Cite this article：
Takabatake, T., Hasegawa, N., Yamaguchi, K. et al. Comparative Analysis of Tsunami Casualty Estimation Approaches: Agent-Based Modeling versus Simplified Approach in Japanese Coastal Cities. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00586-2
海啸伤亡估算方法的比较分析：基于ABM模拟与简化方法在日本沿海城市的应用
Tomoyuki Takabatake, Nanami Hasegawa, Keita Yamaguchi & Miguel Esteban
摘要：
估算重大地震和海啸事件潜在伤亡人数对于提升备灾和灾害响应工作水平至关重要。尽管存在多种评估潜在伤亡人数的方法，但对它们之间的直接比较研究较少。本研究旨在阐明基于智能体建模（ABM）与简化方法在伤亡人数估算方面的差异。ABM能够捕捉详细的疏散行为，但需要较多的计算资源；而简化方法则假设疏散者沿直线从其初始位置移动至最近的疏散目的地，从而降低计算成本。本研究将这两种不同方法应用于日本的三个沿海城市——和歌山县的美浜、串本和新宫，结果显示ABM与简化方法在估算结果上存在显著差异。此外，ABM与简化方法在估算的死亡率空间分布上也存在显著差异。研究结果表明，尽管简化方法能够更快速地产生结果，但从此类模型得出的伤亡人数估算应谨慎解读。
关键词：
智能体建模；建筑物倒塌；伤亡估算；疏散；日本海啸
Comparative Analysis of Tsunami Casualty Estimation Approaches: Agent-Based Modeling versus Simplified Approach in Japanese Coastal Cities
Tomoyuki Takabatake, Nanami Hasegawa, Keita Yamaguchi & Miguel Esteban
Abstract：
Estimating potential casualties from a significant earthquake and tsunami event is crucial to enhance disaster preparedness and response. Although various approaches exist to assess potential casualties, few studies have made direct comparisons between them. The present study aimed to clarify the differences in the estimation of casualties between an agent-based model (ABM), which can capture detailed evacuation behavior but demands significant computational resources, and a simplified approach at less computational cost by assuming that evacuees would move along a straight line from their initial location to the closest evacuation destination. These different approaches were applied to three coastal cities in Japan—Mihama, Kushimoto, and Shingu in Wakayama Prefecture—revealing significant differences in the estimated results between the ABM and the simplified approach. Notably, when the effects of building collapse due to an earthquake were considered, the mortality rates estimated by the ABM were higher than those estimated by the simplified approach in the three cities. There were also significant differences in the spatial distribution of the estimated mortality rates between the ABM and the simplified approach. The findings suggest that while the simplified approach can yield results more quickly, casualty estimates derived from such models should be interpreted with caution.
Keywords：
Agent-based modeling, Building collapse, Casualty estimation, Evacuation, Japan, Tsunami
文章链接：
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00586-2