Cite this article：
Berg, T.A., Kintziger, K.W., Crumly, J.S. et al. Development of a Proof-of-Concept Multi-Method Computer Simulation to Support Rural Healthcare Disaster Preparedness Planning. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00561-x
开发概念验证模式多方法计算机模拟以支持农村医疗备灾规划
Thomas A. Berg, Kristina W. Kintziger, Julie Suzuki Crumly, Scott A. Lawson, Carole R. Myers & Tracey T. Stansberry
摘要：
由于缺乏资源，农村社区在灾害事件规划中往往面临挑战。本研究应用系统思维和基于模型的系统工程来开发一个概念验证、多方法的计算机模拟，然后确定该模拟是否可用于评估灾害规划方法对农村社区健康结果的影响，作为基层医疗的一项功能。本文研究的重点是遭遇自然灾害的农村或非城市医疗系统。本文的研究将系统动力学和离散事件模型纳入其中，以代表子系统的运行、关键的灾害响应以及三个关键响应系统：公共卫生、应急管理和医疗。子系统模型包括几个组成部分：政策/程序、通信、资源、演习/演练/培训、医疗空间和工作人员，以及受灾人群在系统中的流动。综合模拟可作为更全面方法的第一步，帮助农村社区实现更高效、更有效的灾害响应医疗规划。
关键词：
计算机模拟；备灾；基于模型的系统工程；农村医疗；系统动态模型；系统思维
Development of a Proof-of-Concept Multi-Method Computer Simulation to Support Rural Healthcare Disaster Preparedness Planning
Thomas A. Berg, Kristina W. Kintziger, Julie Suzuki Crumly, Scott A. Lawson, Carole R. Myers & Tracey T. Stansberry
Abstract：
Due to a lack of resources, rural communities often face challenges when planning catastrophic events. This project involved applying systems thinking and model-based systems engineering to develop a proof-of-concept, multi-method computer simulation and then determining whether the simulation could be used to assess the efficacy of disaster planning approaches on health outcomes in rural communities, as a function of primary healthcare. The project focus was a rural or non-urban healthcare system experiencing a natural hazard. Both system dynamics and discrete event models were incorporated to represent subsystem operations, crucial disaster responses, as well as three key response systems: public health, emergency management, and healthcare. The subsystem models included several components: policies/procedures, communications, resources, exercises/drills/training, healthcare space and staff, and the flow of affected people into and through the system. The combined simulation can serve as a first step to a more comprehensive approach to helping rural communities achieve more efficient and effective healthcare planning for disaster responses.
Keywords：
Computer simulation, Disaster preparedness, Model-based systems engineering, Rural healthcare, System dynamics model, Systems thinking
文章链接：
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00561-x