Building the Future Organisation: 10 Predictions for HR in 2022
It's time to perform my annual ritual of reflecting on 2021, dusting off the crystal ball and looking forward to what's in store for HR in 2022.
In many respects 2021 continued the path wrought by the onset of the pandemic in the preceding year.
2021 also exposed the growing chasm between executives and their employees on return to office and the shape of the future hybrid workplace. This only magnifies the importance of the human resources field. Most experts believe that the future of work has been accelerated by 5-10 years, but the pandemic has elevated the role of human resources too – especially where these functions are data driven, experience led, and business focused.
What does this all mean for 2022? Well, just as I highlighted in last year's predictions, I subscribe to Douglas Adams's (who penned The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy) view that: “Trying to predict the future is a mug's game.” Adams also conceded that it is a game we all have to play given that: “the world is changing so fast and we need to have some sort of idea of what the future's actually going to be like because we are going to have to live there, probably next week.” Given the times in which we live, it's difficult to disagree.
I have varying levels of confidence whether the predictions that follow will prove to be accurate, but I can at least advise that they are informed by data, research, the experience of working with close to 100 global organisations as part of the work we do, and conversations with colleagues, peers and guests on the Digital HR Leaders Podcast.
2022 PREDICTIONS
#1 HR ORCHESTRATES THE PATH TO HYBRID
There is a growing disconnect between employers, who are ready to return to significant in-person attendance, and employees, who aren't (see one study by McKinsey in FIG 1). The debate between an antiquated presence-based work philosophy versus ‘work where, when and how you like’ is set to dominate conversations in 2022. Indeed, it can reasonably be hypothesised that much of the hullabaloo about the ‘The Great Resignation’ can be attributed to the widening chasm between leaders and their workforce. Who better to broker a deal between these embittered factions than HR? Through amplifying the employee voice (see prediction #5) and embracing the opportunity to experiment with agile innovation, HR can orchestrate the path forward. Armed with data, HR can guide leaders to take an empathetic approach in meeting their employees where they are today – and to help them to think bold: maybe even eschewing the traditional 9-5 work model? In parallel, HR can help employees navigate what Microsoft has defined as the ‘hybrid paradox’ (where people want the flexibility to work from anywhere, but simultaneously crave more in-person connection) and foster company culture in ‘the new normal’. We are already seeing this play out in companies including Spotify, Standard Chartered, IBM and Salesforce. Getting hybrid right could transform the threat of ‘The Great Resignation,’ into the opportunity of ‘The Great Attraction.’ This is just one of numerous opportunities that HR has to significantly elevate its role…
#2 AN (EVEN MORE) ELEVATED ROLE FOR HR
The pandemic, vaccines, return-to-office and the debate on hybrid work have all thrust the human resources function into the spotlight over the last two years. McKinsey's vision of a talent-driven organisation composed of a central brain trust consisting the CEO, CFO and CHRO, is coming to fruition. With more exposure comes increased expectations. Consequently greater responsibility is being heaped onto the shoulders of the CHRO. It's not just the pandemic either. When you think about some of the most important topics for organisations today: skills (see prediction #4), employee experience and wellbeing (see #5), mental health in the workplace (also see #5), diversity and inclusion (see #6), and sustainability (see #8), HR has a pivotal role to play. A BCG Study encapsulates the future role of the function as thus: “HR must become the motor of a continuously changing organization that serves employees.” This is HR's chance to build the organisation of the future and, in the words of Dave Ulrich: “we cannot miss this opportunity.” As HR professionals, we have a once in a lifetime opportunity to design workplaces that put the employee at the centre and craft organisational cultures that are more inclusive, empathetic, fairer, healthier, humane – and ultimately more successful. Are we ready? Let's get to work.
