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Vice President Kamala Harris has announced a sweeping set of proposals on housing policy, giving voters their first look at what the housing market might look like under a Harris administration.
Harris unveiled the proposals as part of a populist economic plan that marked her first major policy announcement since replacing President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in the 2024 presidential race against Republican Donald Trump.
Her signature housing policy calls for up to $25,000 in federal down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for at least two years.That dramatically expands on Biden’s prior proposal for a $10,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, which had limited additional down-payment assistance to first-generation homebuyers.
The Harris campaign says in a statement that the program would provide down payment assistance to up to 4 million first-time buyers over four years.
Other elements of the plan called for a new tax credit for builders incentivizing the construction of starter homes, curbs on investor purchases of single-family homes, and a ban on shared software platforms used by landlords to set rent, which critics say is a form of price fixing.
Altogether, Harris says she would push for construction of 3 million new housing units over a four-year term. It’s an attainable goal, with U.S. Census Bureau data showing that 1.5 million new privately constructed housing units were completed in 2023 alone.
Her key proposals, including down payment assistance, would require congressional approval. The nonprofit policy group Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the new housing policies Harris proposes would cost $200 billion over four years, and more if they were made permanent.
Harris’ campaign vows follow a massive surge in home values that has left existing homeowners sitting on a mountain of equity, while freezing many prospective first-time buyers out of the market. In May, national home prices were up 48% from four years earlier, according to Case-Schiller.
“As the price of housing has gone up, the size of down payments have gone up as well. Even if aspiring homeowners save for years, it often still is not enough,” Harris said in a speech on Friday in the swing state of North Carolina.
Harris’ down payment proposal was light on specific details—who exactly would qualify for down payment assistance, and how would the funds be distributed? But the plan quickly sparked heated debate, with some housing policy experts praising the proposal and others warning it could fuel runaway increases in home prices.
The Trump campaign also quickly slammed the proposal, with Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance claiming “Kamala Harris wants to give $25,000 to illegal aliens to buy American homes.”
It is unclear whether the Harris plan would have a citizenship requirement, but immigrants present in the country unlawfully are not eligible to apply for traditional, or “conforming,” mortgages. Depending on how the program was administered, that could also make them ineligible for federal assistance with a down payment.
Experts react to Harris’ down payment assistance plan
Several economists who spoke to Realtor.com cautioned that Harris’ plan could backfire by stoking demand in an already hot housing market, driving home prices even higher.
Ken Johnson, a professor of finance and the Walker Chair of Real Estate at the University of Mississippi, warns that offering widespread down payment assistance would be like “throwing gasoline on an already on-fire housing market.”
“The real symptom of what’s going on is that we’re short in supply. We’re dangerously short in supply. We just cannot build homes fast enough,” says Johnson. “You can’t make it easier for people to buy homes, and offer easier credit to buy homes, when you have the housing market so overpriced.”
Johnson argues that to bring home prices back into reach, the government should do more to help small and independent homebuilders secure financing.
One way, he explains, would be to launch a government-sponsored enterprise dedicated to purchasing construction loans, the way Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase mortgages.
Tai Christensen, president of private-sector down payment assistance provider Arrive Home, acknowledges that a federal subsidy for first-time buyers might stoke housing inflation if it were not balanced with an increase in supply.
However, she argues that Harris’ proposed tax credits for homebuilders could offset the inflation risk by stimulating new construction, and that down payment assistance would be an important step to level the playing field and boost opportunities for homeownership.
“Anything that increases homeownership, specifically in marginalized, low- to moderate-income communities, we are in complete support of,” says Christensen. “Homeownership is the No. 1 vehicle for wealth creation for the majority of Americans, and to have opportunities to expand that benefit to more Americans, we’re completely in support of whatever that looks like.”
The National Association of Home Builders praised Harris for making housing and homeownership a centerpiece of her economic agenda.
“We are pleased that the foundation of her plan calls for the construction of 3 million new housing units because the primary way to tackle the nation’s housing affordability crisis is to increase the nation’s housing supply,” said NAHB Chair Carl Harris in a statement.
He said that new tax credits for builders would help boost construction, but warned that “any tax incentive to support the production of starter homes must be targeted to local market conditions and be widely available.”
Carl Harris, no relation to the vice president, also reiterated his group’s longstanding call to cut federal regulations and codes that he says are burdensome and costly to homebuilders.
‘The devil is in the details’
If Kamala Harris does receive congressional approval for a down payment assistance program, it wouldn’t be the first time the federal government has subsidized homebuyers.
In 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis, Congress passed a similar $8,000 credit for first-time homebuyers. But 2009 was a very different situation, when home prices were plunging due to a huge pullback in demand and an influx of buyers was needed to stabilize the market.
Now, many economists believe we are in the opposite sort of crisis: The supply of homes is inadequate to meet demand, pushing home prices out of reach for many families.
