Why the world’s smelliest fruit, Durian, is making your coffee more expensive
为什么世界上最“臭”的水果——榴莲——会让你的咖啡变得更贵
Believe it or not, the famously pungent durian fruit is playing an unexpected role in driving up the price of your coffee. While inflation and environmental factors have been major contributors to rising coffee prices, durian has added a surprising twist to the story.
你可能不敢相信，以气味浓烈著称的榴莲正在意外地推高你的咖啡价格。虽然通货膨胀和环境因素一直是咖啡价格上涨的主要推手，但榴莲却为这一趋势增添了意想不到的转折。
Vietnam, one of the largest coffee producers in the world, has seen a growing number of farmers abandoning coffee in favour of durian. The reason? Durian is far more profitable. This shift in agriculture is happening at a time when the global coffee market is already strained by environmental challenges, making your cup of coffee more expensive than ever.
越南是世界上最大的咖啡生产国之一，越来越多的农民正在放弃咖啡种植，转而种植榴莲。原因？榴莲的利润要高得多。这种农业转变发生在全球咖啡市场已因环境挑战而倍感压力之际，这使得你手中的一杯咖啡比以往任何时候都要昂贵。
Vietnam is known for producing robusta beans, a key ingredient in many instant and affordable coffee blends. But over the past few years, many farmers have turned their attention to growing durian instead.
越南以生产罗布斯塔豆而闻名，这是许多速溶咖啡和实惠咖啡混合品的关键原料。但过去几年，许多农民已将注意力转向种植榴莲。
The "king of fruits," as durian is often called in southeast Asia, commands high prices in international markets, particularly in China, where demand is soaring. Farmers who once relied on coffee crops for their income are now finding they can make significantly more money by growing durian.
榴莲在东南亚常被称为“水果之王”，在国际市场上，尤其是在中国，价格高昂，需求飙升。曾经依赖咖啡作物为生的农民现在发现，种植榴莲能让他们赚更多的钱。
This shift is contributing to a reduction in coffee production. In 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports dropped by a staggering 50% according to the International Coffee Organisation. Less supply means higher prices on the global market, which eventually trickles down to the consumer.
这种转变导致咖啡产量减少。据国际咖啡组织称，2023年，越南的咖啡出口量惊人地下跌了50%。供应量减少意味着全球市场价格上升，最终这种影响会波及到消费者。
While durian is pulling farmers away from coffee, climate change is simultaneously wreaking havoc on coffee crops around the world. Brazil, the largest coffee producer globally, has been hit hard by extreme weather. Unpredictable frost events, heatwaves, and prolonged droughts have drastically reduced crop yields.
当榴莲吸引农民放弃咖啡种植时，气候变化也同时在世界各地对咖啡作物造成破坏。作为全球最大的咖啡生产国，巴西受到极端天气的严重打击。不可预测的霜冻、热浪和长期干旱已大幅减少作物产量。
In Vietnam, droughts have also affected coffee plantations, further diminishing the supply. Coffee plants are highly sensitive to climate conditions, and as the planet warms, the regions where coffee can thrive are shrinking. A 2022 study predicted that by 2050, the land suitable for coffee farming could be reduced by as much as 50%.
在越南，干旱也影响了咖啡种植园，进一步减少了供应量。咖啡植物对气候条件极为敏感，随着地球变暖，咖啡能够茁壮生长的地区正在缩小。2022年的一项研究预测，到2050年，适合咖啡种植的土地可能会减少多达50%。
This paints a grim picture for the future of coffee production, especially as global demand continues to rise. As a result of these combined factors — durian-driven agricultural shifts, climate change, and dwindling coffee supplies — prices for coffee beans have soared to near-record highs in recent years.
这为咖啡生产的未来描绘了一幅黯淡的图景，尤其是考虑到全球需求仍在持续增长。由于榴莲驱动的农业转型、气候变化以及咖啡供应量减少等这些因素的综合作用，近年来咖啡豆价格已飙升至接近历史最高水平。
This has inevitably pushed up the price of a cup of coffee on the high street. A 5 pounds coffee in the UK or a $7 cup in the US may soon become the norm, especially in trendy cafés or speciality coffee shops.
这不可避免地推高了街头咖啡的价格。在英国，一杯5英镑的咖啡或在美国一杯7美元的咖啡可能很快就会成为常态，尤其是在时尚的咖啡馆或特色咖啡店中。
It's worth noting that the cost of coffee beans only makes up about 10% of the price you pay for your coffee. Other factors like labour, rent, and inflation also play a role in the price increase, but the rising cost of raw beans is making a noticeable impact.
值得注意的是，咖啡豆的成本只占你支付的咖啡价格的约10%。劳动力、租金和通货膨胀等其他因素也在价格上涨中起作用，但生豆成本上升的影响十分明显。
While the global coffee industry is facing serious challenges, there is still some hope on the horizon. If Brazil's next coffee harvest is successful and weather conditions improve, prices could stabilise or even decrease slightly. However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, especially as climate change continues to limit where and how coffee can be grown.
尽管全球咖啡行业正面临严峻挑战，但前方仍有一丝希望。如果巴西下一季的咖啡收成良好，且气候条件有所改善，价格可能会趋于稳定，甚至略有下降。然而，长期前景仍不确定，尤其是气候变化继续限制咖啡的种植地点和方式。
For now, your caffeine fix is likely to become more expensive and potentially harder to come by. Durian may be making headlines for its overpowering smell, but its impact on global agriculture is becoming just as significant — especially if you're a coffee lover.
就目前而言，你的咖啡因需求可能会变得更加昂贵，甚至更难满足。榴莲可能因其浓烈的气味而上头条新闻，但它对全球农业的影响也同样显著——尤其对于咖啡爱好者来说。
So, the next time you're sipping on an expensive cup of coffee, remember: the durian may be partly to blame.
所以，下次当你品尝着一杯昂贵的咖啡时，请记住：榴莲可能也要负一部分责任。
苏格拉底有一句名言：我知我无知。说的是，当你认识到的东西越多就越发现自己无知。苏格拉底认为，人对于客观世界的认识是有限的，且不可能完全认识客观世界，并且不应对客观世界刨根究底。神对于世界的规划自有安排，若人一意孤行地探索世界和自然的奥秘，则最终将亵渎甚至触怒神明。正因为人对神所构建的世界不可能实现完全认知，因此那些宣称自己能够认识和改造世界的人，本身便是无知的代言。尽管苏格拉底的关于“ 我知我无知”的观念的解读，在现在看来有失客观科学。但至少苏格拉底告诫人们，人的认知是有限的，现有的知识甚至可能存在错误和疏漏。因此，无论任何时代，我们都必须对自己的无知加以认识并通过不懈的开拓，去更新甚至颠覆固有的知识结构。我们在求学之路上也要报以我知我不知的心态，才能走得更远、终有所成。最后，祝愿每一位考研学子都能顺利上岸！
