Cite this article：
Keisler, J.M., Wells, E.M. & Linkov, I. A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00587-1
研究系统韧性的多准则决策分析方法
Jeffrey M. Keisler, Emily M. Wells & Igor Linkov
摘要：
本文构建了一个创新型的决策导向框架，通过重点关注系统的设计、能力和管理，策略性的解构系统韧性。该框架有助于评估和比较系统设计选择对系统韧性的影响。首先，本文提出一种基于韧性曲线分段线性近似的韧性评分方法。利用多准则决策分析原则，本文对不同系统设计备选方案在特定系统能力方面进行评分。之后本文估算了这些能力与韧性阶段相关的韧性曲线参数之间的相关性。最后，本文将韧性相对于曲线参数值的导数解释为这些参数的杠杆效应。通过多层次加权和的评分方法，首先计算系统设计选择对韧性参数的一阶影响，再计算其对韧性的影响，这一方法允许将情景特征纳入其自然术语中，同时使用可追踪逻辑映射它们对韧性的影响。本文通过现有资料开发了一个示例，比较了不同工程设计在减小野火后洪水影响方面的效果，以此说明该方法的实际应用。
关键词：
决策分析；多准则决策分析；韧性；系统设计
A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience
Jeffrey M. Keisler, Emily M. Wells & Igor Linkov
Abstract：
This article develops a novel decision-oriented framework that strategically deconstructs systems resilience in a way that focuses on systems’ design, capabilities, and management. The framework helps evaluate and compare how system design choices impact system resilience. First, we propose a resilience score based on a piecewise linear approximation to a resilience curve. Using multicriteria decision analysis principles, we score system design alternatives in terms of system-specific capabilities. We estimate the relevance of these capabilities to resilience curve parameters associated with resilience phases. Finally, we interpret the derivatives of resilience with respect to the curve parameter values as the leverage of these parameters. Using multiple levels of weighted sums of the scores, we calculate the first order impact of system design choices first on a proxy for the generic resilience parameters and then on resilience, which allows situational characteristics to be incorporated in their natural terminology while mapping their impact on resilience with a traceable logic. We illustrate the approach by using existing materials to develop an example comparing engineered designs for minimizing post-wildfire flood impacts.
Keywords：
Decision analysis, Multicriteria decision analysis, Resilience, System design
文章链接：
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00587-1