Cite this article：
Velásquez-Espinoza, G., Alcántara-Ayala, I. Tropical Cyclones in Nicaragua: Historical Impact and Contemporary Exposure to Disaster Risk. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00581-7
尼加拉瓜的热带气旋：历史影响与当代面临的灾害风险
Gema Velásquez-Espinoza & Irasema Alcántara-Ayala
摘要：
在尼加拉瓜等热带地区，近年来人口对灾害的脆弱性显著增加。这种脆弱性的提升导致灾害频发，尤其是由强飓风引发的灾害。对于这一现象在国家层面的影响，当前研究仍然理解不足。因此，本文旨在达成两个目标。首先，本文对从1852年到2020年热带气旋对尼加拉瓜社会的直接影响进行了历史回顾，接下来分析了未来飓风引发的强风在尼加拉瓜发生的统计概率。本文收集了袭击尼加拉瓜海岸的热带气旋数据，包括直接影响、风速、气压、风暴等级、路径方向和登陆时间，建立了一个基于风速和频率来分类强度的数据库。从1852年至2020年，尼加拉瓜在每年9月至11月间共经历了58次不同强度的热带气旋。本文研究了六次飓风的路径并分析其潜在威胁区域，根据三个风速强度及飓风路径等级，划分了每条路径的三个等级的影响区域，并确定了尼加拉瓜各省和自治区的暴露情况。这些发现对于确定热带气旋，特别是4级和5级飓风可能造成影响的优先关注区域至关重要。政府官员和公众可以利用这些数据来确定迫切需要加强的战略，以减轻灾害风险和避免潜在的灾害损失。
关键词：
暴露；历史影响；飓风；尼加拉瓜；热带气旋；脆弱性
Tropical Cyclones in Nicaragua: Historical Impact and Contemporary Exposure to Disaster Risk
Gema Velásquez-Espinoza & Irasema Alcántara-Ayala
Abstract：
In tropical regions such as Nicaragua, the population’s vulnerability to hazards has escalated in recent decades. This increase in vulnerability has led to a surge in disasters, particularly those triggered by intense hurricanes. The implications at the national level are still poorly understood. The aim of this article has, therefore, been two-fold. First, to present a historical review of the direct effects of tropical cyclones on society in Nicaragua from 1852 to 2020. Second, to analyze the statistical probabilities of future hurricane-spawned high winds over Nicaragua. Data on cyclones hitting Nicaragua’s coasts were collected, including direct effects, wind speed, pressure, category, direction, and time of landfall. A database was created to classify intensity based on wind speed and frequency. Between 1852 and 2020, Nicaragua experienced 58 tropical cyclones with varying degrees of intensity between September and November. The trajectories of six past hurricanes were considered here regarding the areas that might have been under potential threat. Three zones of influence were delimited along each trajectory according to three wind intensities and the trajectory of these hurricanes. The consequent exposure of each Nicaraguan department and autonomous region was established. The findings are essential to delimitating priority areas for attention regarding the likely impact of tropical cyclones, mainly category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Public officials and the general public can use these data to identify the pressing need for enhanced strategies to mitigate disaster risk and avoid potential disasters.
Keywords：
Exposure, Historical impact, Hurricanes, Nicaragua, Tropical cyclones, Vulnerability
文章链接：
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00581-7