Donald Trump is bad news for German business

But some companies will be hit much harder than others
但有些公司受到的打击会比其他公司严重得多

2024年11月14日 08:53 上午 |柏林

GERMAN BOSSES can’t catch a break. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago their firms have been pummelled by surging energy prices, slowing demand in China, stiffening competition, fractious workers and a dysfunctional (though soon to be ousted) government. Shares in German companies have risen by just 2% since the start of 2022, compared with 16% for those in rich countries as a whole (see chart). Now they are wringing their hands over Donald Trump’s return to power.

德国老板们不能休息。自近三年前俄乌战争开始以来，这些公司一直受到能源价格飙升、中国需求放缓、竞争加剧、脾气暴躁的工人和功能失调（尽管很快将被赶下台）政府的打击。自 2022 年初以来，德国公司的股价仅上涨了 2%，而富裕国家的股价整体上涨了 16%（见图表）。现在，他们正为唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)重新掌权而绞尽脑汁。

German businesses have much at stake. America is by far their biggest export market. Last year Germany shipped $160bn-worth of goods there, and imported $77bn-worth in return. Only China, Mexico and Vietnam have larger trade surpluses with America. That will put German businesses squarely in Mr Trump’s protectionist cross-hairs. Shortly after the American election theBDI, Germany’s main industry association, warned that, with Mr Trump back in the White House, “the tone will become harsher and the protectionist course will consistently be pursued.” The Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich has estimated that German exports to America could drop by as much as 15% if the president-elect sticks with his promise of slapping a tariff of 10-20% on all imports.

德国企业面临着很大的利害关系。美国是迄今为止他们最大的出口市场。去年，德国向该国出口了价值 1600 亿美元的商品，并进口了价值 770 亿美元的商品。只有中国、墨西哥和越南对美国的贸易顺差较大。这将使德国企业直接成为特朗普保护主义的目标。美国大选后不久，德国主要行业协会 BDI 警告称，随着特朗普重返白宫，“语气将变得更加严厉，保护主义路线将持续下去。”慕尼黑伊福经济研究所估计，如果当选总统兑现对所有进口产品征收 10-20% 关税的承诺，德国对美国的出口可能会下降多达 15%。

Germany’s bosses may take solace from three things. The first is that Mr Trump often blusters, and much of what he has said will not come to pass. “Nobody knows what lies ahead with theWundertüte[bag of surprises] Trump,” says Michael Hüther, head of the German Economic Institute, a think-tank in Cologne. In 2018 Mr Trump imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminium, but he stopped short of a wider trade war with the continent. A 25% tariff on European cars that he threatened during his first term was never imposed.

德国老板们可以从三件事中得到安慰。首先，特朗普经常咆哮，他所说的很多话都不会实现。科隆智库德国经济研究所所长迈克尔·胡瑟 (Michael Hüther) 表示：“没有人知道特朗普的 Wundertüte（惊喜袋）会带来什么。” 2018年，特朗普对欧洲钢铁和铝征收关税，但他没有与欧洲大陆展开更广泛的贸易战。他在第一个任期内威胁对欧洲汽车征收 25% 的关税从未被实施。

迈克尔·胡瑟 图源:rp-online.de

However hard Germany is hit with tariffs, China is bound to be hit harder still—a second source of consolation for DeutschlandAG. Mr Trump has spoken of imposing a 60% levy on imports from China, which compete with those from Germany in industries ranging from white goods to machinery. German goods should also become relatively more attractive to customers in America as the dollar strengthens, thanks to expectations that a Trumpian cocktail of tariffs and tax cuts will rekindle inflation and keep interest rates elevated.