“The housing market is still way out of whack compared to where it should be,” says professor Johnson. Following the Great Recession, “We in the U.S. and around the world did not build housing product for a decade, virtually none. So we fell way behind.”
From 1996 to 2006, the U.S. completed an average of 1.6 million new housing units every year. Construction plunged over the following five years, bottoming out at just over a half-million units in 2011. Since then, construction has slowly climbed each year, but it has yet to return to the levels seen prior to the 2007 housing market crash.
As builders constructed fewer homes after the crash, they also began focusing on larger, more expensive homes, which have higher profit margins. In 2015, the median square footage of new single-family homes peaked at 2,473, up from the 2,088 average in the decade through 2006.
New home sizes have slowly tapered since then, but remained well above the pre-financial crisis average last year, at 2,238 square feet.
Harris may hope that, by providing builder tax credits and buyer subsidies specifically in the first-time buyer category, it will stimulate the market for starter homes and encourage more builders to pivot toward more affordable homes suited for first-time homebuyers.
Arrive Home’s Christensen notes that today, the starter home category may often include units in multifamily properties such as duplexes and quads, which are cheaper to build than free-standing homes, but still allow lower-income buyers to start building equity.
“When people think of starter homes, sometimes they have this kind of vision in their head of a white picket fence and a three-bedroom, two-bath rambler with a yard,” she says. “But planned urban developments are typically cheaper than your average suburban neighborhood, and specifically for first-time homebuyers, that’s critical, because they just need to get their foot on the property ladder.”
Matthew S. Roland, assistant dean for the Real Estate Development program and clinical assistant professor at the University at Buffalo School of Architecture and Planning, notes that for an FHA mortgage with 3.5% down, a $25,000 down payment credit could cover the down payment for a home of up to $715,000.
However, at 20% down, the credit would cover the down payment for a home only up to $125,000, a price range that is virtually nonexistent aside from some condo units.
Roland says key questions about the program remained to be answered, including how homebuyers would qualify, whether they’d have to put some of their own money down as well, and whether the funds would be distributed as a tax credit or direct payment to the lender.
“Overall, I think it’s a program that has the potential to help,” says Roland. “That said, the devil is in the details.”
卡玛拉·哈里斯的计划为首次购房者提供2.5万美元的援助，但可能适得其反
作者：基思·格里菲斯
2024年8月22日