#3 PEOPLE ANALYTICS IS ABOUT THE BUSINESS
In Excellence in People Analytics, Jonathan Ferrar and I advocate that the pandemic has advanced people analytics into a new era: The Age of Value, where the focus is on delivering value to the business rather than HR. In the last two years, CEOs and CHROs have required a much deeper understanding of their workforces to inform their response to the pandemic, return-to-office and hybrid work as well as other complex topics such as skills, diversity, and wellbeing. At its most impactful, people analytics is contributing millions of dollars of value to the top and bottom lines as well as having a positive impact on workforce experience, culture and even society. Recent research highlight the growth of the field, and the increasing dependence of leaders on the insights developed through the work of people analytics teams. The key findings of the People Analytics Trends 2021 study are instructive: i) leading companies invest more in people analytics, have bigger teams, productise analytics at scale and have a data driven culture for HR, ii) CHROs unanimously conclude that data and analytics is important (90% of CHROs have made it clear that people analytics is an essential part of HR strategy), and iii) a data driven culture for HR (see FIG 2) delivers business value. With 75% of the 114 global companies that participated in the research telling us that their teams will grow in the coming 18 months, expect to see more investment in people analytics in 2022. I think we will also see more productisation, more companies combining workplace and workforce data together, and an enhanced role for people analytics in areas such as DEI, skills-based workforce planning, employee listening and culture change. If HR is going to successfully grasp the golden opportunity in front of it, then people analytics has a massive role to play.
FIG 2: Three Components of a Data-Driven Culture in HR (Source: People Analytics Trends, 2021)
#4 ADVANCING TO THE SKILLS-BASED ORGANISATION
In an upcoming episode of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast, IBM’s Anshul Sheopuri describes skills as “the silver thread across the employee journey.” Similarly, Deloitte recently classified skills as the new workforce operating system that will radically transform all aspects of talent management. Our own research into the future of workforce planning found that companies that do workforce planning well focus on skills (as well as cost), and use new sources of external data to explore not just what skills and people they have got, but also what they need to find in the marketplace to succeed. Interestingly, the research also found that nearly all companies (90%) expressed a desire to build a skills-based approach to workforce planning (see FIG 3) but that only a quarter are currently doing so. The scale of the transformation to a skills-based organisation should not be underestimated, but it has the potential to create huge value for the business (helping it to ‘see around corners’ as outlined by both Ernest Ng and Jimmy Zhang), HR (by breaking down traditional silos in talent, learning and recruiting) and the workforce (including by creating personalised learning and career recommendations). In 2022, I expect to see a continued surge in growth in talent marketplaces .
FIG 3: Cost-based and Skills-based Workforce Planning
#5 AMPLIFYING THE EMPLOYEE VOICE
Perhaps a positive consequence of the pandemic has been that the majority of leaders are much more interested in employee experience. This has seen companies step up their employee voice and listening programs as part of prioritising employee wellbeing and better understanding collaboration and productivity. At Microsoft, as Chief People Officer Kathleen Hogan explained to me in a recent episode of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast, the insights from a daily pulse of 2,500 employees coupled with analysis of collaboration data (e.g. from Teams) has helped shape Microsoft's approach to hybrid work. Another example is Uber, where analysis of survey responses and data from collaboration tools like Slack and Zoom highlighted pressures on focus time due to remote working. Through a two-pronged approach of information and enablement, Uber was then able to help its employees address collaborative overload. Pairing active (survey) and passive (meta data from collaboration tools like email, calendar, Zoom, Teams and Slack etc) data sources is a powerful combination. Setting up these analyses to directly benefit the workforce makes it more likely that you'll get the support of chief privacy officers, works councils and employees themselves. The potential is enormous and could inform decisions that drive outcomes in areas such as: advancing diversity and inclusion, reducing bias, developing leadership behaviours, improving team effectiveness and elevating mental health (a primary responsibility for HR leaders). This should lead to the activation of happier, healthier, psychologically safe cultures that drive better business performance, enhance the employee experience and provide the perfect antidote to the ‘Great Resignation’.
