The West still needs Russian gas that comes through Ukraine
Austria, Hungary and Slovakia are particularly dependent on it
奥地利、匈牙利和斯洛伐克尤其依赖它
2024年9月05日 09:22 上午
WHEN UKRAINIAN forces stormed into Russia early in August, Europe’s energy markets took fright. Russia’s gas exports to the EU are a fraction of what they once were. Still, news that Ukraine had captured Sudzha—a town in Russia that hosts its last major terminal for exporting the fuel to Europe via Ukraine—was enough to send the continent’s benchmark gas price to its highest level this year.
当乌克兰军队在8月初冲进俄罗斯时，欧洲的能源市场吓了一跳。现在，俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气出口量已经大幅减少。不过，乌克兰占领了苏兹达尔这个小镇——这是最后一个通过乌克兰向欧洲出口天然气的重要中转站——这条消息让欧洲的基准天然气价格飙升到了今年的新高。
Ukraine and Russia have agreed—for now—to keep gas moving through Sudzha. But whether it will continue next year is less certain. The deal whereby Russian gas is delivered westward via Ukraine was signed by the two countries alongside the EU in 2019. It is due to expire at the end of this year. The EU, which aims to phase out Russian gas by 2027, does not want to renew it. Nor does Ukraine. “We don’t want to extend the gas contract,” said Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, in July. “We don’t want them making money here.”
乌克兰和俄罗斯目前同意继续通过苏兹达输送天然气，但明年能不能继续就不太确定了。2019年，乌克兰、俄罗斯和欧盟签了一份协议，让俄罗斯的天然气通过乌克兰向西输送，这个协议年底就到期了。欧盟希望到2027年逐步停止使用俄罗斯的天然气，所以他们不想续签这个合同，乌克兰也一样。“我们不想延长这个天然气合同，”乌克兰总统泽连斯基在七月说，“我们可不想让他们在这里赚钱。”
Europe’s transition away from Russian energy has been fairly smooth. In 2023 just 8% of the bloc’s pipeline imports were from Russia, compared with 40% before the war. New supplies, especially of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America, now make up the difference. But some countries still depend heavily on Russian gas and would be hurt by a sudden end to supplies via Ukraine. EU officials are worried.
欧洲逐渐摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖进展得相当顺利。2023年，欧盟管道进口中只有8%来自俄罗斯，而在战争前这个比例是40%。现在，美国的液化天然气（LNG）等新供应填补了这一缺口。不过，有些国家仍然很依赖俄罗斯的天然气，如果乌克兰的供应突然停止，它们会受到很大影响。欧盟官员对此感到担忧。
Three countries are most at risk. Russian supplies made up around 47% of Hungary’s gas imports in 2023. For Slovakia they made up 89%. Austria depended even more: in January 97% of its gas imports were from Russia. Some of this gas, particularly Hungary’s, comes by TurkStream, a pipeline to the Balkans, and will continue next year. But the lion’s share still passes through Ukraine. “They’re really not in a great position,” says a European diplomat.
有三个国家的风险最大。2023年，俄罗斯供应占匈牙利天然气进口的约47%，而斯洛伐克则高达89%。奥地利更是依赖得厉害：今年1月，他们97%的天然气进口都是来自俄罗斯。其中一些天然气，特别是匈牙利的，是通过“土耳其溪”管道输送到巴尔干半岛，并且明年还会继续。但大部分还是要经过乌克兰。“他们的处境真的不太好，”一位欧洲外交官说。
This trio of countries are hooked on Russian gas thanks to geography. Whereas Germany and Italy have offshore terminals for shipments of LNG, Hungary, Slovakia and Austria are landlocked and rely on pipelines designed to carry gas from east to west. For Austria, where a number of pipelines meet, bottlenecks are less menacing. But it would be costly for Hungary and Slovakia to reverse the flow of gas to get it from the west. An expensive gas-transit levy charged by Germany was dropped this summer after complaints from the EU but deterred countries from booking orders from new suppliers.
这三个国家之所以对俄罗斯天然气依赖很大，主要是因为地理位置。德国和意大利有海上的液化天然气（LNG）接收站，而匈牙利、斯洛伐克和奥地利都是内陆国家，只能靠管道从东边输送天然气。对于管道交汇很多的奥地利来说，瓶颈问题没那么严重。但如果匈牙利和斯洛伐克想把天然气从西边调过来，那成本就会很高。今年夏天，在欧盟的投诉下，德国取消了一个昂贵的天然气过境税，但这也让其他国家不太敢向新的供应商下订单。
Local firms in the three affected countries are bound to Russia by a thicket of long-term agreements. In 2008 Slovakia’s state-owned gas company signed an import agreement with Gazprom, a Russian energy giant, which is not due to expire until 2028. In 2021 Hungary made a similar 15-year deal with Gazprom. Austria’s biggest gas firm, OMV, is tied up in a contract due to last until 2040. The cost of reneging on such deals has discouraged the trio from switching to other suppliers. Termination fees in Austria could be €1bn ($1.1bn).
这三个受影响国家的本地公司和俄罗斯之间有很多长期协议。2008年，斯洛伐克的国有天然气公司跟俄罗斯能源巨头Gazprom签了个进口协议，这个协议要到2028年才到期。匈牙利在2021年也和Gazprom签了一份为期15年的类似合同。而奥地利最大的天然气公司OMV则被一份要到2040年才结束的合同绑住。违约的成本让这三国不太敢换供应商。在奥地利，解约费可能高达10亿欧元（大约11亿美元）。
Politics are another problem. Since Russia’s invasion, Hungary’s Kremlin- friendly government has doubled down on its deal with Gazprom. Last year it even proposed to buy more Russian gas. Robert Fico, Slovakia’s prime minister, says Russian deliveries via Ukraine will continue in 2025—a claim Ukraine’s government has contradicted. Austria’s coalition government’s energy minister, who is a Green, wants OMV to break its contract with Gazprom, but so far the company won’t budge.
政治问题也是个麻烦。自从俄罗斯入侵以来，匈牙利的亲俄政府更加坚定地和Gazprom合作。去年，他们甚至提议要买更多的俄罗斯天然气。斯洛伐克总理罗伯特·菲科说，2025年俄罗斯通过乌克兰输送天然气的业务会继续，但乌克兰政府对此表示反对。奥地利联合政府里的绿党能源部长希望OMV能解约与Gazprom的合同，但到现在为止，这家公司还没有动静。
European officials are frustrated. “If they had done more to get off Russian gas two years ago, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation,” sighs the diplomat. Ukraine is exploring the option of getting gas delivered from Azerbaijan to keep supplies flowing, though this scheme’s feasibility is unclear. Two winters on from the invasion, Russian gas is still rattling Europe.
欧洲官员们感到很沮丧。“如果他们两年前能更努力地摆脱俄罗斯天然气，我们根本就不需要谈这些，”一位外交官叹了口气。乌克兰正在考虑从阿塞拜疆进口天然气，以确保供应，但这个计划的可行性还不太清楚。从入侵开始到现在，俄罗斯的天然气依然在影响着整个欧洲。