无论德国受到关税打击有多严重，ZG也必然会受到更严重的打击——这是德国股份公司的第二个安慰来源。特朗普曾谈到对来自ZG的进口产品征收 60% 的关税，这些产品在从白色家电到机械等行业与德国产品展开竞争。随着美元走强，德国商品对美国消费者的吸引力也应该相对更大，因为人们预期特朗普式的关税和减税组合将重燃通胀并保持利率高位。

Perhaps the biggest source of comfort, at least for some German businesses, will be the investments they have already made to manufacture more of their wares in America. Lured by the country’s relatively cheap energy and the lavish subsidies on offer through the Inflation Reduction Act, German companies announced almost $16bn of investments in America last year, roughly double the previous year’s level and far in excess of the $6bn they pledged to China, according to fDi Intelligence, a data provider. Investments in America accounted for 15% of the total by German businesses abroad in 2023, compared with 6% the year before.

也许最大的安慰来源，至少对于一些德国企业来说，将是他们已经为在美国生产更多产品而进行的投资。受美国相对便宜的能源和《通胀削减法案》提供的巨额补贴的吸引，德国公司去年宣布在美国投资近 160 亿美元，大约是前一年水平的两倍，远远超过他们向ZG承诺的 60 亿美元。据数据提供商 fDi Intelligence 称，2023年，德国企业对美国的投资占海外投资总额的15%，而前一年为6%。

On the campaign trail Mr Trump declared, “I want German car companies to become American car companies. I want them to build their plants here.” They have already done that. Last year German carmakers manufactured 900,000 cars in America, half of which were exported, according to theVDA, a lobby group for Germany’s auto industry. That is more than double the 400,000 they exported to America.BMW employs 11,000 people at its plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina—one of its largest. Mercedes-Benz has 6,100 workers at its factory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Volkswagen employs 5,500 in Chattanooga, Tennessee. It would be costly to reconfigure these plants to replace imported models hit by tariffs, but doing so could help lessen the blow (though not for workers back home or in Mexico, where a number of German carmakers also have factories). The day after the election Oliver Zipse, the boss ofBMW, mused that American tariffs may even give his firm an advantage over rivals thanks to its large footprint in the country.

特朗普在竞选过程中宣称：“我希望德国汽车公司成为美国汽车公司。我希望他们在这里建厂。”他们已经这么做了。据德国汽车工业游说团体 VDA 称，去年德国汽车制造商在美国生产了 90 万辆汽车，其中一半用于出口。这是他们出口到美国的 40 万辆的两倍多。宝马位于南卡罗来纳州斯帕坦堡的工厂拥有 11,000 名员工，是宝马最大的工厂之一。梅赛德斯-奔驰位于阿拉巴马州塔斯卡卢萨的工厂拥有 6,100 名工人。大众汽车在田纳西州查塔努加拥有 5,500 名员工。重新配置这些工厂以替换受关税影响的进口车型成本高昂，但这样做可能有助于减轻打击（尽管对家乡或墨西哥的工人来说不是这样，因为许多德国汽车制造商也在墨西哥设有工厂）。大选后的第二天，宝马公司老板奥利弗·齐普策 (Oliver Zipse) 沉思道，美国的关税甚至可能让他的公司比竞争对手更具优势，因为该公司在该国的影响力很大。

Germany’s smaller manufacturers, collectively known as theMittelstand, will not be so lucky. Few of them have the scale necessary to set up a factory in America. Germany’s machinery industry exports around 14% of its production to the country, says Karl Haeusgen, chairman of Hawe, a maker of hydraulic pumps, who used to lead the association of machinery makers (VDMA). Roughly 90% of theVDMA’s member firms have fewer than 250 employees. Germany’s bosses are right to worry about the return of Mr Trump—but some stand to lose more than others.■

德国规模较小的制造商（统称为“中小型企业”）就没有那么幸运了。他们中很少有人具备在美国建厂所需的规模。液压泵制造商 Hawe 董事长、机械制造商协会 (VDMA) 前任主席卡尔·霍伊斯根 (Karl Haeusgen) 表示，德国机械工业约 14% 的产品出口到该国。大约 90% 的 VDMA 成员公司员工人数不足 250 人。德国老板们对特朗普回归的担忧是正确的——但有些人的损失可能会比其他人更大。 ■