Goldman Sachs Asset Management is predicting 2025 will be the “year of generating income.”
高盛资产管理公司预测，2025年将是“收入创造之年”
The firm expects less upside for equities going forward and suggests that adding income-earning assets to a portfolio could help produce the same type of returns that investors enjoyed this past year, said Ashish Shah, the firm’s chief investment officer of public investing.
公募投资首席投资官Ashish Shah表示，高盛公司预计，未来股票的上涨空间将有限，并建议在投资组合中加入收入型资产，以帮助获得与过去一年类似的回报。
Equities and Volatility
股票与波动性
“Valuations are high enough that if you can figure out how to reduce the volatility of your assets, generate income, and still capture some of that equity upside, that’s going to be what works in 2025,” Shah said on Goldman’s 2025 outlook conference call. Still, investors are going to have to get creative in how they generate income, since credit spreads are tight, he said in a separate interview with CNBC.
“目前估值已经很高，如果你能找到减少资产波动、创造收入，并且仍能捕捉部分股市上涨机会的方式，这将在2025年取得成功。”Shah在高盛的2025年展望电话会议中表示。然而，他在接受CNBC采访时指出，投资者需要更加富有创意地寻找收入来源，因为信用利差已经缩小。
Spreads measure the difference in yield between Treasurys and other fixed-income assets of the same maturity. In addition, “easy” income, such as the high yields in cash-equivalent accounts like money market funds or in Treasury bills, will be tougher to find as the Federal Reserve continues its rate cut cycle, Shah added.
利差衡量的是国债和其他到期时间相同的固定收益资产之间的收益差异。此外，Shah还补充道，随着美联储继续降息周期，“轻松”的收入来源，如货币市场基金或国库券中的高收益，将越来越难找到。
For instance, the annualized seven-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 4.46%. That’s down from the 5.20% high at the end of last year, according to Crane Data, a firm that tracks money markets.
例如，Crane Data公司追踪的Crane 100名单中，100只最大税收货币基金的年化七天收益率目前为4.46%。根据Crane Data的数据，这一收益率从去年年底的5.20%降了下来。
Three Ways to Generate Income in 2025
2025年获取额外收入的三种方式
Here are three ways investors can nab some extra income next year, according to Shah:
根据Shah的建议，以下是投资者在明年获取额外收入的三种方式：
Options Strategies
期权策略
Investors can employ an options strategy called buy-write, which entails buying a stock and then selling call options against those shares. Investors can get the capital appreciation from the stock at the same time they earn income from the options, Shah said.
投资者可以使用一种叫做“买入并沽出期权”的期权策略，即购买股票并卖出与这些股票相关的看涨期权。Shah表示，投资者可以在获取股票资本增值的同时，通过期权赚取收入。
There are funds that employ this strategy, including exchange-traded funds from Goldman. One focuses on the S&P 500 — Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Core Premium Income ETF (GPIX) and another on the Nasdaq-100 index — Goldman Sachs Nasdaq-100 Core Premium Income ETF (GPIQ).
包括高盛的交易型基金在内的许多基金采用这种策略。其中一个是专注于标准普尔500指数——高盛标准普尔500核心优质收入ETF（GPIX）；另一个是专注于纳斯达克100指数——高盛纳斯达克100核心优质收入ETF（GPIQ）。
High-Yield Municipal Bonds
高收益市政债券
Shah also sees opportunity for income within high-yield municipal bonds. These assets are generally favored by high-income investors since the income is free of federal taxes. It is also exempt from state taxes if the investor resides in the same state as the bond issuer.
Shah还看好高收益市政债券中的收入机会。这些资产通常受到高收入投资者的青睐，因为它们的收入免于联邦税收。如果投资者居住在发行债券的同一州，该收入还可以免于州税。
“Municipal high yield is a good way of generating income that can compete with your appreciation,” Shah said. There are still pretty healthy yields in muni bonds further out on the curve, he noted. There is also plenty of infrastructure such as roads and ports that remain to be funded, he added.
“市政高收益是产生与资本增值竞争的收入的好方式。”Shah表示。他指出，市政债券的远期收益仍然相当健康。他还补充道，仍然有大量的基础设施（如道路和港口）需要融资。
Dividend Stocks and Bonds
股息股票和债券
Investors can also turn to more traditional forms of income in dividend stocks and fixed income, Shah said. He envisions it as a balanced portfolio but delivered in a different way. The equities portion is focused less on pure capital appreciation and stocks with high price-to-earnings multiples, and more on companies that are generating cash flow and paying dividends. Fixed income consists of high-yielding securities, which tend to be riskier than investment-grade bonds.
Shah表示，投资者还可以转向更传统的收入来源，如股息股票和固定收益。他认为，这是一种平衡的投资组合，但以不同的方式呈现。股权部分较少关注纯粹的资本增值和高市盈率的股票，而更多地关注那些产生现金流并支付股息的公司。固定收益部分则由高收益证券组成，这些证券通常比投资级债券风险更大。
“If you buy the stocks that have bond-like characteristics and the bonds that have stock-like characteristics, they generate more income,” he said. Shah particularly likes securitized products in the fixed income bucket. There is some protection from direct losses that might result from defaults affecting small fractions of a portfolio, but investors still get the income pickup to more than compensate, he said.
“如果你购买那些具有债券特征的股票和具有股票特征的债券，它们能产生更多的收入。”他说。Shah尤其喜欢固定收益部分的证券化产品。他表示，这些产品可以在一定程度上保护投资者免受违约等直接损失的影响，同时投资者仍能获得足够的收入回报以弥补风险。
Within securitized products, he sees opportunities in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which are securitized pools of floating-rate loans to businesses. They sometimes include non-investment-grade borrowers. He also sees opportunity in commercial mortgage-backed securities. “Lending to commercial properties is an area where you are still benefiting from banks pulling back” on such loans, Shah said. “Fundamentals in those spaces are generally bottoming, so you can do a better job of understanding the downside risk that you are bearing of the income you are generating.”
在证券化产品中，他看到了担保贷款义务（CLOs）的机会，这是一种针对企业的浮动利率贷款池的证券化产品，有时包括非投资级借款人。他还看到了商业抵押贷款支持证券的机会。Shah表示：“贷款给商业房地产是一个你仍然能从银行撤出贷款的趋势中获益的领域。该领域的基本面通常已经触底，因此你可以更好地理解你承担的风险，同时也能获得收入。”
Finding the Best Opportunities
寻找最佳机会
However, investors should not necessarily focus on choosing just one of these strategies, Shah said. “We believe that rather than pick one of those, you can generate good income by finding the best opportunities across those three markets — a mix of buy-write when it is timely, dividend-paying companies, and high-yielding bonds,” he said.
然而，Shah表示，投资者不必只专注于选择其中一种策略。“我们认为，与其选择其中之一，不如通过在这三大市场中寻找最佳机会来生成良好的收入。当时机合适时，结合买入并沽出期权的策略、支付股息的公司和高收益债券。”他说。
“Doing that mix actually allows you to construct a portfolio where you generate the most attractive risk-return income that is available in the marketplace,” he added.
“这样组合实际上允许你构建一个投资组合，能够在市场上获得最具吸引力的风险回报收入。”他补充道。
Please note that this article is intended as English learning material in financial aspects and does not constitute financial and investment advice.
请注意：本文旨在作为金融方面的英语学习材料，不构成财务和投资建议。