#6 DIVERSITY, EQUITY, INCLUSION AND BELONGING MOVES FROM TALK TO ACTION
In our recent research with over 100 global organisations diversity and inclusion emerged as the top area where people analytics is adding the most business value. This felt like a significant moment. Diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging (DEIB) has long been cited as an area of untapped potential, but perhaps a unique set of circumstances is helping to tip the scales. First, evidence of the business value of DEI is more readily available (two examples including the annual Women in the Workplace, and a recent study by RedThread Research on creating a DEIB culture). Second, the racial inequality crisis (elevated by the Black Lives Matter movement) has catalysed organisations into action. Third, perhaps critically, the amplification of the employee voice (see #5) has made it crystal clear to leaders that action on DEIB topics is now expected by the workforce. Finally, the growth of people analytics is helping organisations to gain more insight and drive action on DEIB topics (e.g. pay equity, bias, inclusivity and homophily). As Joan C. Williams, one of the world's leading DEIB experts told me in a recent episode of the Digital HR Leaders Podcast, in relation to companies implementing processes such as annual bias training: “You can't change your company culture by doing anything once.” There is much work to do, but thankfully the DEIB genie finally seems to have escaped from the bottle.
#7 UNLOCKING THE TRUST DIVIDEND WITH ETHICS
FIG 4: Figure from LBG in (Source: Excellence in People Analytics, Jonathan Ferrar and David Green – Kogan Page, 2021)
#8 HR'S ROLE EXPANDS TO SUSTAINABILITY AND SOCIETY
Earlier in 2021, the respected Edelman Trust Barometer reported that employees are now considered to be the most important stakeholder to companies’ long-term success. This dovetails with research from McKinsey, which finds that when employees feel that their purpose is aligned with that of their organisation they are more productive, healthier and resilient than employees who don't. This is where HR comes in – to help turn purpose from rhetoric to action. Let's take climate as an example. On the one hand, HR has a strategic role to play in helping the organisation achieve its climate strategy and sustainability goals. Furthermore, HR has to focus on meeting employees’ expectations for how their employer addresses climate change, as this is fast becoming a key part of the employee value proposition. Recent research by Willis Towers Watson finds that HR is currently involved in climate strategy in just over 50% of companies, and while 92% believe it is important to have a clear climate strategy in their employee value proposition, only a paltry 13% currently do. Purpose extends beyond sustainability and is intrinsically linked with other societal topics such as diversity, equity and inclusion. This is probably the most nascent of this year’s predictions – and the one that is more likely to play out over the longer term rather than the next 12 months.
#9 INVESTMENT IN WORK TECH CONTINUES TO EXPLODE
Growth in the HR/Work Tech market has surged since the start of the pandemic, with venture capital investment in work tech set to top $15 billion in 2021 (up 300% from last year). There are now estimated to be at least 24 work tech unicorns. In the last 12 months we have seen Peakon acquired by Workday, Qualtrics partially spun off from SAP, the merger of Emsi and Burning Glass, the launch of Microsoft Viva and huge additional rounds of investments in a plethora of work tech including Visier, Gloat, SmartRecruiters and Culture Amp. It's safe to predict there will be even more consolidation and investment in the market in 2022. Look out in particular for moves in four sub-categories of work tech: i) external labour market data and analytics (firms in this space include Emsi Burning Glass, Claro, HR Forecast, Gartner Talent Neuron), ii) talent marketplaces (Degreed, Eightfold, Fuel50, Gloat, Paddle HR), iii) skills and workforce planning (Orgvue, eQ8, TechWolf, Simply), and iv) organisational network analysis (TrustSphere, Worklytics, Yva, Cognitive Talent Solutions, Maven 7).
