How to avoid anarchy in Antarctica

All that stands between the status quo and chaos is a fragile treaty
现状与混乱之间的唯一障碍是脆弱的条约

2024年10月31日 01:06 下午

ANTARCTICA IS THE only continent unbloodied by war. For over six decades peace on the frozen land mass has been kept by the Antarctic Treaty, an agreement signed in 1959 at the height of the cold war that established it as a demilitarised scientific preserve. But much like its ice sheet, the system governing Antarctica is in trouble as global warming opens up the possibility of mining virgin resources.

南极洲是唯一未受战争影响的大陆。六十多年来，《南极条约》一直维持着这片冰冻陆地上的和平。该条约于 1959 年冷战最激烈的时期签署，将其确立为非军事科学保护区。但就像冰盖一样，随着全球变暖开启了开采原始资源的可能性，南极洲的管理系统也陷入了困境。

Seven countries, including Britain, Argentina, Australia and Norway, have territorial claims over the Antarctic. The carve-up of the continent reflects the world of the early 1900s: Britain, the naval hegemon at the time, and its former colonies grabbed almost 60%. Norway, whose explorers were first to the South Pole, took a bit less than 20%.

英国、阿根廷、澳大利亚和挪威等七个国家对南极拥有领土主张。非洲大陆的瓜分情况反映了1900年代初期的情况：当时的海军霸主英国及其前殖民地瓜分了近60%的份额。挪威的探险家最先到达南极点，所占比例略低于 20%。

These claims do not reflect today’s geopolitical balance and are rejected by other powers such as China, which feels that it was squeezed out of the original scramble for Antarctica. Nor are they recognised by America and Russia, which both reserve the right to make future claims. The only thing standing between a free-for-all land grab, or even conflict, is the treaty. When it came into force in 1961 it froze all territorial claims and prohibited countries from making new ones. Yet this status quo is now being threatened by a new scramble· for the Antarctic.

这些主张并不反映当今的地缘政治平衡，并遭到CN等其他大国的拒绝，美国和俄罗斯也没有承认它们，两国保留未来提出主张的权利。阻碍所有人争夺土地甚至冲突的唯一障碍就是条约。1961 年生效时，它冻结了所有领土主张，并禁止各国提出新的领土主张。然而，这种现状现在正受到新的南极争夺战的威胁。

A growing number of powers are racing to establish or expand their presence on the continent. This year Russia opened its tenth base and China its fifth, India is building a third and Turkey is planning its first. Iran has not signed the treaty but has said it wants an Antarctic base to claim its “property rights”. Were this recent enthusiasm for polar exploration in the spirit of the treaty, which called for peaceful scientific investigation “in the interest of all mankind” and for a ban on any military activity, there would be much to celebrate. Alas, in reality the treaty is in danger of disintegrating under the pressure of countries’ Antarctic ambitions.

越来越多的国家竞相在非洲大陆建立或扩大其存在。今年，俄罗斯开设了第十个基地，中国开设了第五个基地，印度正在建设第三个基地，土耳其正在计划开设第一个基地。伊朗尚未签署该条约，但表示希望在南极建立基地以主张其“财产权”。如果最近对极地探索的热情符合该条约的精神，该条约呼吁“为了全人类的利益”进行和平科学研究并禁止任何军事活动，那么将会有很多值得庆祝的事情。可惜的是，事实上，在各国南极野心的压力下，该条约面临瓦解的危险。

One reason is that some countries are exploiting a loophole which allows “military personnel or equipment for scientific research” in order to militarise bases covertly. America’s Department of Defence alleged in 2022 that China was deploying dual-use technologies and facilities in Antarctica to improve the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army.

原因之一是，一些国家利用“军事人员或科研设备”的漏洞，暗中将基地军事化。美国国防部在2022年声称，CN正在南极洲部署军民两用技术和设施，以提高军队的能力。

A second reason to worry is that countries may be eyeing Antarctica’s potential vast deposits of oil, gas, copper and other minerals. Russia and China appear to be positioning themselves for future exploitation by building bases in resource-rich areas and conducting geological surveys under the pretext of research. The treaty bans mining in a way that cannot easily be amended before 2048. By that date some mineral extraction there may be desirable, were it to provide resources needed for the green transition. But unless this takes place under an enforceable pact, a mining boom could cause ecological damage and conflict as countries seek to enforce their claims.

第二个令人担忧的原因是，各国可能正在关注南极洲潜在的大量石油、天然气、铜和其他矿产资源。俄罗斯和中国似乎正在为未来的开采做好准备，在资源丰富的地区建立基地，并以研究为借口进行地质调查。该条约禁止采矿的方式在 2048 年之前无法轻易修改。到那时，如果能够提供绿色转型所需的资源，可能需要进行一些矿物开采。但除非这是在一项可执行的协议下进行的，否则当各国寻求执行其主张时，采矿业的繁荣可能会造成生态破坏和冲突。

The best solution would be to modernise the treaty so as to create a new global agreement for managing Antarctica. However, all such amendments require unanimous support, which Russia and China would not provide. The practical alternative is for America and its allies to keep trying to enforce the existing treaty but at the same time to draft and sign an improved set of rules on things like environmental protection and tourism that could provide a better model for the governance of the Antarctic. These would then be ready for all countries to adopt, should polar geopolitics ever thaw. ■

最好的解决方案是使该条约现代化，以便制定一项新的管理南极洲的全球协议。然而，所有这些修正案都需要一致支持，而俄罗斯和CN不会提供一致支持。实际的选择是美国及其盟国继续努力执行现有条约，但同时起草并签署一套关于环境保护和旅游业等方面的改进规则，这可以为南极治理提供更好的模式。如果极地地缘政治解冻，这些将可供所有国家采用。■