原文信息：
Analyzing the techno-economic role of nuclear power in the Dutch net-zero energy system transition
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266679242200021X
Highlights
• Nuclear power reduces the hourly electricity prices by 16% on average in 2050.
• Nuclear power reduces the Dutch energy system mitigation costs by 6.2% in 2050.
• Investments in VRES (variable renewable energy sources) remain essential even with nuclear power installations.
• The LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) should not be used alone to show the economic feasibility of nuclear power.
• Electricity trade potential drastically affects economic nuclear power investments.
Abstract
To analyze the role of nuclear power in an integrated energy system, we used the IESA-Opt-N cost minimization model focusing on four key themes: system-wide impacts of nuclear power, uncertain technological costs, flexible generation, and cross-border electricity trade. We demonstrate that the LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) alone should not be used to demonstrate the economic feasibility of a power generation technology. For instance, under the default techno-economic assumptions, particularly the 5% discount rate and exogenous electricity trade potentials, it is cost-optimal for the Netherlands to invest in 9.6 GWe nuclear capacity by 2050. However, its LCOE is 34 €/MWh higher than offshore wind. Moreover, we found that nuclear power investments can reduce demand for variable renewable energy sources in the short term and higher energy independence (i.e., lower imports of natural gas, biomass, and electricity) in the long term. Furthermore, investing in nuclear power can reduce the mitigation costs of the Dutch energy system by 1.6% and 6.2% in 2040 and 2050, and 25% lower national CO2 prices by 2050. However, this cost reduction is not significant given the odds of higher nuclear financing costs and longer construction times. In addition, with 3% interest rate value (e.g., EU taxonomy support), even high cost nuclear (10 B€/GW) can be cost-effective in the Netherlands. In conclusion, under the specific assumptions of this study, nuclear power can play a complementary role (in parallel to the wind and solar power) in supporting the Dutch energy transition from the sole techno-economic point of view.
Keywords
Energy system modeling
Nuclear power
Energy transition
System costs
Cost uncertainty
Fig. 1. Structure of this study. The methodology behind the analyses on four themes of this study is described in the methodology section, while the results are presented in the results section.
Fig. 2. The methodological framework of the IESA-Opt-N model.
Fig. 4. The 2050 primary energy mix in the reference and nuclear scenarios in the Netherlands.
Fig. 5. Flexibility supply by capacity. a) the cumulative histogram of the flexibility capacity demand in the reference and nuclear scenarios in 2050. b) variations in flexibility supply capacity by source in the nuclear scenario compared to the reference scenario in 2050.
Fig. 12. The realized LCOEs under the nuclear scenario in 2050 for intermittent renewables and nuclear technologies.
关于Applied Energy
本期小编：彭维珂 审核人：董增澳
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