#10 TO DELIVER, HR UPSKILLS TO BE MORE DATA DRIVEN, EXPERIENCE LED AND BUSINESS FOCUSED
FIG 5: Nine skills of the Future HR Professional
【中文版】
构建未来组织：2022年人力资源的10个预测
在许多方面，2021年延续了前一年新冠病毒爆发所造成的影响。
2021年还暴露了高管和员工之间在重返办公室和未来混合工作场所的形态上日益扩大的分歧。这只会放大人力资源领域的重要性。大多数专家认为，未来的工作将加快5-10年，但大流行也提高了人力资源的作用——特别是在这些职能由数据驱动、经验主导和以业务为重点的情况下。
这一切对2022年意味着什么?正如我在去年的预测中所强调的那样，我赞同道格拉斯·亚当斯(《银河系漫游指南》的作者)的观点：“试图预测未来是一件愚蠢的事。”亚当斯也承认，这是一个游戏我们都有考虑到玩：“世界变化如此之快,我们需要有某种的未来会是什么样子，因为我们要生活在那里，可能在下周。”考虑到我们所处的时代，很难提出异议。
我有不同程度的信心接下来的预测是否会被证明是准确的，但至少我可以建议他们所依据的数据，研究工作的经验与接近100年全球组织作为工作的一部分，并与同事交流，同事和客人数字人力资源领导人播客。
2022年预测
第一 HR安排了通往混合模式的道路
越来越多的雇主之间的脱节,他已经准备好回到重要的亲身出席,和员工,他们不是(在图1中看到一项研究由麦肯锡)。过时的之间的辩论提供哲学与工作的工作,你喜欢何时、如何设置为主导谈话是在2022年。事实上，我们可以合理地假设，“大辞职”引发的喧嚣，在很大程度上是由于领导层和员工之间的鸿沟不断扩大。还有谁比HR更适合在这些敌对的派系之间斡旋达成协议呢?通过放大员工的声音(见预测#5)，并接受试验敏捷创新的机会，HR可以协调前进的道路。有了数据，人力资源可以引导领导者以一种移情的方式认识他们的员工，并帮助他们大胆思考：也许甚至可以避开传统的朝九晚五的工作模式?与此同时，人力资源可以帮助员工应对微软所定义的“混合悖论”(人们希望在任何地方工作都有灵活性，但同时也渴望更多的面对面交流)，并在“新常态”中培育企业文化。我们已经在Spotify、Standard Chartered、IBM和Salesforce等公司看到了这种情况。正确的混合可能会将“大辞职”的威胁转变为“大吸引力”的机遇。“这只是人力资源部门需要大幅提升自己角色的众多机会之一……
第二 HR的职位(甚至更高)
在过去两年中，新冠病毒、疫苗、重返办公室和关于混合工作的辩论都使人力资源职能成为人们关注的焦点。麦肯锡的愿景是，建立一个由首席执行官、首席财务官和首席运营官组成的中央智囊团，以人才驱动的组织，这一愿景正在实现。随着曝光率的提高，人们的期望也随之提高。因此，更大的责任被压在了CHRO的肩上。也不只是新冠病毒。当你思考当今组织最重要的一些主题时:技能(见预测4)、员工经验和福利(见预测5)、工作场所的心理健康(也见预测5)、多样性和包容性(见预测6)以及可持续性(见预测8)，HR扮演着关键的角色。BCG的一项研究将该职能的未来角色概括为:“人力资源必须成为持续变化的、服务于员工的组织的发动机。”这是人力资源部门构建未来组织的机会，用戴夫•乌尔里希(Dave Ulrich)的话来说:“我们不能错过这个机会。”作为人力资源专业人士，我们有一个一生只有一次的机会来设计一个以员工为中心的工作场所，并打造一个更包容、更有同情心、更公平、更健康、更人性化的组织文化——并最终更成功。我们准备好了吗?让我们开始工作吧。
第三 人员分析是关于业务的
在《卓越的人员分析》一书中，Jonathan Ferrar和我认为，疫情已经将人员分析带入了一个新时代：价值时代，在这个时代，重点是为企业提供价值，而不是人力资源。在过去两年中，首席执行官和人力资源主管要求对他们的员工队伍有更深入的了解，以便为他们应对大流行、重返办公室和混合工作以及技能、多样性和福祉等其他复杂主题提供信息。最具影响力的是，人员分析正在为公司的最高和最低利润贡献数百万美元的价值，并对员工经验、文化甚至社会产生积极影响。最近的研究(以及RedThread research等公司的其他研究)强调了该领域的发展，以及领导者越来越依赖于通过人员分析团队的工作而形成的洞察力。
