【新刊速递】《亚太国际关系》(IRAP), Vol. 24, No. 2,2024 | 国政学人

题目：Evaluating Japan’s defense cooperation agreements and their transformative potential: upgrading strategic partnerships with Australia and the UK

作者：Nanae Baldauff ，比利时布鲁日联合国大学地区比较研究副研究员，日本庆应义塾大学湘南藤泽校区高级研究员；Yee-Kuang Heng，东京大学公共政策研究生院国际安全教授

摘要：近年来，日本的防卫合作协定（DCA）不断增多。尽管日本面临严峻的安全环境，但防卫合作协定并没有将正式的军事同盟扩大到唯一的盟友美国之外，而是成为日本加强与不同伙伴的双边和多边防卫关系的重要工具。我们该如何理解日本在建立地区防卫协定方面日益增长的积极性？然而，目前还没有一个框架来系统地评估这些发展中战略伙伴关系，也没有对这些发展中战略伙伴关系在改变日本与志同道合国家的伙伴关系方面的效用的详细评估。本文从几个关键绩效指标出发，提出了一个分析矩阵，并将其应用于评估日本如何利用发展中战略伙伴关系来改变其与澳大利亚和英国这两个关键战略伙伴的防务关系。

Japan’s defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) have been proliferating in recent years. Despite Japan’s harsh security environment, rather than expanding formal military alliances beyond its sole US ally, DCAs have emerged as a crucial instrument deployed by Japan to strengthen bilateral and minilateral defense relations with various partners. How do we make sense of Japan’s growing activism in forging DCAs? Yet, there does not currently exist a framework to systematically evaluate these DCAs, nor is there a detailed assessment of the utility of these DCAs in transforming Japan’s partnerships with like-minded states. This article proposes an analytical matrix derived from several key performance indicators and applies it to evaluate how Japan’s use of DCAs has transformed its defense relationships with two key strategic partners, Australia and the UK.

题目：Taking ideas and words seriously: explaining the institutionalization of the Lancang-Mekong cooperation

作者：龚雪，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际关系学院中国项目助理教授；李明江 ，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际关系学院副教授兼教务长，国际关系讲座教授

摘要：本文探讨了中国的观念性权力和话语权在塑造目标国的利益观念和决定新机构的形成方面所起的作用。本文以澜沧江-湄公河合作（LMC）为案例，阐述了中国如何构建制度化的理念，以及这一理念在与伙伴国的互动中是如何被提出、阐述、讨论和接受的。通过对700多份有关澜湄合作机制的中国官方文字进行收集和编码，以及大量的访谈，本文分析了中国政府如何利用理念和话语来争取湄公河地区国家对建立该机制的支持。本文论证了中国的观念性权力和话语权有助于产生三种结果：否认偏好、培养偏好和增强偏好。这种中国力量通过三种方式使湄公河国家的利益认知与中国的期望相一致：将水安全问题转化为发展问题，通过策略性说服使其接受中国的建议，以及对替代政策进行限制。

This article explores the role of China’s ideational and discursive power in shaping the interest perceptions of target states and in determining the formation of a new institution. Using the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) as a case study, this article illustrates how China framed the idea of institutionalization, and how such idea was proposed, articulated, deliberated, and accepted in the interactions with partner countries. Relying on a collection and coding of over 700 Chinese official texts on the LMC and extensive interviews, we analyze how the Chinese authorities have used ideas and discourses to garner support from states in the Mekong region for the establishment of the institution. This article demonstrates that China’s ideational and discursive power helps generate three outcomes: preference denying, preference cultivating, and preference empowering. Such Chinese power has helped align Mekong countries’ interest perceptions with China’s expectations in three ways: transforming water security into developmental issues, accepting Chinese proposals through tactical persuasion, and constraining alternative policies.

题目：Reconsidering the Ashida memorandum: the relations between the emergency stationing plan and police reform

作者：Goro Fujita，早稻田大学政治经济学院助理教授

摘要：本文探讨了太平洋战争后日本安全政策的起源。在占领期间，日本政府决定在《日本和平条约》签订后继续保留驻日美军。为了解释其背后的原因，现有研究强调了日本政府的外部安全考虑。本文则强调日本外交政策与国内政策之间的相互作用，认为日本政府的决定受到了国内安全考量的强烈影响，从而对现有研究提出了挑战。随着1947年9月《芦田备忘录》的制定以及关于盟军司令部（GHQ）将允许强化警察部队的期望，日本外相芦田仁及其幕僚试图将驻日美军的驻扎限制在国家紧急状态下。然而，与这种期望相反，总司令部的警察改革大大削弱了日本的国内安全保障能力，迫使东京依靠美军来应对国内的共产主义威胁。

This article explores the origins of Japan’s security policy after the Asia-Pacific War. During the occupation, the Japanese government decided on the maintenance of US forces in the country after the Japanese Peace Treaty. To explain the rationale behind this, existing studies emphasize the Japanese government’s external security calculations. Highlighting the interaction between Japanese foreign and domestic policies, this article challenges this conventional claim by arguing that internal security calculations strongly influenced the Japanese government’s decision. With the creation of the Ashida memorandum in September 1947 and the expectation that the General Headquarters (GHQ) would allow for stronger police forces, Japanese Foreign Minister Ashida Hitoshi and his staff sought to restrict the stationing of US forces in Japan only to national emergencies. As opposed to such expectation, however, GHQ’s police reform significantly weakened Japan’s internal security capabilities, forcing Tokyo to depend on US forces for dealing with internal communist threats.

题目：Diversifying economic risks: Japan’s economic hedging toward China

作者：Lluc Vidal López，加泰罗尼亚大学（UOC）政治与国际关系教授；Àngels Pelegrín Solé，公共经济系应用经济学副教授；Ivan Gonzalez-Pujol ，马德里自治大学东亚研究中心日本经济与社会助理教授

摘要：国际关系传统上认为，制衡或追随是国家在面对威胁现状的崛起大国时采取的两种主要战略。然而，最近的学术讨论突出强调了对冲策略的出现，它是国家在面对意图模糊的崛起大国时，尤其是在利害关系重大时采取的一种中间策略。经济对冲是这一战略的关键要素，因为它允许国家在通过贸易和投资将依赖风险降至最低的同时，实现经济利益最大化。本文提出了一个基于库克模型（Kuik’s model）的分析框架，其重点是贸易和投资中的经济多样化概念。本文通过分析安倍政府的多元化举措来检验其有效性，本文核心论点是，日本的多元化努力旨在通过与中国的贸易和投资来降低经济风险，避免在特定领域的过度依赖。

International Relations has traditionally identified balancing and bandwagoning as the two predominant strategies adopted by states in response to a rising power that threatens the status quo. However, recent academic debates have highlighted the emergence of hedging as a middle-ground approach adopted by states facing a rising power with ambiguous intentions, particularly when the stakes are high. Economic hedging forms a critical element of this strategy, as it allows states to maximize economic benefits while minimizing the risks of dependency through trade and investment. We present an analytical framework based on Kuik’s model, which focuses on the concept of economic diversification in trade and investment. We test its validity through an analysis of the diversification initiatives of the Abe administration and our central argument is that Japan’s diversification efforts are aimed at reducing economic risks and avoiding excessive dependency in specific sectors through trade and investment with China.