Cite this article：
Wang, W., He, S., Guo, H. et al. Sand and Dust Storm Risk Assessment in Arid Central Asia: Implications for the Environment, Society, and Agriculture. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00591-5
中亚干旱地区沙尘暴风险评估：环境、社会与农业的影响
Wei Wang, Shanfeng He, Hao Guo, Jilili Abuduwaili, Alim Samat, Philippe De Maeyer & Tim Van de Voorde
摘要：
本研究借助谷歌地球引擎（GEE）平台，通过基于灾害系统理论建立的沙尘暴灾害风险评估框架，从多部门（环境、社会和农业）和综合视角评估了近20年亚洲中部干旱区（中亚五国和中国新疆）沙尘暴灾害风险时空变化特征。研究结果表明，中亚干旱地区中具有中度或更高 SDS 风险的区域占总面积的 18.75%。高风险 SDS 区域主要集中在沙漠周围的绿洲地带，且在春季和夏季分布最广。南疆绿洲地区的 SDS 风险显著增加，而在咸海东北部地区和哈萨克丘陵地区的 SDS 风险则显著下降。在乌兹别克斯坦阿姆河三角洲地区的花拉子模州是综合沙尘暴风险最高的行政区，而土库曼斯坦的巴尔干州、中国新疆的喀什市和泽普县分是沙尘暴灾害多部门风险（环境、社会和农业）最高的行政区。总的来说，从空间分布上看环境风险分布最广，其次是以绿洲耕地为主的农业风险，最后是以建成区、工矿区和经济密集区为主的社会风险。此项研究结果全面描绘了中亚干旱地区的 SDS 风险分布情况，为全面认识中亚地区沙尘暴灾害风险的动态变化规律提供依据，并将为相关国家和地区防灾减灾工作提供参考。
关键词：
层次分析法；中亚；沙尘暴；多部门风险评估；遥感
Sand and Dust Storm Risk Assessment in Arid Central Asia: Implications for the Environment, Society, and Agriculture
Wei Wang, Shanfeng He, Hao Guo, Jilili Abuduwaili, Alim Samat, Philippe De Maeyer & Tim Van de Voorde
Abstract：
This study aimed to assess sand and dust storm (SDS) risks in arid Central Asia during 2001–2021 from a multisectoral (environment, society, and agriculture) and comprehensive perspective on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The results show that the areas with moderate or greater SDS risk accounted for 18.75% of the total area of arid Central Asia. The high SDS risk areas are mainly concentrated in the oases around the desert and are most widely distributed in spring and summer. The SDS risk in the oasis area of southern Xinjiang increased significantly, while the SDS risk in the northeastern Aral Sea region and the Kazakh hilly region decreased significantly over the 21 years. Khwarazm of Uzbekistan, located in the Amu Darya River Delta, is the administrative district with the highest comprehensive risk of sandstorms, and the Balkan State of Turkmenistan and Kashi City and Zepu County in China are the administrative districts with the highest multisectoral risk of sandstorms. The results of this study provide a complete picture of SDS risks in the arid Central Asia region and will provide some guidance to policymakers and local authorities in SDS risk mitigation.
Keywords：
Analytic hierarchy process, Central Asia, Sand and dust storms, Multisectoral risk assessment, Remote sensing
文章链接：
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00591-5