Can Japan’s toilet technology crack global markets?

The leading maker of electronic bidets shows the difficulties facing Japanese companies abroad
领先的电子坐浴盆制造商揭示了日本企业在海外面临的困难

2024年10月31日 01:06 下午

THE PAST century has been one of relentless innovation. But in the West the humble toilet is a curious exception. By the early 20th century, free-standing flush toilets with U-bend plumbing were being installed in homes on both sides of the Atlantic. Americans and Europeans seem to think that the model is still more or less good enough.

上个世纪是不断创新的世纪。但在西方，简陋的厕所是一个奇怪的例外。到 20 世纪初期，大西洋两岸的家庭都开始安装带有 U 型弯管道的独立式抽水马桶。美国人和欧洲人似乎认为这个模式或多或少还是足够好了。

Not the Japanese. Electronic toilets are standard in homes and hotels—and a marvel to visiting Westerners. Toto, by its own estimation the world’s largest maker of bathroom fixtures, has led the technological vanguard. Its “washlet”, first sold in 1980, features directed jets of water and air (pick your temperature), heated seats and deodorisers. The firm is listed in Tokyo, valued at ¥779bn ($5bn).

不是日本人。电子马桶是家庭和酒店的标准配备，这对来访的西方人来说是一个奇迹。据 Toto 自己估计，它是世界上最大的浴室设备制造商，处于技术先锋地位。它的“卫洗丽”于 1980 年首次销售，配备定向水流和空气喷射（选择您的温度）、加热座椅和除臭器。该公司在东京上市，估值 7790 亿日元（50 亿美元）。

Toto, which still makes about two-thirds of its sales at home, is keen to bring foreign toilets up to date (or at least into the Japan of 40 years ago). But like other Japanese firms, it is encountering two big difficulties.

Toto 的销售额仍有约三分之二来自国内，该公司热衷于将外国马桶引进最新技术（或至少引进 40 年前的日本）。但与其他日本公司一样，它也遇到了两大困难。

The first is Japan’s “Galapagos syndrome”: many goods developed and sold there go no further. The world’s fourth-largest economy is big enough to support all sorts of indigenous products, from phones to toilets. But stagnating incomes and a declining population make it an unreliable market. On October 28th Toto’s third-quarter results undershot investors’ expectations. The company cut its sales forecast for this fiscal year from ¥750bn to ¥730bn. Its share price fell by 13% the next day.

第一个是日本的“加拉帕戈斯综合症”：许多在那里开发和销售的商品没有进一步发展。这个世界第四大经济体的规模足以支持从电话到厕所的各种本土产品。但收入停滞和人口下降使其成为一个不可靠的市场。10月28日，东陶第三季度业绩低于投资者预期。该公司将本财年的销售预期从 7500 亿日元下调至 7300 亿日元。次日其股价下跌13%。

The second difficulty relates to China, which at the end of 2022 yielded 17% of Toto’s sales, but provides just 10% today. It now looks like a busted flush. The freefall in Chinese property investment, down 10% so far this year, after similar declines in 2022 and 2023, means fewer new buildings and bathrooms. Domestic rivals have also appeared.

第二个困难与中国有关，截至 2022 年底，中国占 Toto 销售额的 17%，但如今仅占 10%。现在看起来就像是坏掉的冲水马桶。继 2022 年和 2023 年出现类似下降之后，中国房地产投资今年迄今已大幅下降 10%，这意味着新建筑和浴室的数量减少。国内的竞争对手也已经出现。

There is light at the end of the U-bend. Sales are up in South-East Asia and India. And revenue from the Americas soared by 34%, year on year, in the six months to September, accounting for a tenth of the company’s total.

U 形弯的尽头有光。东南亚和印度的销售额有所上升。截至9月份的六个月内，来自美洲的收入同比猛增34%，占该公司总收入的十分之一。

Toto’s toilets face some blockages in America, though. The most acute, notes James Lin, founder of BidetKing.com, an online marketplace, is electricity for the seat. Most American bathrooms have a power source near the sink, but not near the cistern. Even new homes are not always suitably equipped.

不过，托托的厕所在美国面临一些堵塞问题。在线市场 BidetKing.com 的创始人 James Lin 指出，最尖锐的问题是座椅的电力。大多数美国浴室的电源靠近水槽，但不靠近水箱。即使是新房也不一定配备合适的设施。

Still, the flow is in the right direction. During the pandemic fears of toilet-paper shortages, worries about hygiene and the growth of DIY gave the market a jump-start. Returning tourists may also help. Americans made more than 2m trips to Japan in 2023, up from 1.7m in 2019. Another record is likely this year—adding to the convenience-converted. ■

尽管如此，潮流的方向是正确的。在大流行期间，人们对卫生纸短缺的担忧、对卫生的担忧以及 DIY 的增长让市场迅速启动。回国的游客也可能有所帮助。2023 年，美国人前往日本的次数超过 200 万人次，高于 2019 年的 170 万人次。今年可能会再创纪录——增加便利性。■