数据管理和工程等服务出口不断增长的推动下，西班牙拥有相对较高的储蓄率和健康的账户盈余。
伊格纳西奥·德拉托雷 图源:Libre Uso
Mr Sánchez’s biggest asset is an ineffective and divided opposition. Mr Feijóo, formerly a successful regional president in Galicia, has struggled on the national stage. Although Vox is slowly declining, the PP’s potential dependence on its parliamentary votes means that other parties shun it. A new nativist outfit, propagated by social media and called The Party’s Over grabbed 4.6% of the vote in June’s election for the European Parliament.
桑切斯先生最大的资产是低效且分裂的反对派。费约先生曾是加利西 亚地区一位成功的地区主席，但在国家舞台上一直举步维艰。尽管 Vox正在慢慢衰落，但人民党对其议会选票的潜在依赖意味着其他政党对其敬而远之。在社交媒体上宣传的一个名为“政党结束”的新本土主义团体在 6 月份的欧洲议会选举中获得了 4.6% 的选票。
Many in Madrid think Mr Sánchez can last out a full term until 2027. But the lack of a budget may narrow his options. If the right remains split three ways and with the economy strong, he may be tempted to call an election next summer, thinks Cristina Monge, a political scientist.
马德里的许多人认为桑切斯先生的任期可以持续到 2027 年。但缺乏预算可能会缩小他的选择范围。政治学家克里斯蒂娜·蒙日(Cristina Monge)认为，如果右翼仍然分成三派，而且经济强劲，他可能会在明 年夏天举行大选。
克里斯蒂娜.蒙日 图源:fundacion.com
他对加泰罗尼亚和巴斯克民族主义者的依赖是有代价的。 “桑切斯打 破了一条不成文的规定，即如果不相信国家稳定和治理能力的政党投 票，你就不能成为总理，”人民党发言人博尔哈·森佩尔 (Borja Sémper) 表示。桑切斯先生在国家事务上的突然转变纯粹是为了保住职位，这 导致了公众对西班牙民主根深蒂固的愤世嫉俗。
He claims to have ended separatist agitation in Catalonia. Certainly, his pardoning in 2021 of nationalist leaders jailed for the breakaway bid was sensible. But he has gone further than many observers think wise. He has weakened the penal code: in documents signed with Junts and Esquerra, his party endorsed the nationalist narrative of recent history. The sweeping nature of the amnesty (which applies to rioters as well as politicians) and its narrow approval without much public debate flew in the face of the recommendations of the Venice Commission, a European consultative body on the rule of law. It still faces various legal challenges.
他声称已经结束了加泰罗尼亚的分离主义骚乱。当然，他在 2021 年赦 免因分裂而入狱的民族主义领导人是明智的。但他比许多观察家认为的更明智。他削弱了刑法:在与 Junts 和 Esquerra 签署的文件中，他 的政党认可了近代历史的民族主义叙述。这次特赦的广泛性(适用于 暴乱者和政客)及其在没有太多公开辩论的情况下获得的狭隘批准， 与欧洲法治咨询机构威尼斯委员会的建议背道而驰。它仍然面临各种 法律挑战。
加泰罗尼亚独立事件 图源:搜狐
桑切斯先生还让政治任命人员担任所谓的独立职位，例如宪法法庭和 西班牙银行。他已指示州律师起诉调查他妻子的法官。 “传统上，西 班牙在制衡方面存在一些弱点，”法治活动人士埃莉萨·德拉努埃斯 (Elisa de la Nuez)表示。 “近年来，情况变得更糟。”
The prime minister did not invent the political fragmentation that makes the country so hard to govern. He could argue that he is adapting the political system to changed realities, especially in Catalonia. Others see a shift towards an ill-defined confederation, and tactical tinkering while the country drifts. ■
导致国家如此难以治理的政治分裂并不是首相发明的。他可能会辩称，他正在调整政治制度以适应变化的现实，尤其是在加泰罗尼亚。 其他人则认为，联盟正在向一个定义不明确的方向转变，并且在国家 摇摆不定的同时进行战术调整。 ■
