Europe’s green trade restrictions are infuriating poor countries

Only the poorest can expect help to cushion the blow
只有最贫穷的人才能指望得到帮助来缓解打击

10月 10, 2024 08:23 上午

WHEN AID donors helped fund the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique, the goal was to help that southern African country build up its economy after a civil war. In a country with income per head of just over $600, the Mozal smelter is the largest industrial employer. Yet now the lofty aim to help poor countries grow risks falling foul of rich countries’ urge to decarbonise their economies and protect domestic manufacturing.

WHEN AID 捐助者帮助资助了莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝冶炼厂，目标是帮助这个南部非洲国家在内战后建立经济。在一个人均收入略高于 600 美元的国家，Mozal 冶炼厂是最大的工业雇主。然而，现在，帮助贫穷国家发展的崇高目标有可能与富裕国家实现经济脱碳和保护国内制造业的愿望背道而驰。

More than half of Mozambique’s aluminium exports head to the EU. From 2026 the bloc’s importers of the metal will have to pay a levy under its carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), a scheme designed to ensure that certain energy-intensive imports to the EU pay the same carbon price as industry within it. At present CBAM is at a pilot stage in which importers have to submit reports on the embedded carbon in their imports, but do not yet have to buy permits. Eventually they will have to pay the difference between any carbon price paid at home and the cost of a permit in the EU’s own emissions-trading system (ETS), currently priced at €62 ($68) per tonne of carbon-dioxide equivalent.

莫桑比克一半以上的铝出口销往欧盟。从 2026 年起，欧盟的金属进口商将不得不根据其碳边境调整机制 （CBAM） 支付税款，该计划旨在确保某些进口到欧盟的能源密集型产品支付与欧盟内部工业相同的碳价格。目前，CBAM 处于试点阶段，进口商必须提交有关其进口中嵌入碳的报告，但尚不必购买许可证。最终，他们将不得不支付在国内支付的任何碳价格与欧盟自己的排放交易系统 （ETS） 的许可证费用之间的差额，目前的价格为每吨二氧化碳当量 62 欧元（68 美元）。

The levy pits the development of poorer countries’ industrial capacity against the EU’s decarbonisation goals. The scheme is linked to the removal of free emissions allowances for heavy industry in the ETS. CBAM seeks to prevent “carbon leakage”: businesses will no longer gain a competitive advantage from importing goods from outside the bloc that do not pay a carbon price, or from moving production elsewhere. Poorer economies object that such measures are unfair trade barriers that put the onus of decarbonisation on countries that have contributed little to the problem. South Africa and India, among others, are considering complaints to the World Trade Organisation about CBAM.

该税将较贫穷国家工业产能的发展与欧盟的脱碳目标对立起来。该计划与取消 ETS 中重工业的免费排放配额有关。CBAM 旨在防止“碳泄漏”：企业将不再通过从欧盟以外进口不支付碳价的商品或将生产转移到其他地方来获得竞争优势。较贫穷的经济体反对这些措施是不公平的贸易壁垒，将脱碳的责任推给了对这个问题贡献不大的国家。南非和印度等国正在考虑向世界贸易组织投诉 CBAM。

CBAM is just one way in which European environmentalism is extending its reach. Exporters will eventually have to contend with a deforestation directive, under which firms must prove their products were not produced on land that was forest before 2021, and a corporate-sustainability directive, forcing businesses to disclose emissions through their supply chains.

CBAM 只是欧洲环保主义扩大其影响力的一种方式。出口商最终将不得不应对一项森林砍伐指令，根据该指令，公司必须证明他们的产品不是在 2021 年之前的森林土地上生产的，以及一项企业可持续发展指令，迫使企业披露其供应链中的排放情况。

In aggregate, the hit to poorer countries from CBAM is small. A study by the African Climate Foundation and the LSE Firoz Lalji Institute estimates that the scheme would lower African GDP by just 0.91%, as most of the affected goods would find their way to other markets.

