OpenAI CEO:几千天后我们可能拥有超级智能!

财富   2024-09-26 08:15   北京  


 


美东时间23日,OpenAI CEO萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)在其个人博客上发布一篇题为“智能时代”的文章,预测“智能时代”即将到来,人工智能将在“未来几十年”带来巨大的经济收益。


在博文中,奥特曼展望了AI的未来,认为人类正在进入一个由人工智能驱动的新时代。他预测AI系统将很快成为个人助理,提供定制教育,甚至帮助医疗保健,例如,代表用户协调医疗保健。在未来的某个时候,AI系统将变得如此出色,以至于能帮助我们制造更好的下一代系统,并全面取得科学进步,最终AI系统甚至可能独立完成科学发现。


奥特曼认为“超级智能AI”可能需要更长的发展周期,但预估会在未来“几千天内”出现。他强调深度学习是实现该进展的关键,并表示随着规模的扩大,深度学习的效果也会越来越好。


奥特曼在文章中称,AI已经使我们的能力变得越来越强,可以完成我们的前辈认为不可能完成的事情。有了这些新能力,人类就可以实现难以想象的共同繁荣。在未来,每个人的生活都可以比现在任何人的生活更好。


奥特曼说:“技术将我们从石器时代带到农业时代,然后带到工业时代。从现在开始,通往智能时代的道路将由计算、能源和人类意愿铺平。”据传近期正在开展新一轮融资的奥特曼表示,要充分发挥人工智能的潜力,必须大规模扩展计算能力。否则,人工智能可能会变得稀缺并引发冲突。为此,OpenAI正在与微软合作开展大型数据中心项目。


当然,奥特曼在文末也表示,正如我们在其他技术中看到的那样,AI也会有不利的方面。为此,我们现在需要开始努力,最大限度地发挥AI的裨益,同时最大限度地减少其危害。


以下为奥特曼文章全文:





智能时代


在接下来的几十年里,我们将能够做一些对我们的祖父母来说似乎很神奇的事情。

这种现象并不新鲜,但它会继续加速。随着时间的推移,人们的能力已经变得越来越强,我们现在已经可以完成我们的前辈认为不可能完成的事情。

我们的能力更强并不是因为基因变化,而是因为我们受益于社会的基础设施,它变得比我们任何人都更聪明、更有能力。从重要的意义上说,社会本身就是一种先进智能的形式。

我们的祖父母,以及他们的前辈,创造并取得了伟大的成就。他们为人类进步的框架做出了贡献,我们都从中受益。AI将为人们提供解决难题的工具,并帮助我们为“脚手架”添加我们自己无法解决的“新支柱”。这种进步的故事将继续下去,我们的孩子将能够做我们做不到的事情。

这不会一下子发生,但我们很快就能与AI合作,帮助我们取得比没有AI更大的成就。最终,我们每个人都可以拥有一个个人AI团队,其中充满了不同领域的虚拟专家,共同努力创造几乎任何我们能想象到的东西。

我们的孩子将拥有虚拟导师,他们可以以任何需要的速度提供任何科目、任何语言的个性化教学。我们可以想象类似的想法,以实现更好的医疗保健、创建任何人可以想象的软件的能力等。

有了这些新能力,我们就可以实现今天难以想象的共同繁荣。在未来,每个人的生活都可以比现在任何人的生活更好。仅靠繁荣并不一定能让人们幸福(还有很多悲惨的富人),但它会有意义地改善世界各地人们的生活。

一种看待人类历史的狭隘方式:经过数千年的科学发现和技术进步,我们已经想出了如何融化沙子,添加一些杂质,以惊人的精确度将其以极其微小的规模排列到计算机芯片中,通过它输送能量,最终制造出“能够创造能力越来越强的AI系统”。

这可能是迄今为止所有历史上最重要的事实。几千天后我们可能拥有超级智能!这可能需要更长的时间,但我相信我们会到达那里。

我们是如何到达下一次繁荣飞跃的门口的?

简而言之:通过深度学习。

用15个单词(英文)来说:深度学习发挥了作用。随着规模的增长,可以预见地变得更好,我们为此投入了越来越多的资源。

就是这样。人类发现了一种算法,它可以真正地学习任何数据分布(或者实际上,产生任何数据分布的底层“规则”)。可用的计算和数据越多,它就越能更好地帮助人们解决难题,精确程度令人震惊。我发现,无论我花多少时间思考这个问题,我永远无法真正内化它的重要性。

我们还有很多细节需要弄清楚,但被任何特定的挑战分散注意力都是错误的。深度学习颇有用武之地,我们将解决剩余的问题。关于接下来可能发生的事情,我们可以说还有很多,但最主要的是AI将随着规模的扩大而变得更好,这将为世界各地人们的生活带来有意义的改善。

AI模型很快将充当自主的个人助理,代表我们执行特定任务。例如,代表你协调医疗保健。在未来的某个时候,AI系统将变得如此出色,以至于能帮助我们制造更好的下一代系统,并全面取得科学进步。

