Cite this article：
Blouin, S., Herwix, A., Rivers, M. et al. Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain. Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00574-6
评估灾难性电力损失对食品供应链的影响
Simon Blouin, Alexander Herwix, Morgan Rivers, Ross J. Tieman & David C. Denkenberger
摘要：
食品供应链严重依赖电力，一旦发生长期且广泛的电力中断，将暴露出其严重的脆弱性。本研究提出了一个系统动力学模型，集成了五个关键基础设施领域：电网、液体化石燃料、互联网、交通和人力资源，目的是评估食品供应链在面对大规模停电事件时的恢复能力。本文以2019年委内瑞拉停电事件为案例研究验证了该模型，证明了其预测的有效性。随后，本研究进一步考察了更为极端的电力损失情境对供应链的潜在破坏效应。特别地，通过模拟实验，本文分析了大规模网络攻击和高空电磁脉冲（HEMP）事件对美国电网的影响。模拟结果显示，这样的网络攻击可能会对美国电网造成严重破坏，并需要数周或数月的时间来恢复。这种延长的电力中断可能会导致食品消费量的显著下降。然而，即便在这种情况下，只要实施公平的食物分配措施，仍有可能确保每个人都能获得足够的卡路里摄入。与之形成鲜明对比的是，从影响美国大陆大部分地区的高空电磁脉冲（HEMP）事件中恢复可能需要长达一年的时间，这种情况可能会导致严重的饥荒问题。本研究的分析首次尝试量化了粮食供应随停电时间延长而逐渐恶化的过程。此外，本文开发的开源模型已经公开发布，鼓励研究人员将其应用于本研究中未涉及的其他巨灾情境，例如极端太阳风暴或高致命性流行病的模拟分析。
关键词：
网络攻击，电力，食品供应链，全球灾难性风险，高空电磁脉冲，系统动力学
Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain
Simon Blouin, Alexander Herwix, Morgan Rivers, Ross J. Tieman & David C. Denkenberger
Abstract：
The food supply chain’s heavy reliance on electricity poses significant vulnerabilities in the event of prolonged and widespread power disruptions. This study introduces a system-dynamics model that integrates five critical infrastructures—electric grid, liquid fossil fuels, Internet, transportation, and human workforce—to evaluate the resilience of food supply chains to major power outages. We validated the model using the 2019 Venezuelan blackouts as a case study, demonstrating its predictive validity. We then explored how more extreme electricity losses would disrupt the supply chain. More specifically, we modeled the impact of a large-scale cyberattack on the US electric grid and a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event. A cyberattack severely damaging the US electric grid and allowing for recovery within a few weeks or months would lead to substantial drops in food consumption. However, it would likely still be possible to provide adequate calories to everyone, assuming that food is equitably distributed. In contrast, a year-long recovery from a HEMP event affecting most of the continental United States could precipitate a state of famine. Our analysis represents a first attempt at quantifying how food availability progressively worsens as power outages extend over time. Our open-source model is made publicly available, and we encourage its application to other catastrophic scenarios beyond those specifically considered in this work (for example, extreme solar storms, high-lethality pandemics).
Keywords：
Cyberattack, Electricity, Food supply chains, Global catastrophic risk, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, System dynamics
文章链接：
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00574-6