原文信息
A novel metric for evaluating hydro-wind-solar energy complementarity
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924013096
Highlights
(1) 分析了现有互补性指标在评估互补性时遇到的挑战
(2) 提出了一种评价对象维度自适应互补性评价新指标
(3) 研究了中国金沙江下游水光风光一体化能源基地的互补性
Research gap
一种新的水风光互补性评价指标，解决了目前诸如皮尔逊，肯达尔，斯皮尔曼等其它改进指标存在的仅能评估两个发电系统之间的互补性，无法同时捕捉时间序列整体变化趋势和相邻时间波动方向的双重负相关性，无法纳入波动幅度影响等局限性，为水风光电源发能力互补性评估, 是否耦合调度判断等方面提供更为可靠的评价指数
Abstract
Accurately assessing complementarity is a foundational work to the hydro-wind-solar hybrid energy system planning and dispatching. However, the existing complementary assessment indexes such as Pearson, Kendall, Spearman coefficient, or other improved indexes, suffer from limitations such as being applicable only to two-dimensional objects, failing to simultaneously capture the fluctuating trend correlations thought the whole evaluation periods and the ramp correlations in the adjacent time periods, and ignoring the impact of the fluctuation amplitudes. To address these issues, we propose a novel complementary assessment metric based on vine structure and rank correlation analysis. Vine structure enables the inclusion of multidimensional assessment object and rank correlation analysis takes into account both the fluctuating trend correlations thought the whole evaluation periods and the ramp correlations in the adjacent time periods. Meanwhile, the introduction of the discount factor allows fluctuation amplitudes impact to be included in the evaluation system. Comparisons based on several typical scenarios verify that the proposed metric can reflect the complementarity between data series more accurately. Subsequently, taking a national-level hydro-wind-solar hybrid energy base in China as the case study, result shows: (1) hydro-wind-solar shows different complementarity at different time scales and significantly better on monthly scales than on annually, daily and hourly time scales; (2) the optimal ratio of wind-solar installed capacity is determined by combining multiple time scales based on the proposed metric.
Keywords
Resource complementarity
Hybrid power systems
Power volatility
Complementary metric
Renewable energy
Graphics
Fig. 2. Vine structure of the proposed metric.
Fig. 10. Multi-timescale synthesis hydro-wind-solar complementarity results under different solar installed capacity ratios.
作者简介
团队介绍：
本研究由大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所和中国长江电力股份有限公司的研究人员共同完成。
关于Applied Energy
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《Applied Energy》是世界能源领域著名学术期刊，在全球出版巨头爱思唯尔 (Elsevier) 旗下，1975年创刊，影响因子10.1，CiteScore 21.2，本刊旨在为清洁能源转换技术、能源过程和系统优化、能源效率、智慧能源、环境污染物及温室气体减排、能源与其他学科交叉融合、以及能源可持续发展等领域提供交流分享和合作的平台。开源（Open Access）姊妹新刊《Advances in Applied Energy》影响因子13.0，CiteScore 23.9。全部论文可以免费下载。在《Applied Energy》的成功经验基础上，致力于发表应用能源领域顶尖科研成果，并为广大科研人员提供一个快速权威的学术交流和发表平台，欢迎关注！
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