总的来说，CBAM 对较贫穷国家的打击很小。非洲气候基金会和伦敦政治经济学院 Firoz Lalji 研究所的一项研究估计，该计划只会使非洲 GDP 下降 0.91%，因为大多数受影响的商品都会流向其他市场。

伦敦政治经济学院 图源:百度

Yet some countries would be hit hard. Around 90% of Zimbabwe’s iron and steel exports, for instance, go to the EU. A World Bank study suggests that India, Russia and Ukraine are likely to have the greatest exposure, based on a combination of the carbon-intensity of their exports and their dependence on trade with the EU. Ukraine may be exempt from the charges under force-majeure clauses because of the Russian invasion.

然而，一些国家将受到沉重打击。例如，津巴布韦大约 90% 的钢铁出口销往欧盟。世界银行的一项研究表明，印度、俄罗斯和乌克兰的出口碳强度和对欧盟贸易的依赖程度相结合，它们可能面临最大的风险敞口。由于战争，乌克兰可能免于根据不可抗力条款受到指控。

Carbon border taxes are not limited to the EU. Britain and Australia are among those considering something similar. Several proposals for such taxes are making their way through America’s Congress. A proposed Foreign Pollution Fee Act would make importers pay a fee based on the difference between the average carbon intensity of a product made in the exporting country and in America. Another, known as the Clean Competition Act, would combine a carbon border adjustment with a domestic price.

碳边境税不仅限于欧盟。英国和澳大利亚也在考虑采取类似措施。美国国会正在通过几项此类税收提案。拟议的《外国污染费法案》将要求进口商根据出口国和美国制造的产品的平均碳强度之间的差异支付费用。另一项被称为《清洁竞争法案》（Clean Competition Act），将碳边境调整与国内价格相结合。

Poorer countries argue that CBAM and the like fail to account for the requirement under the Paris climate-change agreement for rich countries to do more to decarbonise than poor ones. The logic for this is that carbon is a production input that should be priced differently in different contexts. An aluminium smelter in Sweden ought to pay a higher price than one in Mozambique, as Swedes have already used up more of the world’s carbon budget.

较贫穷的国家认为，CBAM 等未能考虑到巴黎气候变化协定要求富裕国家比穷国采取更多措施来脱碳。其逻辑是，碳是一种生产投入，在不同情况下应该有不同的定价。瑞典的铝冶炼厂应该比莫桑比克的铝冶炼厂付出更高的价格，因为瑞典已经用掉了世界碳预算的更多。

The EU is still wondering how to respond to poorer countries’ criticisms. Pascal Lamy, a former EU trade commissioner, has suggested a bespoke aid package for Mozambique. The country relies heavily on low-carbon hydroelectric power, but the Mozal smelter must import electricity through South Africa’s coal-heavy grid. European development assistance could be used to ensure that Mozal is CBAM-compliant. Another option may be to recycle a portion of the revenues into international climate finance.

欧盟仍在思考如何回应较贫穷国家的批评。前欧盟贸易专员帕斯卡尔·拉米（Pascal Lamy）建议为莫桑比克定制一揽子援助计划。该国严重依赖低碳水力发电，但 Mozal 冶炼厂必须通过南非的重煤电网进口电力。欧洲发展援助可用于确保 Mozal 符合 CBAM 标准。另一种选择可能是将部分收入回收用于国际气候融资。

帕斯卡尔.拉米 图源:brunswickgroup.com

Middle-income countries may just have to cope. Any repatriated revenue will be far smaller than the funding needed to offset the lost trade. Some are launching their own emissions-trading systems—such as Turkey, which exports electricity to the EU. China recently added steel, aluminium and cement to its own carbon market, mirroring CBAM. India, meanwhile, is considering taxing high-carbon exports destined for the EU, keeping for itself revenue that the bloc would otherwise collect. Many Europeans will cheer that outcome, even if they have to pay higher prices. Workers in the developing world will not.■

中等收入国家可能不得不应对。任何汇回的收入都将远远少于抵消损失交易所需的资金。一些国家正在推出自己的排放交易体系，例如向欧盟出口电力的土耳其。中国最近将钢铁、铝和水泥纳入了自己的碳市场，效仿了碳边境调节机制。与此同时，印度正在考虑对运往欧盟的高碳出口征税，以保留欧盟本应收取的收入。许多欧洲人会为这个结果欢呼，即使他们不得不付出更高的代价。发展中国家的工人不会。