美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯宣布了一系列全面的住房政策提案，为选民首次展示了在哈里斯政府下住房市场可能的样貌。
哈里斯在一项民粹经济计划中公布了这些提案，这也是她自接替乔·拜登成为民主党总统候选人以来，在与共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普的2024年总统竞选中首次提出的重大政策声明。
她的标志性住房政策呼吁为首次购房者提供高达2.5万美元的联邦首付款援助，这些购房者必须在过去至少两年内按时支付房租。这大大扩展了拜登之前提出的1万美元首次购房者税收抵免计划，该计划仅限于为第一代购房者提供额外的首付款援助。
哈里斯竞选团队在声明中表示，这项计划将在四年内为多达400万首次购房者提供首付款援助。
计划中的其他内容包括为激励“起步房”建设者提供新税收抵免，限制投资者购买单户住宅，以及禁止房东使用设定租金的共享软件平台——批评者认为这是价格操纵的一种形式。
哈里斯表示，她将在四年任期内推动建设300万套新的住房单元。根据美国人口普查局的数据，这一目标是可以实现的，仅在2023年，美国就完成了150万套新建的私人住房单元。
她的关键提案，包括首付款援助，都需要国会批准。非营利政策团体美国尽责联邦预算委员会估计，哈里斯提出的新住房政策在四年内将花费2000亿美元，如果这些政策成为永久性的，成本会更高。
哈里斯的竞选承诺是在房价大幅上涨之后提出的，这使得现有房主坐拥巨额房屋净值，同时将许多潜在的首次购房者排除在市场之外。根据Case-Schiller的数据，今年5月，全国房价较四年前上涨了48%。
“随着房价的上涨，首付款的规模也在增加。即使有抱负的购房者攒钱多年，通常也不够，”哈里斯在周五于摇摆州北卡罗来纳州发表的演讲中说道。
哈里斯的首付款提案在具体细节上相对含糊——究竟谁有资格获得首付款援助，资金将如何分配？但该计划迅速引发了激烈的讨论，一些住房政策专家赞扬了这一提议，另一些人则警告称这可能会推动房价进一步上涨。
特朗普竞选团队也迅速抨击了这一提案，共和党副总统候选人J.D.万斯声称“卡玛拉·哈里斯想给非法移民2.5万美元来购买美国的房子。”
目前尚不清楚哈里斯的计划是否会有公民身份要求，但非法居住在美国的移民无法申请传统的或“符合标准的”抵押贷款。根据该计划的实施方式，这也可能使他们无法获得联邦首付款援助。
专家对哈里斯首付款援助计划的反应
几位与Realtor.com对话的经济学家警告称，哈里斯的计划可能适得其反，在已经火热的住房市场中进一步刺激需求，推动房价更高。
密西西比大学金融学教授兼房地产沃克主席肯·约翰逊警告说，提供广泛的首付款援助就像“在已经着火的住房市场上再倒一桶油。”
“真正的问题是，我们的供应不足。我们的供应严重不足。我们无法足够快地建造房屋，”约翰逊说。“在房市已经如此高估的情况下，你不能让人们更容易买房，并提供更容易的信贷来买房。”
约翰逊认为，要让房价回到合理范围，政府应该更多地帮助小型和独立的房屋建筑商获得融资。他解释说，一种方法是启动一个政府赞助的企业，专门购买建筑贷款，就像房利美和房地美购买抵押贷款一样。
Arrive Home的首付款援助供应商总裁泰·克里斯滕森承认，如果没有供应的增加，联邦对首次购房者的补贴可能会刺激住房通胀。
然而，她认为哈里斯提议的建筑商税收抵免可以通过刺激新建筑来抵消通胀风险，而首付款援助将是实现公平竞争并增加购房机会的重要一步。
“任何增加住房所有权的措施，尤其是在边缘化的低收入至中等收入社区，我们都完全支持，”克里斯滕森说。“对大多数美国人来说，住房所有权是创造财富的第一途径，如果有机会将这种福利扩展到更多的美国人，我们完全支持，无论这种措施是什么样的。”
全国房屋建筑商协会（NAHB）对哈里斯将住房和购房问题作为她经济议程的核心表示赞赏。
“我们很高兴她的计划基础是建设300万个新的住房单元，因为解决全国住房负担危机的主要方法是增加住房供应，”NAHB主席卡尔·哈里斯在声明中说道。
他表示，新的建筑商税收抵免将有助于推动建设，但同时说，“任何支持起步房生产的税收激励都必须针对当地市场条件并广泛可用。”
与副总统没有关系的卡尔·哈里斯还重申了他的团体长期以来的呼吁，即削减他认为对房屋建筑商来说负担沉重且昂贵的联邦法规和规范。
“细节决定成败”
如果卡玛拉·哈里斯确实获得国会批准首付款援助计划，这将不是联邦政府第一次补贴购房者。
2009年，在全球金融危机的深渊中，国会通过了一项类似的8000美元首次购房者税收抵免。但2009年的情况非常不同，当时由于需求的巨大回落，房价暴跌，市场需要一股买家潮来稳定市场。
现在，许多经济学家认为我们处于相反的危机中：住房供应不足以满足需求，推动房价超出了许多家庭的承受能力。
“相比应有的水平，当前的住房市场仍然严重失衡，”约翰逊教授说。在大衰退之后，“我们在美国和世界各地几乎在十年内没有建造新的住房产品。结果我们远远落后了。”
从1996年到2006年，美国平均每年完成160万个新住房单元的建设。随后的五年中，建设量骤降，2011年降至略高于50万个单元。自那以后，建筑量逐年缓慢攀升，但尚未恢复到2007年住房市场崩溃前的水平。
在崩溃后建筑商建造的房屋减少时，他们也开始专注于建造更大、更昂贵的房屋，因为这些房屋的利润率更高。2015年，新建单户住宅的面积中位数达到峰值，为2473平方英尺，而在2006年前十年的平均值为2088平方英尺。
自那以后，新房的面积有所减少，但2023年仍远高于金融危机前的平均水平，为2238平方英尺。
哈里斯可能希望通过为建筑商提供税收抵免和为购房者提供补贴，特别是在首次购房者类别中，来刺激起步房市场，并鼓励更多建筑商转向适合首次购房者的可负担住房。
Arrive Home的克里斯滕森指出，如今，起步房类别往往包括多户住宅中的单元，如双拼住宅和四单元房，它们比独立住宅建造成本更低，但仍然可以让低收入购房者开始积累资产。
“当人们想到起步房时，有时他们脑海中会有一种白色篱笆和带院子的三居室两浴室平房的愿景，”她说。“但计划中的城市开发项目通常比普通的郊区社区便宜，而对于首次购房者来说，这一点至关重要，因为他们只需要踏上住房阶梯。”
布法罗大学建筑与规划学院房地产开发项目助理院长兼临床助理教授马修·S·罗兰指出，对于首付3.5%的FHA抵押贷款，2.5万美元的首付款信用额度可以覆盖高达71.5万美元的房屋的首付款。
然而，对于首付20%的房屋，信用额度只能覆盖高达12.5万美元的房屋的首付款，这一价格区间除了某些公寓单元外几乎不存在。
罗兰表示，该计划的关键问题仍需回答，包括购房者如何获得资格，他们是否还需要投入一些自己的资金，以及资金是否将以税收抵免或直接支付给贷款机构的形式分配。
“总体而言，我认为这是一个有潜力帮助的计划，”罗兰说。“不过，细节决定成败。”