人群分析2021年趋势研究的关键发现具有启发性：
(i)领先的公司在人力资源分析方面投入更多，拥有更大的团队，大规模地生产分析，并为人力资源提供数据驱动的文化；
(ii)首席人力资源官一致认为数据和分析很重要(90%的首席人力资源官都明确表示，人力资源分析是人力资源战略的重要组成部分)；
iii)数据驱动的人力资源文化(见图2)交付业务价值。
参与这项研究的114家全球公司中，75%的公司表示，他们的团队将在未来18个月内实现增长，预计到2022年，在人员分析方面的投资将会增加。我认为，我们还将看到更多的产品化，更多的公司将工作场所和劳动力数据结合在一起，人员分析在DEI、基于技能的劳动力规划、员工倾听和文化变革等领域的作用将得到加强。如果人力资源部门想要成功地抓住眼前的黄金机遇，那么人员分析将发挥巨大的作用。
第四 迈向以技能为基础的组织
在即将播出的Digital HR Leaders播客中，IBM的Anshul Sheopuri将技能描述为“贯穿员工旅程的银线”。同样，德勤(Deloitte)最近将技能分类为新的劳动力操作系统，将从根本上改变人才管理的各个方面。未来我们自己的研究工作计划发现,企业做好人力规划关注技能(以及成本)，并使用外部数据探索的新来源不仅仅是技能和人员，而且他们需要找到在市场上取得成功。有趣的是，该研究还发现，几乎所有公司(90%)都表示希望建立以技能为基础的劳动力规划方法(见图3)，但目前只有四分之一的公司这样做。转换技能组织的规模不应该被低估，但它有潜力创造巨大价值的业务(帮助它看到角落的欧内斯特·Ng和吉米张)概述,人力资源(在人才,打破传统的筒仓学习和招聘)和劳动力(包括创建个性化的学习和职业推荐)。到2022年，我预计人才市场将持续增长。
第五 放大员工的声音
也许新冠病毒的一个积极后果是，大多数领导人对员工体验更感兴趣。这使得公司加强了员工意见和倾听项目，以优先考虑员工福祉，更好地理解协作和生产力。在微软，正如首席人力资源官Kathleen Hogan在最近的Digital HR Leaders播客中向我解释的那样，2500名员工每天的工作经历，加上对协作数据的分析(如Teams)，帮助微软形成了混合工作的方法。另一个例子是优步(Uber)，该公司对调查反馈和Slack、Zoom等协作工具的数据进行分析，突显出远程工作对专注时间的压力。通过信息和支持双管齐下的方法，优步能够帮助员工解决合作超负荷的问题。将主动(调查)和被动(来自电子邮件、日历、Zoom、Teams和Slack等协作工具的元数据)数据源进行配对是一个强大的组合。建立这些分析，直接使员工受益，使你更有可能得到首席隐私官、劳资委员会和员工自己的支持。这种潜力是巨大的，可以为决策提供信息，从而推动以下领域的成果:促进多样性和包容性、减少偏见、发展领导行为、提高团队效率和提高心理健康(这是人力资源领导者的主要责任)。这将导致更快乐、更健康、心理安全的文化的激活，从而推动更好的业务绩效，增强员工体验，并为“大辞职”提供完美的解毒剂。
第六 多元化、公平、包容和归属感从言论走向行动
在我们最近对100多个全球组织的研究中，多样性和包容性成为人们分析增加最大商业价值的首要领域。这感觉像是一个重要的时刻。多样性、公平性、包容性和归属感(DEIB)长期以来一直被认为是一个未开发潜力的领域，但或许是一套独特的环境在帮助扭转局势。首先，DEI商业价值的证据更容易获得(两个例子包括每年的《职场女性》，以及RedThread Research最近关于创建DEIB文化的研究)。其次，种族不平等危机(被“黑人的命也是命”(Black Lives Matter)运动推高)促使各组织采取行动。第三，或许至关重要的是，员工的声音被放大(见#5)，让领导者清楚地知道，员工现在期望在DEIB议题上采取行动。最后，人员分析的增长正在帮助组织获得更多的洞察力，并推动对DEIB主题(如薪酬公平、偏见、包容性和同质性)的行动。正如世界顶尖的DEIB专家Joan C. Williams在最近的数字人力资源领导者播客(Digital HR Leaders Podcast)中谈到公司实施诸如年度偏见培训等流程时告诉我的那样:“你不能通过一次做任何事情来改变你的公司文化。”还有很多工作要做，但谢天谢地，DEIB精灵似乎终于从瓶子里逃了出来。
