Volkswagen’s woes illustrate Germany’s creeping deindustrialisation

And intensify the problems of Olaf Scholz’s fractious coalition
并加剧了奥拉夫·朔尔茨的暴躁联盟的问题

2024年10月31日 01:06 下午 |柏林

THE SPECTRE of deindustrialisation has long haunted Germany. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused energy prices to spiral. The economy of Germany’s biggest trading partner, China, has slowed. And as competitors, Chinese carmakers are proving more than a handful for Europe’s biggest, Volkswagen (VW). Now the apparition looks worryingly solid. “The signs of deindustrialisation are becoming clearer,” warned Martin Wansleben, head of the German chamber of trade and industry (DIHK), on October 29th.

去工业化的幽灵长期以来一直困扰着德国。俄罗斯于2022年全面入侵乌克兰，导致能源价格螺旋式上升。德国最大贸易伙伴中国的经济已经放缓。作为欧洲最大的大众汽车公司的竞争对手，中国汽车制造商的实力不容小觑。现在这个幻影看起来坚固得令人担忧。德国贸易工业商会（DIHK）会长马丁·万斯莱本（Martin Wansleben）10月29日警告说：“去工业化的迹象正变得更加明显。”

马丁.万斯莱本 图源:deutschlandfunk.de

The most alarming sign so far came the previous day, when Daniela Cavallo, the main official representing VW’s workers, said that the company would close at least three factories in Germany, cut tens of thousands of jobs (30,000, rumours say) and slash pay by 10% (18% for some). VW’s bosses, who have been talking to labour representatives for weeks, have not yet confirmed this. But if the factory closures do go ahead, they will be the 87-year-old carmaker’s first in its home country. On October 30th VW reported a slump in net profit of 64%, year on year, in the third quarter, attributable mainly to weak sales of its cars in China.

迄今为止最令人震惊的迹象出现在前一天，当时代表大众工人的主要官员丹妮拉·卡瓦洛(Daniela Cavallo)表示，该公司将关闭在德国的至少三家工厂，裁员数万人（传闻称3万人）并大幅削减工资10%（有些人为 18%）。大众汽车的老板们已经与劳工代表进行了数周的交谈，但尚未证实这一点。但如果工厂确实关闭，这将是这家拥有 87 年历史的汽车制造商在本国的第一家工厂。10月30日，大众公布第三季度净利润同比下滑64%，主要原因是其汽车在中国的销售疲软。

丹妮拉·卡瓦洛 图源:industriall-union.org

This follows months of similarly spine-chilling news. In February Miele, a maker of household appliances, said it would move some production to Poland. which will affect 700 jobs in Gütersloh in North Rhine-Westphalia, the headquarters of the 125-year-old family business. Continental, an automotive supplier, is cutting 7,000 jobs and closing sites. Michelin, a French tyremaker, is slashing 1,500 jobs in Germany and closing factories. And in July ZF Friedrichshafen, another German auto supplier, said that by 2028 it would shed 14,000 jobs.

在此之前的几个月里，类似的令人毛骨悚然的消息不断出现。二月，家用电器制造商 Miele 表示将把部分生产转移到波兰。这将影响北莱茵-威斯特法伦州居特斯洛的 700 个工作岗位，这里是这家拥有 125 年历史的家族企业的总部。汽车供应商大陆集团正在裁员 7,000 人并关闭工厂。法国轮胎制造商米其林正在德国裁员 1,500 人并关闭工厂。7 月，另一家德国汽车供应商采埃孚 (ZF Friedrichshafen) 表示，到 2028 年将裁员 14,000 人。

A new survey by Mr Wansleben’s DIHK is full of frightening figures. It finds that one-third of all companies and two-fifths of industrial firms surveyed are planning to reduce investment in Germany. A mere 19% of industrial firms rate their current situation as “good”, while 35% call it “bad”. Such pessimism reminds Mr Wansleben of the severe crisis in 2002-03. The government of the day responded with Agenda 2010, a package of successful liberalising reforms.

万斯莱本先生的 DIHK 进行的一项新调查充满了可怕的数字。调查发现，三分之一的受访企业和五分之二的工业企业正计划减少在德国的投资。只有 19% 的工业企业将其当前状况评价为“良好”，而 35% 的工业企业则认为其现状为“糟糕”。这种悲观情绪让万斯莱本先生想起了2002-03年的严重危机。当时的政府以《2010 年议程》作为回应，这是一揽子成功的自由化改革。

Earlier this year Moritz Schularick, head of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research body, predicted that only a crisis at a big carmaker would be enough to convince today’s governing coalition that Germany cannot continue with its old manufacturing-based economic model. “Perhaps VW’s problems are at last the call that we have waited for,” says Mr Schularick now.

今年早些时候，研究机构基尔世界经济研究所所长莫里茨·舒拉里克(Moritz Schularick)预测，只有大型汽车制造商发生危机，才足以让当今的执政联盟相信，德国无法继续其旧有的以制造业为基础的经济模式。“也许大众汽车的问题终于是我们等待的电话了，”舒拉里克先生现在说道。

Perhaps, perhaps not. On October 29th Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, held a “summit” to discuss ways of alleviating industry’s troubles with senior business figures, including Oliver Blume, the boss of VW, and the heads of Siemens and BASF, giants of engineering and chemicals, as well as union leaders.

也许，也许不是。10 月 29 日，德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨 (Olaf Scholz) 与大众集团老板奥利弗·布鲁姆 (Oliver Blume) 以及工程和化工巨头西门子和巴斯夫的负责人等商界高层人士召开了“峰会”，讨论缓解工业困境的方法。以及工会领导人。

Little is known about what was discussed, besides help with the high price of electricity and a plan to cut red tape by scrapping a law obliging big firms to monitor whether their suppliers around the world meet human-rights and environmental standards. More could be done, for instance to promote decarbonisation and digitisation. Yet the governing coalition of Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats is so dysfunctional that it is doubtful whether it will, or can, do anything much.

除了帮助解决高电价问题以及通过废除一项要求大公司监督其全球供应商是否符合人权和环境标准的法律来减少繁文缛节的计划之外，人们对讨论的内容知之甚少。可以做更多的事情，例如促进脱碳和数字化。然而，由朔尔茨先生领导的社会民主党、绿党和自由民主党组成的执政联盟功能失调，以至于人们怀疑它是否会或能够做任何事情。

Mr Scholz had convened his summit without telling either Christian Lindner, his liberal finance minister, or Robert Habeck, his Green economy minister. Mr Lindner then held his own summit on the same day; Mr Habeck proclaimed that he was “climbing summits every day” and floated the idea of a debt-financed investment fund to aid business that he had not discussed with the chancellor.

朔尔茨先生在没有告诉他的自由派财政部长克里斯蒂安·林德纳(Christian Lindner)和他的绿色经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克(Robert Habeck)的情况下召开了峰会。林德纳先生随后在同一天举行了自己的峰会。哈贝克宣称他“每天都在攀登高峰”，并提出了建立债务融资投资基金来援助企业的想法，但他尚未与总理讨论过这一想法。

The chancellor’s select group is due to convene again on November 15th, the day after the deadline for agreement on next year’s budget. But negotiations between the governing parties have been so acrimonious that they could break the coalition. Against that backdrop, the chances of anything as effective as Agenda 2010 are remote indeed. ■

总理的选定小组将于 11 月 15 日再次召开会议，即就明年预算达成一致的最后期限的第二天。但执政党之间的谈判非常激烈，有可能导致联合政府破裂。在此背景下，像《2010 年议程》这样有效的举措的可能性确实很小。■