Don't expect human life expectancy to grow much more, researcher says
研究人员称，不要指望人类的预期寿命会增长太多
Humanity is hitting the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study. Advances in medical technology and genetic research — not to mention larger numbers of people making it to age 100 — are not translating into marked jumps in lifespan overall, according to researchers who found shrinking longevity increases in countries with the longest-living populations.
根据一项最新研究，人类的预期寿命正接近上限。研究人员发现，在那些最长寿的国家中，人们的寿命增长幅度正在缩减，据此他们认为，尽管医疗技术和遗传研究取得了进步，而且越来越多人能活到100岁，但人类的整体寿命并未因此出现显著延长。
"We have to recognize there's a limit" and perhaps reassess assumptions about when people should retire and how much money they'll need to live out their lives, said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago researcher who was lead author of the study published Monday by the journal Nature Aging.
“我们必须认识到这是有极限的”，我们可能需要重新评估关于人们何时退休以及需要多少资金来维持余生的假设，伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校的研究人员S·杰伊·奥尔沙斯基说道，他也是周一在《自然-衰老》杂志上发表的这项研究的主要作者。
Mark Hayward, a University of Texas researcher not involved in the study, called it a valuable addition to the mortality literature. "We are reaching a plateau" in life expectancy, he agreed. It's always possible some breakthrough could push survival to greater heights, "but we don't have that now," Hayward said.
未参与该研究的德克萨斯大学研究员马克·海沃德称其为对死亡率文献的宝贵补充，并赞同“我们正在达到寿命的一个平台期”的说法。他表示，虽然某些突破可能进一步延长寿命，“但目前我们还没有达到那个阶段。”
Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of years a baby born in a given year might expect to live, assuming death rates at that time hold constant. It is one of the world's most important health measures, but it is also imperfect: It is a snapshot estimate that cannot account for deadly pandemics, miracle cures or other unforeseen developments that might kill or save millions of people.
预期寿命是指在某一年出生的婴儿在当时死亡率保持不变的情况下，预计能活多少年。这是世界上最重要的健康指标之一，但它也有不足之处：它是一个即时估算值，无法考虑到可能夺去或拯救数百万人生命的致命流行病、奇迹疗法或其他不可预见的发展情况。
In the new research, Olshansky and his research partners tracked life expectancy estimates for the years 1990 to 2019, drawn from a database administered by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The researchers focused on eight of the places in the world where people live the longest — Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Switzerland.
在这项新研究中，奥尔尚斯基及其研究伙伴追踪了1990年至2019年间的预期寿命估算，这些数据来自于由马克斯·普朗克人口研究所管理的数据库。研究人员重点关注了全球八个寿命最长的地区——澳大利亚、法国、香港、意大利、日本、韩国、西班牙和瑞士。
The U.S. doesn't even rank in the top 40. But is also was included "because we live here" and because of past, bold estimates that life expectancy in the U.S. might surge dramatically in this century, Olshansky said.
美国甚至没有进入前40名。不过，奥尔尚斯基表示，美国仍被纳入研究“因为我们生活在这里”，并且过去曾有大胆的预测认为美国的预期寿命在本世纪可能会显著上升。
Women continue to live longer than men and life expectancy improvements are still occurring — but at a slowing pace, the researchers found. In 1990, the average amount of improvement was about 2 1/2 years per decade. In the 2010s, it was 1 1/2 years — and almost zero in the U.S.
研究人员发现，女性的寿命仍然长于男性，预期寿命的改善仍在发生，但速度在放缓。1990年时，全球范围内预期寿命每十年大约提高2.5年，但到了2010年代，这一增长幅度下降至1.5年。
The U.S. is more problematic because it is harder hit by a range of issues that kill people even before they hit old age, including drug overdoses, shootings, obesity and inequities that make it hard for some people to get sufficient medical care.
美国的情况更为严重，因为它受到一系列问题的严重打击，这些问题甚至在人们进入老年之前就夺去了他们的生命，包括药物过量、枪击、肥胖以及导致一些人难以获得足够医疗照顾的不平等现象。
But in one calculation, the researchers estimated what would happen in all nine places if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated. The increase at best was still only 1 1/2 years, Olshansky said.
但在一项计算中，研究人员估计了如果所有50岁之前的死亡都被消除，这9个地区将会出现什么情况。奥尔尚斯基指出，寿命的最大增长幅度也仅为1.5年。
Eileen Crimmins, a University of Southern California gerontology expert, said in an email that she agrees with the study's findings. She added: "For me personally, the most important issue is the dismal and declining relative position of the United States."
南加州大学的老年医学专家艾琳·克里民斯在一封电子邮件中表示，她同意这项研究的发现。她补充说：“对我个人而言，最关键的问题是美国在全球预期寿命排名中的悲惨表现和持续下滑。”
The study suggests that there's a limit to how long most people live, and we've about hit it, Olshansky said. "We're squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies. And the reason is, aging gets in the way," he said.
奥尔尚斯基表示，这项研究表明，大多数人的寿命存在一个上限，而我们已经接近这个上限。他说：“我们从这些延长生命的技术中挤出的生命越来越少。原因在于，衰老成为了障碍。”
It may seem common to hear of a person living to 100 — former U.S. President Jimmy Carter hit that milestone last week. In 2019, a little over 2% of Americans made it to 100, compared with about 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong, Olshansky said.
听到某人活到100岁似乎已经很常见——前美国总统吉米·卡特上周达到了这个里程碑。奥尔尚斯基指出，2019年，超过2%的美国人活到100岁，而日本约为5%，香港则为9%。
It's likely that the ranks of centenarians will grow in the decades ahead, experts say, but that's because of population growth. The percentage of people hitting 100 will remain limited, likely with fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men making it that long in most countries, Olshansky said.
专家指出，未来几十年里，百岁老人的数量可能会增加，但这主要归因于人口的增长。奥尔沙斯基说，能活到100岁的人所占的比例仍将有限，在大多数国家，可能只有不到15%的女性和5%的男性能够如此长寿。
苏格拉底有一句名言：我知我无知。说的是，当你认识到的东西越多就越发现自己无知。苏格拉底认为，人对于客观世界的认识是有限的，且不可能完全认识客观世界，并且不应对客观世界刨根究底。神对于世界的规划自有安排，若人一意孤行地探索世界和自然的奥秘，则最终将亵渎甚至触怒神明。正因为人对神所构建的世界不可能实现完全认知，因此那些宣称自己能够认识和改造世界的人，本身便是无知的代言。尽管苏格拉底的关于“ 我知我无知”的观念的解读，在现在看来有失客观科学。但至少苏格拉底告诫人们，人的认知是有限的，现有的知识甚至可能存在错误和疏漏。因此，无论任何时代，我们都必须对自己的无知加以认识并通过不懈的开拓，去更新甚至颠覆固有的知识结构。我们在求学之路上也要报以我知我不知的心态，才能走得更远、终有所成。最后，祝愿每一位考研学子都能顺利上岸！