第七 用道德解锁信任红利
为提供数据的人(即员工)提供分析的好处，会对业务绩效产生积极的影响。因此，重要的是要建立人们对个人数据使用的信任，并直面道德和隐私问题。其中一个步骤是制定一份道德宪章，规定透明度，并管理明智和合乎道德地使用人的数据。我们已经与几个组织合作，帮助他们制定道德宪章。在Excellence in People Analytics的一个案例研究中，劳埃德银行集团(Lloyds Banking Group)描述了如何制定道德宪章(见图4中的指导原则)，保护员工并为公司带来价值。通过在道德规范方面保持透明，一个组织可能会从员工那里获得更多的信任。通过建立信任，通过这种信任能够从员工那里获得更多的个人数据，从而可以传递更多的价值。事实上，埃森哲(Accenture)的一项研究发现，如果一家机构在使用员工数据方面采用负责任的战略，信托红利的价值可能超过未来收入增长6%。随着监管机构(包括欧盟(EU)、平等就业机会委员会(EEOC)甚至纽约市(New York City))越来越多地关注立法，以管理组织(对员工和客户)对人工智能的使用，我预计，到2022年，将有更多公司实施伦理章程，管理人员数据的使用。
第八 HR的角色扩展到可持续性和社会
2021年早些时候，备受尊敬的爱德曼信任度晴雨表(Edelman Trust Barometer)报告称，员工现在被认为是公司长期成功的最重要的利益相关者。这与麦肯锡(McKinsey)的一项研究相吻合，麦肯锡发现，当员工觉得自己的目标与所在组织的目标一致时，他们会比那些不这样认为的员工更有生产力、更健康、更有弹性。这就是人力资源发挥作用的地方——帮助把目标从花言巧语变成行动。让我们以气候为例。一方面，人力资源在帮助组织实现其气候战略和可持续发展目标方面扮演着战略角色。此外，人力资源部门必须专注于满足员工对雇主应对气候变化的期望，因为这正迅速成为员工价值主张的一个关键部分。Willis Towers Watson最近的一项研究发现，人力资源部门目前参与气候变化战略的公司仅占50%以上，92%的人认为在员工价值主张中制定明确的气候变化战略非常重要，但目前只有13%的人这么做。宗旨超越了可持续性，与多样性、公平和包容等其他社会主题有着内在的联系。这可能是今年预测中最初露苗头的一个，而且更有可能在较长期(而非未来12个月)出现。
第九 对工作技术的投资持续爆炸式增长
自疫情暴发以来，人力资源/工作技术市场增长迅猛，2021年工作技术领域的风险投资预计将超过150亿美元(比去年增长300%)。据估计，目前至少有24家科技独角兽公司。在过去的12个月里，我们看到了Workday收购的Peakon，从SAP部分剥离的Qualtrics, Emsi和Burning Glass的合并，微软Viva的推出，以及对一系列工作技术的大量额外投资，包括Visier、Gloat、可以有把握地预测，2022年将会有更多的整合和投资。
要特别关注工作技术的四个子类：
i)外部劳动力市场数据和分析(该领域的公司包括Emsi Burning Glass, Claro, HR Forecast, Gartner Talent Neuron)；
ii)人才市场(Degreed, Eightfold, Fuel50, Gloat, Paddle HR)；
iii)技能和劳动力计划(Orgvue, eQ8, TechWolf, Simply)；
iv)组织网络分析(TrustSphere, Worklytics, Yva，认知人才解决方案，Maven 7)。
第十 交付，人力资源提升技能更受数据驱动，经验引导和业务关注
为了抓住这个摆在职能部门面前的机会，并满足领导者和员工日益高涨的期望，人力资源专业人士的技能需要不断发展。在数字时代的研究中，我们为未来的人力资源专业人员确定了三种类别和九种技能，这些技能将更受数据驱动、经验主导和业务关注(见图5)。这些技能将使人力资源人员能够解决业务挑战，对战略、支持创建包容性的企业文化，提供更好的员工体验。我们最近对全球100多个组织的研究发现，90%的首席人力资源官都明确表示，数据和分析是人力资源战略的重要组成部分，这方面已经取得了进展。然而，仍有很大的改进空间，同样的研究发现，目前只有42%的这些组织拥有数据驱动的员工数据和分析文化。2022年将是缩小这一差距的一年。