技术将我们从石器时代带到农业时代,然后带到工业时代。从现在开始,通往智能时代的道路将由计算、能源和人类意愿铺平。

如果我们想将AI交到尽可能多的人手中,我们需要降低计算成本并使其丰富(这需要大量的能源和芯片)。如果我们不建立足够的基础设施,AI将成为一种非常有限的资源,例如战争会争夺这些资源,或者成为一些富人的工具。

我们需要采取明智的行动,但要有信念。智能时代的到来是一个重大的发展,面临着非常复杂且风险极高的挑战。这不会是一个完全积极的故事,但好处是如此巨大,以至于我们应该为自己和未来弄清楚如何应对我们将面临的风险。

我相信,未来将如此光明,以至于没有人现在就能公正地描述它。智能时代的一个决定性特征将是巨大的繁荣。

尽管它会逐步发生,但令人震惊的胜利,例如修复气候、建立太空殖民地,以及发现所有物理学,最终都将变得司空见惯。凭借近乎无限的智能和丰富的能量(产生伟大想法并实现它们的能力),我们可以做很多事情。

正如我们在其他技术中看到的那样,AI也会有不利的方面。为此,我们现在需要开始努力,最大限度地发挥AI的裨益,同时最大限度地减少其危害。举个例子,我们预计这项技术可以在未来几年内导致劳动力市场发生重大变化(好的和坏的),但大多数工作的变化将比大多数人想象的要慢,而且我并不担心我们会无事可做(即使它们今天看起来不像“真正的工作”)。

人们有一种与生俱来的创造欲望,对彼此有用,AI将使我们能够前所未有地增强自己的能力。作为一个社会,我们将回到一个不断扩张的世界,我们可以再次专注于“正和博弈”。

我们今天所做的许多工作,对于几百年前的人们来说可能只是微不足道的时间浪费,但没有人回顾过去,希望自己是一名“点灯人”。如果一个点灯人能够看到今天的世界,他会认为周围的繁荣是难以想象的。

如果我们能够从今天快进一百年,我们对周围的繁荣也会感觉难以想象。

英文全文

The Intelligence Age

In the next couple of decades, we will be able to do things that would have seemed like magic to our grandparents.


This phenomenon is not new, but it will be newly accelerated. People have become dramatically more capable over time; we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed to be impossible.


We are more capable not because of genetic change, but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and more capable than any one of us; in an important sense, society itself is a form of advanced intelligence. 


Our grandparents – and the generations that came before them – built and achieved great things. They contributed to the scaffolding of human progress that we all benefit from. AI will give people tools to solve hard problems and help us add new struts to that scaffolding that we couldn’t have figured out on our own. The story of progress will continue, and our children will be able to do things we can’t.


It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI; eventually we can each have a personal AI team, full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. 


Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better healthcare, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more.


With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity to a degree that seems unimaginable today; in the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now. Prosperity alone doesn’t necessarily make people happy – there are plenty of miserable rich people – but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world.


Here is one narrow way to look at human history: after thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress, we have figured out how to melt sand, add some impurities, arrange it with astonishing precision at extraordinarily tiny scale into computer chips, run energy through it, and end up with systems capable of creating increasingly capable artificial intelligence.


This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.


How did we get to the doorstep of the next leap in prosperity?


In three words: deep learning worked.


In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it.


That’s really it; humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really, the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data). To a shocking degree of precision, the more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems. I find that no matter how much time I spend thinking about this, I can never really internalize how consequential it is.


There are a lot of details we still have to figure out, but it’s a mistake to get distracted by any particular challenge. Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale, and that will lead to meaningful improvements to the lives of people around the world.


AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. At some point further down the road, AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems and make scientific progress across the board.


Technology brought us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age and then to the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the Intelligence Age is paved with compute, energy, and human will.


If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people.


We need to act wisely but with conviction. The dawn of the Intelligence Age is a momentous development with very complex and extremely high-stakes challenges. It will not be an entirely positive story, but the upside is so tremendous that we owe it to ourselves, and the future, to figure out how to navigate the risks in front of us.


I believe the future is going to be so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now; a defining characteristic of the Intelligence Age will be massive prosperity.


Although it will happen incrementally, astounding triumphs – fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics – will eventually become commonplace. With nearly-limitless intelligence and abundant energy – the ability to generate great ideas, and the ability to make them happen – we can do quite a lot.


As we have seen with other technologies, there will also be downsides, and we need to start working now to maximize AI’s benefits while minimizing its harms. As one example, we expect that this technology can cause a significant change in labor markets (good and bad) in the coming years, but most jobs will change more slowly than most people think, and I have no fear that we’ll run out of things to do (even if they don’t look like “real jobs” to us today). 


People have an innate desire to create and to be useful to each other, and AI will allow us to amplify our own abilities like never before. As a society, we will be back in an expanding world, and we can again focus on playing positive-sum games.


Many of the jobs we do today would have looked like trifling wastes of time to people a few hundred years ago, but nobody is looking back at the past, wishing they were a lamplighter. If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable.


And if we could fast-forward a hundred years from today, the prosperity all around us would feel just as unimaginable.

来源|综合财中社
















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